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Meanwhile, keep watching for shortage reports, because we should start seeing some sneak in this week, if our doom-o-meter is calibrated correctly.

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  Topic: Michael Lynch - Disputing Peak Oil
ReserveGrowthRulz

Replies: 1831
Views: 258322

PostForum: Peak Oil Discussion   Posted: Tue Dec 04, 2007 8:57 pm   Subject: Re: Michael Lynch - Disputing Peak Oil
Hmm, I was just going by what the CEO of China National Petroleum Corporation (CNPC) confessed to about a week ago. He said the import price of crude was higher than the domestic sales price of gasoli ...
  Topic: Michael Lynch - Disputing Peak Oil
ReserveGrowthRulz

Replies: 1831
Views: 258322

PostForum: Peak Oil Discussion   Posted: Tue Dec 04, 2007 8:53 pm   Subject: Re: Michael Lynch - Disputing Peak Oil
RGR,

You always argue sarcastically that we've past peak oil and, say see, its no big deal. You should realize this is wrong for two reasons:

(1) There's no consensus yet, even among pessimist ...
  Topic: Peak Oil : Scalability and Orders of Magnitude
ReserveGrowthRulz

Replies: 283
Views: 13872

PostForum: Peak Oil Discussion   Posted: Tue Dec 04, 2007 8:06 pm   Subject: Re: Peak Oil : Scalability and Orders of Magnitude
With an unlimited number of sycophants available, it is possible to create reinforcement of delusional conclusions....I've often wondered about the purpose of this site, since most of it seems to be f ...
  Topic: Peak Oil : Scalability and Orders of Magnitude
ReserveGrowthRulz

Replies: 283
Views: 13872

PostForum: Peak Oil Discussion   Posted: Tue Dec 04, 2007 7:56 pm   Subject: Re: Peak Oil : Scalability and Orders of Magnitude


Suspect or not, we are still in overshoot. Look out the window.

I did. Nothing new. Peak oil can't even cause traffic jams to go away, so if you can't get the gullible into buying that line of ...
  Topic: Peak Oil : Scalability and Orders of Magnitude
ReserveGrowthRulz

Replies: 283
Views: 13872

PostForum: Peak Oil Discussion   Posted: Tue Dec 04, 2007 7:51 pm   Subject: Re: Peak Oil : Scalability and Orders of Magnitude
I can even give you Smalley's 2X if you'd like. Of course, he claims that none of this can happen without new technology, and he's wrong on that point as well. But the hysterical way in which he advo ...
  Topic: Peak Oil : Scalability and Orders of Magnitude
ReserveGrowthRulz

Replies: 283
Views: 13872

PostForum: Peak Oil Discussion   Posted: Tue Dec 04, 2007 7:45 pm   Subject: Re: Peak Oil : Scalability and Orders of Magnitude
RGR,

You are ignoring the law of diminishing returns.

The 21% growth rate of renewable energy will not continue indefinitely.


I already knew that the high end growth was a ridiculous numb ...
  Topic: Peak Oil : Scalability and Orders of Magnitude
ReserveGrowthRulz

Replies: 283
Views: 13872

PostForum: Peak Oil Discussion   Posted: Tue Dec 04, 2007 7:37 pm   Subject: Re: Peak Oil : Scalability and Orders of Magnitude
In my locale, neither the rails nor the rights of way exist. You can still see where the train used to run, but the train is gone and it ain't comin' back. Sad

I heard similar lines of thought r ...
  Topic: Peak Oil : Scalability and Orders of Magnitude
ReserveGrowthRulz

Replies: 283
Views: 13872

PostForum: Peak Oil Discussion   Posted: Tue Dec 04, 2007 7:31 pm   Subject: Re: Peak Oil : Scalability and Orders of Magnitude

We added 5,714MW of capacity in 2007. That represents a growth rate of 21.6%.

Now that's an unrealistic rate of growth because by 2050, renewable energy production would exceed demand by 66,000% ...
  Topic: Peak Oil : Scalability and Orders of Magnitude
ReserveGrowthRulz

Replies: 283
Views: 13872

PostForum: Peak Oil Discussion   Posted: Tue Dec 04, 2007 7:26 pm   Subject: Re: Peak Oil : Scalability and Orders of Magnitude


To take a shot at bringing this topic back to the original scalability discussion, perhaps it is ultimately the industrialization of food production that facilitates population growth, and in the ...
  Topic: Peak Oil : Scalability and Orders of Magnitude
ReserveGrowthRulz

Replies: 283
Views: 13872

PostForum: Peak Oil Discussion   Posted: Tue Dec 04, 2007 7:15 pm   Subject: Re: Peak Oil : Scalability and Orders of Magnitude


10 billion is 7 to 8 beyond carrying capacity.Based on what?

Well...maybe if he says it enough times, people will forget about Ehrlich and the accuracy of his same predictions and pretend its t ...
  Topic: Peak Oil : Scalability and Orders of Magnitude
ReserveGrowthRulz

Replies: 283
Views: 13872

PostForum: Peak Oil Discussion   Posted: Tue Dec 04, 2007 7:08 pm   Subject: Re: Peak Oil : Scalability and Orders of Magnitude
Trying your old strawman tricks on me again?

Strawman? Bet it's not. What do you think about overshoot and the coming die-off?



That it is concocted by psychologically damaged people who nev ...
  Topic: Peak Oil : Scalability and Orders of Magnitude
ReserveGrowthRulz

Replies: 283
Views: 13872

PostForum: Peak Oil Discussion   Posted: Tue Dec 04, 2007 1:45 pm   Subject: Re: Peak Oil : Scalability and Orders of Magnitude


Using exponential increases as explained by Bartlett, its quite easy to generate reasonable increases in whatever within reasonable timeframes.

Good lord!

And what is happening to demand at ...
  Topic: Michael Lynch - Disputing Peak Oil
ReserveGrowthRulz

Replies: 1831
Views: 258322

PostForum: Peak Oil Discussion   Posted: Tue Dec 04, 2007 9:53 am   Subject: Re: Michael Lynch - Disputing Peak Oil
Look, I nor does anyone else have all the answers - no crystal balls but there are a lot of trends I have seen on the ground, on the drilling ships, platforms, spars around the world working as an eng ...
  Topic: Peak Oil : Scalability and Orders of Magnitude
ReserveGrowthRulz

Replies: 283
Views: 13872

PostForum: Peak Oil Discussion   Posted: Tue Dec 04, 2007 1:46 am   Subject: Re: Peak Oil : Scalability and Orders of Magnitude
I do know that shading all the desert in Arizona for cheap electrical generation for the rest of the country is a reasonable trade for a cleaner energy future.

Ecologically, you don't know. And ...
  Topic: Peak Oil : Scalability and Orders of Magnitude
ReserveGrowthRulz

Replies: 283
Views: 13872

PostForum: Peak Oil Discussion   Posted: Tue Dec 04, 2007 1:35 am   Subject: Re: Peak Oil : Scalability and Orders of Magnitude


Not to belabor the population point here, but a ways back Monte noted that a one-child policy could keep us to 7.5 B in 25 years. What if people couldn't have (or were extremely discouraged from) ...
 
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