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make would make flying more affordable to a great numbers

Right - we can take the "widget" to be something like "communicate with supplier to straighten out a quality problem". In the old days, ...

Here is a super simple example of how Jevon's paradox can work. I.e., we can end up using more petroleum when we get more efficient in our use of it.

Suppose we have two possible processes by which ...

Hi Chris,

I am interested in system dynamics and modeling & applying these to resource depletion etc.

I can't say I am any big expert exactly in "system dynamics" but I have a Masters degre ...

The ELM is an interesting notion but there are a flock of parameters that could affect how things turn out for a producer on the downslope

There are two ways to work with models like this - the ...

Since oil prices are in the news these days, I thought I should post the variation in price generated by the simulation that produces the production/consumption graph above:

http://i140.photobucket ...

I am starting to learn C#. So that gives me a bigger hammer than Excel to let me crunch equations!

The linear supply/demand curves I had above were clearly too simplistic - the possibility of them ...

A curious feature of some solutions of this model - the price can go negative. This means that production is actually less that the straight logistic equation would predict. Thinking about this, I rea ...

One thing that makes this simulation hard to understand is that I took a big leap from the usual logistic - I added price sensitivity to the production, and I created two competing consumers with diff ...

Sometimes there seems to be a conflict between economics and reality. An economic perspective might seem to imply that if the price goes high enough, we can just keep discovering oil. An interesting f ...

User westexas at TheOilDrum has been pointing out that oil producing countries are actually consuming more and more of the oil they produce. When production is flat, this increasing consumption means ...

This RAND study, "Shaping the Next One Hundred Years", is worth a look:

http://www.rand.org/pubs/monograph_reports/MR1626/

"economies of scale" depend on easy transport.

Yeah, I find it easier to think of R and P as densities, petroleum and extraction facilities per square mile, rather than as global totals. Of course ...

Would you agree the finite ending R is due to a "giving up" factor which occurs at the predator population can't sustain itself?

Yeah, I think that's just right. For example, the income from petr ...

We don't need precise numbers to know that peak oil will happen within a window between 2002 to 2020.

This is a major part of why I am interested more in dynamic models rather than curve fitting. ...

Here is an R vs P trajectory plot for a=0.00003; b=0.05; so that (b/a) = 1666. Easy to see here how a larger starting R results in a smaller ending R.

http://i140.photobucket.com/albums/r6/kukulaj/ ...