OPEC’s position on the Peak Oil question should be the decisive factor in the ongoing and seemingly inconclusive debate on this issue. OPEC supplies about 42 percent of world petroleum consumption. Unlike all other producers, OPEC members have quotas that are adjusted to insure that total supply and demand are in equilibrium. If non-OPEC production were to reach a plateau or begin to decline, OPEC producers would need to increase production substantially to meet ever-increasing world demand. While OPEC’s claimed proven reserves might be adequate, large investments would need to be made over many years to install the required extraction capacity.


Yet OPEC has been virtually silent on this issue. This cannot be due to lack of interest or expertise: it now has its own research group that produces an annual World Oil Outlook and a Monthly Market Report that are equal to the best produced by any other energy forecasting group. OPEC is certainly aware of the USGS World Petroleum Assessment (2000), and the analyses of these results, as well as ExxonMobil’s projection of a non-OPEC production peak by 2010 and the extensive discussion of petroleum resources in trade journals and the popular press. Thus, the reasons for not publicly engaging in this debate must be found outside the rational business of drilling wells, building pipelines and refineries, and making market forecasts.