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Hoarding is exactly what the government is doing right now by filling the SPR, and frankly it's the best thing that could happen. It drives prices up. High prices encourage demand destruction. They also finance new well development. The hoarded oil gives us a buffer to fall back on once shortages become more prevalent. High prices are what we need in order to adapt to what's coming, and the sooner they happen, the better.

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AHHHHHHHHHHHHH!!!
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mgibbons19
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Joined: Aug 20, 2004
Posts: 1035

PostPosted: Sat Aug 13, 2005 3:13 pm    Post subject: Re: AHHHHHHHHHHHHH!!! Add User to Ignore List Reply with quote

Hey kid, don't sweat it.

But, do read a lot. And the advice about being in shape is excellent. Remember to lift and aerobics both.

Me being me, I'd suggest getting a bike and start riding to the places you have to go. It's great freedom at your age because you don't have to wait for your folks to drive you around. You'll also learn bike maintenance. That will help in the long run. And don't get a credit card.

You will be young, in shape, without debt, and will have learnt lots from your books. You will be better off than most.

And if none of it comes true, you'll still be better off than most.
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backstop
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PostPosted: Sat Aug 13, 2005 4:18 pm    Post subject: Re: AHHHHHHHHHHHHH!!! Add User to Ignore List Reply with quote

JudoCow -

I well remember being told I was lucky when I was your age - and considering the Godawful mess my parents' generation had left us: I just couldn't see it either.

Yes - my generation rebelled and had some great times, and millions of us around the world headed out and settled down to a rural way of life - But try as we might we've never got near turning this society around, and now its coming to its long predicted energy crunch.

You asked what you can do - so here's my two-pennorth.

First, you can learn really useful skills. You're already learning to play an instrument and that's pretty rare for young people to take seriously these days. So, unless marching band is un-let-go-able, chuck it in favour of putting that 3 hrs a day into practicing your music and listening to lots of sorts of (accoustic) music.

The reasons I'd suggest this are:

a/. There's likely going to be a call for musicians able to play live without all sorts of electronic kit, and good ones will be pretty sure of getting by quite well however far this society slumps.

b/. At your age my younger boy Joe used to go busking with a freind in London with violin and guitar, playing Irish tunes outside Irish pubs. They regularly used to get over £10/hr each at it (about $17/hr) and this was 10 years ago. I gather you could do with some income, and getting experience of playing live to audiences is a major part of becoming a musician, so learning music you could busk with could be really useful now.

The second thing you can do is to have faith in people of your own age. Between 14 & 21 people are at their most original, innovative and, I'd say, courageous. So find other young people who see the need to prepare and work with them both locally and on the web. God knows the brighter sparks of other generations will do whatever they can to help, but I think it will be your generation that actually finds new ways forward to a different way of life.

So keep your chin up - things will pan out if you work at it. It just ain't going to be like life in the adverts ! (Has it ever been ?)

all the best,

Backstop
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gt1370a
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PostPosted: Sat Aug 13, 2005 4:24 pm    Post subject: Re: AHHHHHHHHHHHHH!!! Add User to Ignore List Reply with quote

One huge thing you have going for you is that you have no debt (I assume it isn't possible for a 14 year old to get debt). Don't make the mistake of getting into debt, with the possible exception of limited student loans for in-state tuition, if needed, if that's still an option in 3-4 years. If you get a credit card, pay off the balance every month.

I think the band is probably a waste of time. Join a sports team instead and get in good physical shape. Maybe something like track or soccer or tennis where the risk of injury is lower, whatever is suited to your interests and abilities. Do some weightlifting too. If you can't make a team, do it on your own time.

One thing you probably don't realize is that you have more free time now than you ever will. Take advantage of that. Stop doing low-value tasks (like band) and put your time towards educating yourself and improving your physical condition.

