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Hoarding is exactly what the government is doing right now by filling the SPR, and frankly it's the best thing that could happen. It drives prices up. High prices encourage demand destruction. They also finance new well development. The hoarded oil gives us a buffer to fall back on once shortages become more prevalent. High prices are what we need in order to adapt to what's coming, and the sooner they happen, the better.

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  Topic: Enigma solved for reserve growth
WebHubbleTelescope

Replies: 3
Views: 332

PostForum: Depletion Modeling   Posted: Wed Jul 16, 2008 9:25 pm   Subject: Re: Enigma solved for reserve growth
The formating at least on IE at the mobjectivist site has the graphs blocking the text.

Thanks. Adjusted the formatting to meet the special needs of Microsoft products. After all these years of us ...
  Topic: Enigma solved for reserve growth
WebHubbleTelescope

Replies: 3
Views: 332

PostForum: Depletion Modeling   Posted: Sun Jul 13, 2008 5:52 pm   Subject: Re: Enigma solved for reserve growth
The formating at least on IE at the mobjectivist site has the graphs blocking the text.

Thanks. Adjusted the formatting to meet the special needs of Microsoft products. After all these years of us ...
  Topic: Enigma solved for reserve growth
WebHubbleTelescope

Replies: 3
Views: 332

PostForum: Depletion Modeling   Posted: Sun Jul 13, 2008 8:58 am   Subject: Enigma solved for reserve growth
The reserve growth enigma solved:
http://mobjectivist.blogspot.com/2008/07/role-of-dispersive-discovery-in-reserve.html

This builds on the Dispersive Discovery model and replaces cheap heuristics ...
  Topic: Derivation of the Logistic model of oil depletion
WebHubbleTelescope

Replies: 2
Views: 437

PostForum: Depletion Modeling   Posted: Sat Jun 28, 2008 1:16 pm   Subject: Re: Derivation of the Logistic model of oil depletion
Numbers don't lie.Indeed, and liars don't count.

I liked this comment I got on TheOilDrum:
"WHT analysis would have been important in the 1920-1930's but its 2008 now and they seems to have done ...
  Topic: Derivation of the Logistic model of oil depletion
WebHubbleTelescope

Replies: 2
Views: 437

PostForum: Depletion Modeling   Posted: Sat Jun 28, 2008 9:44 am   Subject: Derivation of the Logistic model of oil depletion
See this TOD post of mine:
http://www.theoildrum.com/node/4171

It finally explains the classic shape of the Hubbert peak.

IMO this is a first-principles derivation that doesn't use the Verhulst ...
  Topic: Limbaugh speaks about OIL!!!
WebHubbleTelescope

Replies: 24
Views: 3074

PostForum: Peak Oil Discussion   Posted: Thu May 15, 2008 11:58 pm   Subject: Re: Limbaugh speaks about OIL!!!
Limbaugh talkin' oil?
Endless supply of oil as his inner thighs rub against each other and produce gravy. (courtesy of an old Letterman line)
  Topic: Busting the Hubbert Myths Part I
WebHubbleTelescope

Replies: 15
Views: 2813

PostForum: Depletion Modeling   Posted: Fri Apr 25, 2008 8:49 pm   Subject: Re: Busting the Hubbert Myths Part I

Apologies for the confusion, but I thought that mathematical modeling of future trends based on observed statistical data is about as empirical as it gets, then it occured to me that most of the cur ...
  Topic: Busting the Hubbert Myths Part I
WebHubbleTelescope

Replies: 15
Views: 2813

PostForum: Depletion Modeling   Posted: Thu Apr 24, 2008 9:17 pm   Subject: Re: Busting the Hubbert Myths Part I
It's almost as if they think that oil depletion analysis is a branch of economics, where all you really have are empirical observations.

As opposed to deductive reasoning? I can't tell if you're b ...
  Topic: Busting the Hubbert Myths Part I
WebHubbleTelescope

Replies: 15
Views: 2813

PostForum: Depletion Modeling   Posted: Wed Apr 23, 2008 8:27 pm   Subject: Re: Busting the Hubbert Myths Part I

Interesting that


Thanks for the link, I had a feeling the reaction might be "old news".

I just think it's a shame that Hubbert clearly had advanced his analysis well beyond what most people ...
  Topic: Busting the Hubbert Myths Part I
WebHubbleTelescope

Replies: 15
Views: 2813

PostForum: Depletion Modeling   Posted: Tue Apr 22, 2008 9:38 pm   Subject: Re: Busting the Hubbert Myths Part I

Now that we know the inflection point lies halfway between the peaks in the discovery and production curves, and we know that the world inflection point was 15 years after the peak in discovery, we ...
  Topic: Busting the Hubbert Myths Part I
WebHubbleTelescope

Replies: 15
Views: 2813

PostForum: Depletion Modeling   Posted: Mon Apr 21, 2008 8:32 pm   Subject: Re: Busting the Hubbert Myths Part I
Thanks WHT, I appreciate your support.

I know this is a long shot, but would you happen to know if Laherrere has seen the article? Clearly you and others (Khebab) have the math chops to revisit Hu ...
  Topic: Busting the Hubbert Myths Part I
WebHubbleTelescope

Replies: 15
Views: 2813

PostForum: Depletion Modeling   Posted: Sat Apr 19, 2008 9:03 pm   Subject: Re: Busting the Hubbert Myths Part I
I recently transcribed a long and detailed analysis of fossil fuels written by Hubbert in 1976 for an energy textbook. The Hubbert Tribute site graciously agreed to host the article here:

http://m ...
  Topic: Michael Lynch - Disputing Peak Oil
WebHubbleTelescope

Replies: 1831
Views: 252834

PostForum: Peak Oil Discussion   Posted: Wed Feb 27, 2008 11:56 pm   Subject: Re: Michael Lynch - Disputing Peak Oil
Lynch seems to be getting bolder:
"Crude-oil inventories are starting to look very healthy and gasoline inventories are tremendous,'' said Michael Lynch, president of Strategic Energy & Economic ...
  Topic: Peak Oil: The Big Fizzle
WebHubbleTelescope

Replies: 207
Views: 16414

PostForum: Peak Oil Discussion   Posted: Wed Dec 12, 2007 9:25 pm   Subject: Re: Peak Oil: The Big Fizzle
I don't know what kind of crap JD is trying to pull. You fight empty rhetoric with empty rhetoric. By his logic we shouldn't even be talking about anything because it was all preordained almost 50 ye ...
  Topic: Peak Oil: The Big Fizzle
WebHubbleTelescope

Replies: 207
Views: 16414

PostForum: Peak Oil Discussion   Posted: Tue Dec 11, 2007 11:21 pm   Subject: Re: Peak Oil: The Big Fizzle
I don't know what kind of crap JD is trying to pull. You fight empty rhetoric with empty rhetoric. By his logic we shouldn't even be talking about anything because it was all preordained almost 50 ye ...
 
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