I think this is the beginnings of an economy based on perpetual growth and fossil fuel energy running headlong into geological energy constraints. Basically I see an undulatory downward path for the rest of my life. From here out, I think any rallies in our economic condition are going to be met with spiking commodity prices that knock us right back down.
Posted: Wed Aug 10, 2005 3:58 am Post subject: Sugar
There was an interesting cover story in Newsweek (Aug. 8, 2005) about sugar cane ethanol from Brazil. After reading it, I am convinced that ethanol (like gas-to-liquids) is a serious contender for replacing crude oil in motor fuels.
1) Brazilian sugar cane ethanol is much cheaper than oil. From the article: "Super-efficient Brazil now sells ethanol at the equivalent of $25 dollars a barrel, less than half the cost of crude." So I think we can dispense with the incorrect notion that no other form of energy is as cheap and convenient as oil. Brazilian sugar cane ethanol is much cheaper than oil, just as convenient, and environmentally superior because it does not increase CO2 levels. ("In terms of price, the average cost of fuel ethanol production in the country (Brazil) is around 50 cents per gallon" Source)
2) Serious money is being invested: "To keep up with demand, local sugar barons and giant multinationals will invest some $6 billion in new plantations and distilleries over the next five years." This is on a par with Shell's $6 billion GTL facility in Qatar.
3) Ethanol production is booming. The growth rate is about 9% per year:
4) World production of ethanol in 2004 was 10.77 billion gallons (=40.8 billion liters). On the average there are 19.5 gallons of gasoline in a barrel of crude oil (Source), so ethanol is providing the equivalent of 1.5 million barrels/day of crude oil. For comparison, Iraq produced 2mbd in 2004. Ethanol is as big a factor in the world oil market as Iraq.
5) There's weird goings-on in the global sugar market:
Quote:
9 August, 2005
Sugar prices 'to rise'
LONDON: Sugar prices, the highest for nearly five years, are entering unchartered territory as investment funds show a record interest in the commodity which traders see as increasingly tied to energy markets.
6) This is my favorite part: "A global biofuel economy, with a division of labor favoring the most efficient producers, is key to developing biofuels as a viable alternative to oil. For many developing countries, year-round growing seasons and cheap farm labor are a valuable competitive advantage over cold, high-cost northern countries. Super-efficient Brazil now sells ethanol at the equivalent of $25 a barrel, less than half the cost of crude."
The beauty of this plan is that it transfers money to hot developing nations, who can use the money to develop, and pass through the demographic transition. It's a good way to crack first world agricultural subsidies and tariffs which keep the third world poor.
7) Interesting fact: The EIA classifies ethanol as "oil".
"Total oil production (including crude, natural gas liquids, ethanol and refinery gain) has been rising steadily since the early 1990s..."(Source)
It's a good way to crack first world agricultural subsidies and tariffs which keep the third world poor.
I have a better idea. Let's set up treaties so first-world nations can buy up the productive land at bargain prices, then hire the third world poor at minimal wages to produce cheap fuel for the first world.
Even better: force the third world nations to sell their land to the IMF in exchange for debt relief, then force them to gut their social safety net so that wages will go down even more!
Multinationals investing billions of dollars in brazil to grow suger cane. You do realise their farming practices there don't you?. They burn down the forests and use that land to grow biofuel and after afew growing seasons they have to burn down more because the soil is depleated away so they then move on to burn down more rainforests to replant. Doesn't sound very sustainable to me.
Joined: May 24, 2004 Posts: 3429 Location: California, USA
Posted: Wed Aug 10, 2005 8:21 am Post subject:
Right; there's a sustainable way and an unsustainable way to get there from here.
If I recall correctly, rainforest topsoil cover is notoriously thin. This makes it an inefficient growing medium for (whatever). Therefore, soil that is properly maintained (with manures and so on) will if anything be a more efficient growing medium.
Lets encourage more slashing and burning of the amazon river basin so we can have cheap
ethanol for our vehicles. Doesn't sound very sustainable. Cleared rainforest land generally
is not productive for more than a few years... beyond that it needs massive inputs
of fertilizers.
Besides, this would drive up the cost of sugar. How will I be able to afford the seven lumps
for my tea the way things are going?
