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I think this is the beginnings of an economy based on perpetual growth and fossil fuel energy running headlong into geological energy constraints. Basically I see an undulatory downward path for the rest of my life. From here out, I think any rallies in our economic condition are going to be met with spiking commodity prices that knock us right back down.

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  Topic: oil price coverage explodes
Qolio

Replies: 2
Views: 503

PostForum: Current Events   Posted: Fri May 30, 2008 8:32 pm   Subject: Re: oil price coverage explodes
Indeed. Yesterday there was a similar front page headline in our biggest financial newspaper:
http://img142.imageshack.us/img142/4379/kletusivupb3.png
And I was very surprised when they actually men ...
  Topic: Gasoline demand way down in February.
Qolio

Replies: 16
Views: 1256

PostForum: Current Events   Posted: Tue Apr 29, 2008 4:56 pm   Subject: Re: Gasoline demand way down in February.
Here's a nice pic that was linked in an http://tonto.eia.doe.gov/oog/info/twip/gtpsusm.gif

So there is a drop, even if you calculate the demand Mb/d. But to me it looks like normal seasonal variati ...
  Topic: Global Cooling Question
Qolio

Replies: 16
Views: 2054

PostForum: Environment   Posted: Wed Mar 12, 2008 1:50 am   Subject: Re: Global Cooling Question

Question: If the world climate falls into a long cold period, or a new ice age (like in "The Day After Tomorrow"), then will Al Gore, the IPCC, and other people warning about global warming (rising ...
  Topic: US embassy in Ottawa looks like a nuclear plant
Qolio

Replies: 7
Views: 1631

PostForum: Americas Discussion   Posted: Mon Nov 12, 2007 6:19 am   Subject: Re: US embassy in Ottawa looks like a nuclear plant
A nuclear plant? It's a submarine!!
http://www.fineart.utoronto.ca/canarch/ontario/ottawa.jpgs/usa.embassy.jpg

I just had to amuse myself by googling for some embassy pictures.. [url=http://galler ...
  Topic: Senators Ask Government to Stop Adding Oil to US Reserve
Qolio

Replies: 3
Views: 760

PostForum: Current Events   Posted: Fri Oct 19, 2007 6:08 pm   Subject: Re: Senators Ask Government to Stop Adding Oil to US Reserve
IMHO now is the right time to fill up emergency reserves, when the worst times are still ahead. High oil price is not an emergency.
  Topic: Whats with the inflation adjusted price changing from 80 to.
Qolio

Replies: 19
Views: 1887

PostForum: Current Events   Posted: Wed Oct 17, 2007 11:16 pm   Subject: Re: Whats with the inflation adjusted price changing from 80

True inflation is an increase in the money supply (period), which has been running over 12% YOY. This increase in the money supply then translates into higher prices, which most folks call 'inflati ...
  Topic: Oil breaks $85.00
Qolio

Replies: 30
Views: 3516

PostForum: Current Events   Posted: Mon Oct 15, 2007 1:56 pm   Subject: Re: Oil breaks $85.00
Back in 2004, I always found fascinating the articles by Andrew McKillop that rising oil prices actually increased demand usage. Its probably time to review his older articles. In the older 2004 art ...
  Topic: Record ice loss in Arctic
Qolio

Replies: 871
Views: 93039

PostForum: Environment   Posted: Sat Oct 13, 2007 12:29 am   Subject: Re: Record ice loss in Arctic
Check out

That's way, way too short of a timeline to make any judgment. And the fast melt rate during the last month or two might just be noise in the system. (Not being a denier or non-denier, ...
  Topic: Question for EU Citizens with regards to EU Constitution
Qolio

Replies: 15
Views: 3545

PostForum: Europe Discussion   Posted: Thu Oct 11, 2007 11:00 pm   Subject: Re: Question for EU Citizens with regards to EU Constitution
Our national parliament ratified the constitution so we didn't have to bother our little heads with such decision.

I would've voted no, just because I didn't (and I still quite don't) know what the ...
  Topic: Modeling Oil Production to Estimate URR - SA, Kuwait & w
Qolio

Replies: 6
Views: 2607

PostForum: Depletion Modeling   Posted: Sun Sep 30, 2007 6:13 pm   Subject: Re: Modeling Oil Production to Estimate URR - SA, Kuwait &am
Unstable? Why? Care to plug some numbers into the equations and show that out explicitly?
I don't know where to get the data so I'll demonstrate my point with an imaginary example:

Lets look at th ...
  Topic: Modeling Oil Production to Estimate URR - SA, Kuwait & w
Qolio

Replies: 6
Views: 2607

PostForum: Depletion Modeling   Posted: Sun Sep 30, 2007 12:11 pm   Subject: Re: Modeling Oil Production to Estimate URR - SA, Kuwait &am
I'm sorry, but imho that whole analysis is nonsense. Like many people in TOD's discussion already pointed out, he's overfitting the data. You can fit any data if you have enough variables, but at the ...
  Topic: Record ice loss in Arctic
Qolio

Replies: 871
Views: 93039

PostForum: Environment   Posted: Fri Aug 31, 2007 1:37 am   Subject: Re: Possible record ice loss in Arctic

If the pattern repeats from last year the next four weeks will be quasi-stable around the current level, up and down small amounts but nothing significant. Then the last week of September/first wee ...
  Topic: Record ice loss in Arctic
Qolio

Replies: 871
Views: 93039

PostForum: Environment   Posted: Sun Aug 26, 2007 2:29 pm   Subject: Re: Possible record ice loss in Arctic
Last year the Arctic started out with just over 5 Mkm^2 in September. Freezing in the Arctic was slow due to the years 2002-2006 of additional open water reducing the perennial ice and absorbing more ...
  Topic: Global Warming Cult Makes Death Threats To Scientists
Qolio

Replies: 36
Views: 4171

PostForum: Environment   Posted: Sun Aug 19, 2007 9:51 pm   Subject: Re: Global Warming Cult Makes Death Threats To Scientists

Scientists threatened for 'climate denial'
So who are the other scientists? The article mentions only one.

I smell propaganda...
  Topic: Crude Oil Falls on OPEC Output Incr, Slower Economic Growth
Qolio

Replies: 9
Views: 1616

PostForum: Current Events   Posted: Mon Aug 06, 2007 3:11 pm   Subject: Re: Crude Oil Falls on OPEC Output Incr, Slower Economic Gro

But isn't this article saying output rose 85,000 bbd overall?
I think it says quite clearly that the 85,000bpd increase doesn't include Iraq and Angola.
 
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