You may have some opportunities in the future, though they probably aren't what you've been expecting. Maybe in 4 years instead of going to Harvard to study business, the top students will study agriculture at University of Georgia. Who knows? Just keep your eyes open for opportunities and take them. You have a big advantage over your classmates because you are aware of how the world is changing.
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JudoCow09
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PostPosted: Sat Aug 13, 2005 4:45 pm    Post subject: Re: AHHHHHHHHHHHHH!!! Add User to Ignore List Reply with quote

I can't get out of band now, nor will I since it is one of my favorite things I still do. By the way, I play the Trombone. I still play Soccer in the spring in the Rec league since I'm not good enough to be on a select or highschool team. Besides, in Marching Band I lost 7 pounds during Band Camp last week and it is a fairly phsically demanding not to mention hard working sport persay that teaches you morals which will be needed in any world in my mind and requires you to indure heat all day.

I don't know yet what my highschool has to offer, but I'll be sure to try to focus on some of that stuff.

By the way, when do you guys think we will really start to notice the effects of PO, or rather when will the life we lead now change?
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killJOY
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PostPosted: Sat Aug 13, 2005 5:01 pm    Post subject: Re: AHHHHHHHHHHHHH!!! Add User to Ignore List Reply with quote

People who play acoustic instruments could be in high demand. People will WANT, DEMAND entertainment during the crisis.

I've got my fiddles.
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MonteQuest
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PostPosted: Sat Aug 13, 2005 5:05 pm    Post subject: Re: AHHHHHHHHHHHHH!!! Add User to Ignore List Reply with quote

JudoCow09 wrote:
By the way, when do you guys think we will really start to notice the effects of PO, or rather when will the life we lead now change?


Judo,

There are two things no one can be certain about right now.

1. How much oil is there left that we can actually recover.

2. What the rate of oil production decline will be.

The rate and magnitude will determine how bad it gets and how soon.

Not to be cryptic, but the effects started, and the life you lead now changed the day you became peak oil aware and googled this site.

Welcome to the forum! Very Happy
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whiteknight
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Joined: Aug 09, 2005
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PostPosted: Sat Aug 13, 2005 5:17 pm    Post subject: Re: AHHHHHHHHHHHHH!!! Add User to Ignore List Reply with quote

killJOY wrote:
I've got my fiddles.


Why is there a scene from "Deliverance" palying in my mind about now...

"Can you squeel city boy..."
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Waterthrush
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PostPosted: Sat Aug 13, 2005 5:19 pm    Post subject: Re: AHHHHHHHHHHHHH!!! Add User to Ignore List Reply with quote

From a historian's perspective, I'd suggest reading a lot of history. It really helps to put one's individual experience into the broader context of human life. Imagine yourself in a Roman provincial town. There have been rumors of Vandals. But, essentially, your circle of knowledge is about 3 miles. "I lift mine eyes to the hills ... whence is that coming over them?"

Listen, long secular hikes of inflation, changes in technology ... this is pretty much the norm for our species.

But, the nuclear weapons frighten me. Other things too.

However, this is a planet worth fighting for. I am not going to acquiesce in its destruction.
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spudbuddy
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PostPosted: Sat Aug 13, 2005 5:34 pm    Post subject: Re: AHHHHHHHHHHHHH!!! Add User to Ignore List Reply with quote