Posted: Wed Aug 10, 2005 11:43 pm Post subject: Re: Sugar
I don't know why greenies have such a fixation for ethanol and biodiesel. It's actually worse for the environment then drilling for oil....IMHO. *seriously*
A lot of people don't know this but the number one most environmentally destructive activity humans engage in is agriculture. To engage in agriculture is to declare war on the environment. First you must clear a very large patch of land. Plow the field (which in the long run will destroy the topsoil). Irrigate the field. (might have to build a dam to get that much water). Spray the whole place down with fertilizers, pesticides, and whatever.
BTW I'm not trying to demonize agriculture or farmers, I'm just stating the facts. Besides I gotta eat whenever I get hungry. Anyhow, I find it rather strange that half the time the ideas that environmentalists support actually do more harm for the environment then good.
Joined: Sep 06, 2004 Posts: 5315 Location: Smalltown New Zealand
Posted: Wed Aug 10, 2005 11:51 pm Post subject: Re: Sugar
As Monbiot points out once you go down the biomass route and it's more economical to divert land to biomass rather than food you run into a few problems.
Posted: Thu Aug 11, 2005 11:00 am Post subject: Re: Sugar
I just don't see why we can't have both food and biomass... cellulose to ethanol works great with cereal grain straw and other such agricultural "waste".
Posted: Thu Aug 11, 2005 11:08 am Post subject: Re: Sugar
Caoimhan wrote:
I just don't see why we can't have both food and biomass... cellulose to ethanol works great with cereal grain straw and other such agricultural "waste".
It is not waste ... this is propaganda. One needs to leave "agricultural" waste back to be recycled otherwise soil gets destroyed/depleted. Come on guys/gals this is high school science. If one wants biofuels, then land has to be specifically dedicated for it.
Excellent paper by Lal from Ohio State University here
Quote:
Environ Int. 2005 May;31(4):575-84.
World crop residues production and implications of its use as a biofuel.
Lal R.
Carbon Management and Sequestration Center, The Ohio State University, Columbus,
OH 43210, United States. lal.1@osu.edu
Reducing and off-setting anthropogenic emissions of CO(2) and other greenhouse
gases (GHGs) are important strategies of mitigating the greenhouse effect. Thus,
the need for developing carbon (C) neutral and renewable sources of energy is
more than ever before. Use of crop residue as a possible source of feedstock for
bioenergy production must be critically and objectively assessed because of its
positive impact on soil C sequestration, soil quality maintenance and ecosystem
functions. The amount of crop residue produced in the US is estimated at
367x10(6) Mg/year for 9 cereal crops, 450x10(6) Mg/year for 14 cereals and
legumes, and 488x10(6) Mg/year for 21 crops. The amount of crop residue produced
in the world is estimated at 2802x10(6) Mg/year for cereal crops, 3107x10(6)
Mg/year for 17 cereals and legumes, and 3758x10(6) Mg/year for 27 food crops.
The fuel value of the total annual residue produced is estimated at 1.5x10(15)
kcal, about 1 billion barrels (bbl) of diesel equivalent, or about 8 quads for
the US; and 11.3x10(15) kcal, about 7.5 billion bbl of diesel or 60 quads for
the world. However, even a partial removal (30-40%) of crop residue from land
can exacerbate soil erosion hazard, deplete the SOC pool, accentuate emission of
CO(2) and other GHGs from soil to the atmosphere, and exacerbate the risks of
global climate change. Therefore, establishing bioenergy plantations of
site-specific species with potential of producing 10-15 Mg biomass/year is an
option that needs to be considered. This option will require 40-60 million
hectares of land in the US and about 250 million hectares worldwide to establish
bioenergy plantations.
PMID: 15788197 [PubMed - indexed for MEDLINE]
How many times do I have to repost this? _________________ "Nuclear power has long been to the Left what embryonic-stem-cell research is to the Right--irredeemably wrong and a signifier of moral weakness."Esquire Magazine,12/05
The genetic code is commaless and so are my posts.
Posted: Thu Aug 11, 2005 12:34 pm Post subject: Re: Sugar
Only if high-intensity "conventional" petroleum-based methods of farming are used. Tilling straw back into the soil helps to mitigate the damage already being done by such farming methods.
I'm having trouble locating the article now, but a report was just published from an 8+ year study on organic vs. conventional farming methods. Organic methods (using natural fertilizers) produce less initially (in the first few years), but eventually end up producing comparable yields to conventional farming. Plus, organic farming does this while improving the soil quality. It could be argued that the improved yields are as a direct result of the improved soil quality.
