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JustinFrankl
Intermediate Crude
Intermediate Crude


Joined: Aug 22, 2005
Posts: 657

PostPosted: Tue Jul 18, 2006 7:44 am    Post subject: Re: Another record Add User to Ignore List Reply with quote

Zardoz wrote:
SoothSayer wrote:
...However a US commuter might find his commute costs GREATLY increased in a short time, blowing his financial planning out of the water...

Precisely like this poor guy:

Pinched at the pump

(Posted by Sys1 in another thread)

I could not access the article without registration being required.

Also, someone had posted in the Olduvai thread that we should probably quote a bit of an article when we link to it here, as in the future the original link may disappear but could be searched for using the quoted text.

So here:

Pinched at the Pump (LA Times, no registration)

Quote:
Stopping for gas on a recent evening commute, Joseph Godino paused to make a call before feeding his credit card into the pump's built-in reader.

He listened as a recorded voice delivered welcome news: His card still had $88 of credit available.

The gas-up was a go.


Quote:
A growing number of them are heading to pawnshops, said Mike Robinson, a co-owner of Orange Pawnshop in the city of Orange.

About 10 times a week, a customer says, "I just need money to get gas until I get my paycheck," Robinson said. "It's something that you really didn't hear about before."


Quote:
Transportation or fuel surcharges are being tacked on for deliveries of flowers, packages, employee uniforms and more. Pool cleaners are raising prices or dropping customers who live too far from their other jobs. A San Diego Merry Maids operation is rearranging customer cleanings to cut the gas bill for crew members.

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Zardoz
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Joined: Dec 02, 2005
Posts: 6755
Location: Oil-addicted Southern Californucopia

PostPosted: Tue Jul 18, 2006 8:02 am    Post subject: Re: Another record Add User to Ignore List Reply with quote

JustinFrankl wrote:
...So here:

Pinched at the Pump (LA Times, no registration)

Cool. Thanks.

Meanwhile: Good morning! Everybody up!



EDIT: Does anybody know why gasoline futures contracts are lower the farther out you go while the others are higher?
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Jester
Heavy Crude
Heavy Crude


Joined: Mar 16, 2006
Posts: 166

PostPosted: Tue Jul 18, 2006 9:07 am    Post subject: Re: Another record Add User to Ignore List Reply with quote

Zardoz wrote:
EDIT: Does anybody know why gasoline futures contracts are lower the farther out you go while the others are higher?


The trend follows the *summer driving season*, so at the start of it, prices are up because of the high demand, and at the end of it, it projects lower because of lower demand.

But a nice Hurricane or two thrown in will change all those numbers nicely, lol.
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Leanan
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Joined: May 20, 2004
Posts: 4582

PostPosted: Tue Jul 18, 2006 9:50 am    Post subject: Re: Another record Add User to Ignore List Reply with quote

This article at TOD explains a bit about backwardation and contango (that is, why some commodities are cheaper the further into the future you go, while some are more expensive).
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firestarter
Light Sweet Crude
Light Sweet Crude


Joined: Mar 19, 2006
Posts: 1181

PostPosted: Tue Jul 18, 2006 12:18 pm    Post subject: Re: Another record Add User to Ignore List Reply with quote

I see where oil is off considerably from its intraday high. I wonder if some of the insiders are on to tomorrow's inventory numbers. pup55's inventory predictions are calling for substantial builds based on last year's numbers at this time. It seems like traders are (even with Isreal/Lebanon conflict going storng) anxious to move the price downward. $71-72 by Friday's close?

p.s., gasoline has actually dropped several cents here in the suburbs of Chicago since the conflict in the ME commenced.
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willjones4
Tar Sands
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Joined: Aug 16, 2005
Posts: 84

PostPosted: Tue Jul 18, 2006 12:27 pm    Post subject: Re: Another record Add User to Ignore List Reply with quote

It jumped 10-15 cents here (Louisiana), from 2.74 to 2.86
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Armageddon
Fusion
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Joined: Apr 13, 2005
Posts: 3181
Location: St.Louis, Mo

PostPosted: Tue Jul 18, 2006 1:52 pm    Post subject: Re: Another record Add User to Ignore List Reply with quote

firestarter wrote:
I see where oil is off considerably from its intraday high. I wonder if some of the insiders are on to tomorrow's inventory numbers. pup55's inventory predictions are calling for substantial builds based on last year's numbers at this time. It seems like traders are (even with Isreal/Lebanon conflict going storng) anxious to move the price downward. $71-72 by Friday's close?

p.s., gasoline has actually dropped several cents here in the suburbs of Chicago since the conflict in the ME commenced.