Moo!
Hey now cow,

It's a long emergency. No-one yet knows how long it will take for all this stuff to come to pass...could be quite awhile.
You're ahead of the game somewhat for even being aware of this problem, at your age.
(at your age I was sitting around on the lawn in front of my high school discussing alternatives to not buying into the American dream...[I had a different sort of dream.])
Don't allow yourself to become overwhelmed by what isn't possible;
consider instead what may be possible.
Allow yourself to imagine that this picture might include some good things.
You will not come of age and enter adulthood mindlessly accepting and having bought into the crap that got us into this mess in the first place.
And that's a damned good thing!
As previously remarked on - it's a positive thing that you're even here bothering to read and write and comment at all.
Many, if not most, in your age group are still bouncing around the postmodern cool chat sites. (or too busy looking into their left hands)
say what?
um -that would be a cell phone.
A suggestion:
Find, if you can (a teacher, minister, family member) someone somewhat older than you, trusted, trustworthy...that you can talk to in real time and real space, three-dimensional.
They'll have insights, perspective, knowledge, ideas....that will help, no doubt.
As a student, you will inherit a different world than the one you see now.
Apply yourself (with a mindset) towards a fuller education about the nature of the world you're growing up in.
One day you will be the cutting edge of a new social and economic order.
Whether that will be something that resembles the Great Depression remains to be seen.
Much of the world is, no doubt, sleepwalking into the future (seemingly unaware of what's coming).
You aren't. That gives you an advantage. Try thinking of it in exactly that way...an advantage.
Taken in its entirety...the world situation would probably overwhelm the most brilliant thinkers of our time.
So don't do it.
Reduce it down to bite-size bits...bran flakes of issues (more easily digestible...healthier for the plumbing.)
Another thing: Don't waste a whole lot of effort, energy and especially emotion, trying to debate or convince non-believers...there's no percentage in that.
Instead look for the ones who are already there. If this stuff overwhelms you, you're going to need support. (like in this site, for instance.)
But again...I repeat and stress...do your best to find that resource outside of cyberspace.

good luck!

jp
just let me laugh when it's funny
and when it's sad, let me cry
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americandream
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PostPosted: Sat Aug 13, 2005 6:20 pm    Post subject: Re: AHHHHHHHHHHHHH!!! Add User to Ignore List Reply with quote

Goin back over the points judo raised, what options do we have to pull this back.....go on tell me. I can't see any way out other than marxist style central planning and yet this system has had such bad press and the renegade Chinese communists make you wonder, I don't reckon its a starter. So, can any one tell me in a nutshell, how are we going to arrest resource waste, maintain some semblance of civil society and get post peak...with a system that can relativley smoothly transition us in an ordered fashion with some clear goals laid out...and carry the likes of the Islamic world along as well? It does not look good.
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Tyler_JC
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PostPosted: Sat Aug 13, 2005 6:30 pm    Post subject: Re: AHHHHHHHHHHHHH!!! Add User to Ignore List Reply with quote

americandream wrote:
Goin back over the points judo raised, what options do we have to pull this back.....go on tell me. I can't see any way out other than marxist style central planning and yet this system has had such bad press and the renegade Chinese communists make you wonder, I don't reckon its a starter. So, can any one tell me in a nutshell, how are we going to arrest resource waste, maintain some semblance of civil society and get post peak...with a system that can relativley smoothly transition us in an ordered fashion with some clear goals laid out...and carry the likes of the Islamic world along as well? It does not look good.


Easy

Chaos, millions die, governments fall apart, the electrical grid goes down...forever, and industrial civilizations ends by default.

Then the we can come out of the shadows to rebuild the world according to the official language of our local Peak Oil Messiah.

Or something like that.

There is no such thing as a global solution. However, there are plenty of local solutions. I suggest finding a nice neighborhood of like-minded people, then get yourself into a position of power. That way you can "fix" peak oil for the town of X and can care less about the rest of the world.

I dunno, my personal doomerosity is tipping back towards 2. (or whatever a moderate optimist is called)
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something_awfull
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PostPosted: Sat Aug 13, 2005 6:39 pm    Post subject: Re: AHHHHHHHHHHHHH!!! Add User to Ignore List Reply with quote

MattSavinar wrote:


JudoCow09,

I don't know how much consolation this will be, but most of us are in circumstances not altogether different from yours.

There are people such as myself who have a decent income, but funnel all their money towards debt repayment, which leaves not too much left for peak oil preparation.