Posted: Thu Aug 11, 2005 12:41 pm Post subject: Re: Sugar
Caoimhan wrote:
Only if high-intensity "conventional" petroleum-based methods of farming are used. Tilling straw back into the soil helps to mitigate the damage already being done by such farming methods.
I'm having trouble locating the article now, but a report was just published from an 8+ year study on organic vs. conventional farming methods. Organic methods (using natural fertilizers) produce less initially (in the first few years), but eventually end up producing comparable yields to conventional farming. Plus, organic farming does this while improving the soil quality. It could be argued that the improved yields are as a direct result of the improved soil quality.
Correct but "organic farminng" recycles the waste ... so if one wanted to do organic biofuel agriculture one would have to set aside land ... not take the "waste" out fo the land. I have the article ... it is from the Rodale institute ... same results have been obtained in studies outside the US. The only confounding factor is that the nitrogen available in the soil has gone up x 40 in the last 50 years (not just due to fertilizers but due to the ICE spitting NOx in the atmosphere), so what these studies essentially prove is that sticking more fertilizer in the soil is a waste. However there are counter-data (check http://peakoil.com/post152390.html#152390) that even totally depleted soil can be restored and than cutting fertilizer input by 25-30% will not decrease the yields. Modern "organic" farming has few similarities to farming from 2 centuries ago; certain practises were retained ... others were not _________________ "Nuclear power has long been to the Left what embryonic-stem-cell research is to the Right--irredeemably wrong and a signifier of moral weakness."Esquire Magazine,12/05
The genetic code is commaless and so are my posts.
Posted: Thu Aug 11, 2005 3:41 pm Post subject: Re: Sugar
We ought to be requiring all organic household waste go to composting sites. And TDP facilities would become spurious if we composted that organic waste, too, and returned it to the soil.
Posted: Thu Aug 11, 2005 5:18 pm Post subject: Re: Sugar
cube wrote:
I don't know why greenies have such a fixation for ethanol and biodiesel. It's actually worse for the environment then drilling for oil....IMHO. *seriously*
Its because most greenies have an aversion to independent thinking.
Posted: Sun Aug 14, 2005 10:02 pm Post subject: Re: Sugar
agni wrote:
cube wrote:
I don't know why greenies have such a fixation for ethanol and biodiesel. It's actually worse for the environment then drilling for oil....IMHO. *seriously*
Its because most greenies have an aversion to independent thinking.
-A
I don't know about that. Rampant ignorance seems to be the main problem, no matter what your belief system.
Posted: Thu Aug 18, 2005 5:36 pm Post subject: Re: Sugar
You know that seaweed from Africa thats a ecological hazard, because it grows ultra fast?
Why don't we just acclimate that to the salt levels in the ocean, start growing that in the ocean, and collect it, and through bacteria digestion, convert it to sugar- then ethanol.
It all boils down to solar energy when you think about it, this would grow at a phemnomenal rate, and we would have to collect it and capture it to keep it from taking over spawning in the ocean.
Or, heres an even better idea, genetically modify it so it produces flammable grease. The genes for this already exist in a shrub which is a common cause of forest fires. This grease is extremely flammable and could be used as a fuel.
The plant wouldn't evolve to get rid of the grease, because the grease would act as a deterrant for things trying to eat the plant, so the plant would evolve to produce large amounts of the grease to keep animals at bay.
We would then just collect the plant, refine it, and burn it for fuel.
Farming the ocean, we're already depleting it of fish, so why not compete for sunlight?
If your worried about algae production, the way to counter that is to dump large quantities of iron in the ocean. Iron acts like a fertilizer to algae, and is one of the limiting factors in algae production. According to one study, they poured a very, very minute amount of iron over an area of water, and it doubled the algae production. This is also a concern with heavy metal waste runoff(which probably contains small amounts of iron) into the oceans and ponds, as it causes algae bloom, you can look that up too.
So the algae production can be saved, and at the same time we can farm the ocean to produce cheap gasoline, without depleting the soil. And after we refine the grease and ethanol out, we could time the compounds that were left, and dump them back into the ocean, preventing depletion(it would be in our best interest, because if we didn't remove them, the salt would rust out the car engines when they used the fuel).
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