Or maybe some profit taking. Not sure
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Leanan
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PostPosted: Tue Jul 18, 2006 2:06 pm    Post subject: Re: Another record Add User to Ignore List Reply with quote

I think it's events in the Middle East that are driving prices right now. Condi gave a reassuring speech today, saying she expects a cease fire soon, or some such thing, and that the price of oil go down.
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firestarter
Light Sweet Crude
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Joined: Mar 19, 2006
Posts: 1181

PostPosted: Tue Jul 18, 2006 2:24 pm    Post subject: Re: Another record Add User to Ignore List Reply with quote

The Aug contract trading at $73.80, which is less than it was trading at before last Wednesday's 6 million barrel inventory draw.

Hmmm.


Also, gold has dropped $40 bucks plus in two days, and the Dow was up 51 points in late day trading.

Double hmmm.
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Dreamtwister
Fission
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Joined: Feb 06, 2006
Posts: 2282

PostPosted: Tue Jul 18, 2006 2:30 pm    Post subject: Re: Another record Add User to Ignore List Reply with quote

firestarter wrote:
The Aug contract trading at $73.80, which is less than it was trading at before last Wednesday's 6 million barrel inventory draw.

Hmmm.


It's July 18. When does September become the front-month? Looks like September is still trading at around $77.

Seems to me the speculators would tend to back away from front-month investments towards the end of the month, since they don't actually plan on taking delivery. That would shave a couple of dollars off the price for the front month, wouldn't it?
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firestarter
Light Sweet Crude
Light Sweet Crude


Joined: Mar 19, 2006
Posts: 1181

PostPosted: Tue Jul 18, 2006 2:40 pm    Post subject: Re: Another record Add User to Ignore List Reply with quote

Dreamtwister wrote:
firestarter wrote:
The Aug contract trading at $73.80, which is less than it was trading at before last Wednesday's 6 million barrel inventory draw.

Hmmm.


It's July 18. When does September become the front-month? Looks like September is still trading at around $77.

Seems to me the speculators would tend to back away from front-month investments towards the end of the month, since they don't actually plan on taking delivery. That would shave a couple of dollars off the price for the front month, wouldn't it?




September becomes the front month on Friday. The Sept contract was as high as $78.10 earlier today, and as low as $75.15. It's now trading near $76.

Actually speculators backed away from both months in unison, for whatever reason. In the words of pup55, perhaps the "big players" are hard at work doing their "dumping thing".
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Dreamtwister
Fission
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Joined: Feb 06, 2006
Posts: 2282

PostPosted: Tue Jul 18, 2006 2:48 pm    Post subject: Re: Another record Add User to Ignore List Reply with quote

firestarter wrote:
Dreamtwister wrote:
firestarter wrote:
The Aug contract trading at $73.80, which is less than it was trading at before last Wednesday's 6 million barrel inventory draw.

Hmmm.


It's July 18. When does September become the front-month? Looks like September is still trading at around $77.

Seems to me the speculators would tend to back away from front-month investments towards the end of the month, since they don't actually plan on taking delivery. That would shave a couple of dollars off the price for the front month, wouldn't it?




September becomes the front month on Friday. The Sept contract was as high as $78.10 earlier today, and as low as $75.15. It's now trading near $76.

Actually speculators backed away from both months in unison, for whatever reason. In the words of pup55, perhaps the "big players" are hard at work doing their "dumping thing".


So then my reasoning for the August contracts isn't completely baseless then? This is good.

As for September, you're probably right. There may be some profit-taking going on there, and I'm sure Condi's speech had an impact as well.
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cheaplaughs2
Tar Sands
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Joined: Dec 13, 2005
Posts: 42

PostPosted: Tue Jul 18, 2006 4:08 pm    Post subject: Re: Another record Add User to Ignore List Reply with quote

So Condi makes the cease fire speech the market goes down.Then
Olmert makes a speech that he believes Iran is directly responsible
for the capture of the 2 soldier's and the hezbollah offensive.So
where do we go from here.

ps Did any one see T Boone Pickens on nightline last night
he came right out and said he believed in peak oil and
the fundementals are in place for$4.00 national a gallon
gas.Nothing new but nice to here while the BS flys.
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Zardoz
Expert
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Joined: Dec 02, 2005
Posts: 6755
Location: Oil-addicted Southern Californucopia

PostPosted: Tue Jul 18, 2006 4:49 pm    Post subject: Re: Another record Add User to Ignore List Reply with quote

I wouldn't last long as a commodities trader. I don't understand this crap at all:



We all seemed to agree that the old "floor" price for crude was $68. What do you think it is now? $72 maybe?
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Zardoz
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PostPosted: Wed Jul 19, 2006 7:51 am    Post subject: Re: Another record Add User to Ignore List Reply with quote

Reuters says the current "dip" is all about profit-taking:

Oil steadies, focus on Mideast, US data

This ought to reverse the trend, however:

"The market is awaiting the next set of U.S. inventory data, scheduled for release at 1430 GMT.

A Reuters survey of analysts showed that U.S. crude oil stocks were expected to have fallen by half a million barrels last week after a big decline the previous week because of high refinery utilization.

Gasoline inventories were forecast to have fallen by 700,000 barrels, pulled down by robust demand generated by the peak of the U.S. summer driving season."


We'll see...
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