There are people such as Aaron, who have young children for which they are responsible. (Imagine the stress)


Matt


I don't need to imagine the stress, I have 3 small children, 6,3 (years) and 4 months, as well as a sizable debt. So I don't have much to put toward POP, I want to, but if I spend money and I'm wrong or I don't spend money and I'm wrong, well, Im sorta stuffed either way. Sad

I worry about what they will have to face, I only hope Im around long enough to be able to help them as much as I can.
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Pops
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PostPosted: Sat Aug 13, 2005 6:46 pm    Post subject: Re: AHHHHHHHHHHHHH!!! Add User to Ignore List Reply with quote

Great post Mr. Savinar.

In fact great posts everyone! This is what this site is about!

Judo, turn off the stinking computer and have some fun for cripes sake, it’s the middle of August and you are perhaps in the most carefree time of your life.

Granted your family has problems – it may be a surprise to you but everybody has problems, most put on a happy face and we think everyone else is doing great except us; not true.

I was talking with some relatives the other day and we were discussing our family history. We didn’t know diddly. I had sat and talked with my grandmother for hours when I was younger and had written her recollections on some green paper, which has been long since lost.

I look for that green paper in every box I come accross.

Talk to your folks about your family, you may come to know each other better and you will certainly grow closer.

Now, Turn off that computer!!!
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Aaron
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PostPosted: Sat Aug 13, 2005 6:47 pm    Post subject: Re: AHHHHHHHHHHHHH!!! Add User to Ignore List Reply with quote

Quote:
By the way, I do actually play Judo although I'm only an orange belt.


Although it has been many years, I got my black belt in Judo at 17. (Brown in Aikido as well) Was great fun. Worst ass kicking I ever had came at the hands of a 5 foot tall, 90 lb,45 year old woman.

I also marched in band in school. Flute.

I still play today, and it's been well worth the time I spent to learn it.
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GoIllini
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PostPosted: Sat Aug 13, 2005 7:52 pm    Post subject: Re: AHHHHHHHHHHHHH!!! Add User to Ignore List Reply with quote

I can only imagine what must be going through a 14 year old's mind at the thought the world might end. The closest I can come is remembering what it was like for me when I heard about a weather balloon launched from some scandinavian country that drifted into Russian airspace and came within minutes of starting a nuclear war.

Let me try and reassure you that if you're living in some small town in Ohio- or maybe even in a big city- you're starting off in great shape to get through PO and help switch us to a nuclear or renewable-based economy.

First off, you're living in the Midwest. Even with some of the most doomsdayish scenarios (which I don't ascribe to), the Midwest will always wind up being able to grow enough food to feed itself. When oil-based agriculture comes to an end, there's a good chance that we won't even be able to have the energy to cart food out of Ohio.

The fact that Ohio grows so much food- and that there aren't a whole lot of people there- means that all those further-out claims about nuclear war and martial law probably won't hit home- especially if you live in a small town or live out in the country. Ohio also might not be that much of a tactical target for anyone looking to launch missiles at us.

A lot of the scariest claims for PO should be more frightening to folks living on the East or West coast- where there's no way for people to get enough food to eat.

Here's a couple of things an intelligent 14 year old can do:

1. Keep doing well in school and stay in marching band. To be honest, there's so much more that you can learn there that's going to help you help us rebuild after Peak Oil hits. If they offer an Agriculture class at school, you might want to think about taking it. (If peak oil doesn't hit, it'll be pretty interesting to learn about how various foods wind up on your dinner plate. If it does hit, you'll be able to help people do a better job of growing food.)

2. If you don't have a busy summer, get a summer job. You're 14 years old; a lot of people will hire you. You can save up some of the money you make, or if you're feeling confident enough to put money in the stock market, put some of the money you make in oil stocks like Chevron (See http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=cvx) or British Petroleum (See http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=BP)

3. Start reading up on how ethanol and bio-diesel get made, and how we get electricity from various sources of renewable energy (IE: wind and solar).

4. If you think you might go to college, try to plan on a school in the Midwest. (There are so many good schools in Ohio.)
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