In the third week of June, the price of oil reached $58 a barrel. It could reach $60 before the summer ends. To forestall this possibility and send prices down, Saudi Arabia has promised to increase its production. But the Arab kingdom has made that promise twice recently, and failed to increase its production both times. Two explanations have been offered for the Saudis' behavior. The first is that the nation doesn't want to release more oil because it likes putting the screws to the West. The second is that it can't release more oil because there is no more oil.
The second hypothesis is not crazy. There are some sane and knowledgeable people who subscribe to it. One of them is Matthew Simmons, an energy advisor to George W. Bush. But there are also some silly people who subscribe to it. One of these is James Howard Kunstler. Simmons, in his book Twilight in the Desert, makes a persuasive case that Saudi Arabia has been overstating its oil reserves for years, and he offers policy recommendations for dealing with this reality. Kunstler, in his book The Long Emergency, skips the evidence and the policy and decides that the end times are upon us. The oil age will end, alternative fuels won't save us, and the planet will enter a period of strife and instability called the Long Emergency.
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In the third week of June, the price of oil reached $58 a barrel. It could reach $60 before the summer ends. To forestall this possibility and send prices down, Saudi Arabia has promised to increase its production. But the Arab kingdom has made that promise twice recently, and failed to increase its production both times. Two explanations have been offered for the Saudis' behavior. The first is that the nation doesn't want to release more oil because it likes putting the screws to the West. The second is that it can't release more oil because there is no more oil.
