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Yes, next week will be extremely interesting...

Pup, I believe that in your prediction for this week you did not consider the fact that Gustav's path probably blocked the normal approach of a number of cargos (from Venezuela, Nigeria, etc.) that no ...

This is odd:

http://img403.imageshack.us/img403/9153/finishedmotorgasolineenkd5.th.jpgWhile inventories continue to fluctuate seasonally,
the average level has remained flat since the last
study. ...

Forgive me for stating something that seems obvious and asking how big a factor it is. I am constantly hearig that profit margins for gasoline from USA refiners are break even at best and they are ma ...

Is it possible that the U.S. Gov't is purchasing huge lots of futures at these prices to hedge against assumed future price increases?
No, the US gov. already has a very significant hedge: The Strate ...

I thought gasoline demand was only down 2.4 percent at its most a few weeks back compared to a year ago? According to the inventory report, products supplied fell by 2.8 percent from last year, not 1. ...

Ok, an opinion on the present course of the crude oil situation:

An important new fact that has been driving down the crude prices is a very strong selling pressure in the Dec 2009 to Dec 2012 CL ...

Yes, as always, we must thank Pup for another excellent weekly prediction.

If I had to change anything in Pup's analysis, I would go for 10 Mb/d of crude imports, instead of 10.1.
(I find if hard ...

I see pup is getting closer to accept the imports reasoning that I presented some time ago.
I think that remains the correct point of view (that is, until something shows up that forces us to think o ...

I have noticed that when the US has a bearish report that the WTI price drops below the Brent. It seems like the Brent is forcing the WTI price but I have done no analysis to back that up.
That is ve ...

We have already discussed here a number of points that mean that predicting the crude imports (or, more to the point, the value that EIA presents as each weeks imports, which is somewhat different fro ...

Simmons' presentation is excelent.

This may represent the initial reduction in imports due to the well known problems in Nigeria.
If that is so, we can expect similar values (or perhaps a trifle higher) for the next few (2 to 3) weeks ...

Stupidity and irrationality are impervious to reason.

Of course, they always fail to achieve the desired results, but real stupidity (like JD's, Stupak's, Pelosi's...) never accepts defeat!
Those ...

Everything is on track in the last weekly IEA reports, except for the crude imports.

I am a little surprised by the last 2 values, since they were significantly above my expectations.
However, I ...