I think this is the beginnings of an economy based on perpetual growth and fossil fuel energy running headlong into geological energy constraints. Basically I see an undulatory downward path for the rest of my life. From here out, I think any rallies in our economic condition are going to be met with spiking commodity prices that knock us right back down.
Joined: Sep 28, 2004 Posts: 216 Location: Hillsboro, West Virginia
Posted: Wed Oct 13, 2004 7:55 pm Post subject:
OilsNotWell wrote:
Wrong. Now. Peak really won't matter now, since demand is currently outstripping supply, and any future production will be relatively neglible and won't be able to bridge the gap. It will become ever more apparent.
That may be so, but there will be relatively sharp falls over relatively steep parts of the downslope. The final blackout, for example, as the power grids fail never to come up again. At some point, the masses of people will become generally aware that there isn't going to be enough food to feed everybody, and then the panic will leap in magnitude, not merely gradually rise. And, of course, there will be that first winter just prior to which those living in northern latitudes, say around Halloween, finally understand at the bottom of their very being, that they ain't getting no fuel oil, coal, propane, LP, or kerosene this year, or ever again. EeeeeeK! "Children died, days grew cold, a crust of bread would buy a bag of gold. I wish we'd all been ready. There's no time to spend your dime, the power's off and you've been left behiiiind."
Anybody want to guess which year the president will make himself a dictator by activating those executive orders that say he can grab everything you have, split up your family, and send you off to a labor camp as a slave? It may be that the survivors will be those who successfully break anti-hoarding laws, concealing their stash of food and petrol, and even themselves and their homes, from the scrutiny of overflying government planes and reconaissance satellites. Mind your thermal emissions; a lot of those recon satellites are sensitive to infrared.
Joined: Oct 24, 2004 Posts: 1 Location: Europe Germany
Posted: Sun Oct 24, 2004 11:53 am Post subject: Some positve outlooks !
" .....there isn't going to be enough food to feed everybody, and then the panic will leap in magnitude, not merely gradually rise."
At the moment i see many overweight americans - so a little diet would do no harm
One could also see it the other way round .
People learn to live with lightweight HPVs insulate themselves and dont eat
meat in such unhealthy quantities like before . Living becomes more intelligent and natureconform and the change into that livingstyle creates new domestic jobs .
And suddenly the energy for that way of living is enough ( as it has been for our ancestors we are now a little bit more similar ) and comes most of our own country itself and ( as you can often see in the faces of "underdeveloped" countries ) all are smiling even though we are more "poor" than before in the old sense of the developed countries .
Oil peak could be 2006, 07, 08... any of those years. We'll probably see a subsitution to natural gas for vehicles some time soon. There's a lot of room for substitution at this point so we'll see increasing energy awareness among the public. It could be quite some time before we see the economy collapse. When gas hits $5 or $6 in the US, we'll probably see people start to substitute public transportation for car transportation, and maybe we'll see less commuting.
There are electric-assisted bicycles out there as well as biodiesel, ethanol, etc. I know, I know... these things aren't complete solutions to the problem, but they should ameliorate the crash for some time. We'll see all kinds of things come and go.
Coal fired electric plants are being constructed as we speak. Yes, it's an environmental nightmare. Yes, it's dirty, and we shouldn't do it. But we will.
Electric cars will probably become more common as they come back online. Hybrids getting 60-80mpg should help a little.
Part of the problem is that China and India are just STARTING to ramp up. They have ten times the population of the US and they want their piece of the pie. I think they've already picked up a head of steam on this and it'll become increasingly difficult to maintain anything as they add a couple million cars a year to the world vehicle population.
It's hard to say. Peak oil in 07, subsitution beginning in 06/07, hard economic times in 08-10, and economic depression starting somewhere between 10 and 20.
Joined: Aug 10, 2004 Posts: 1104 Location: San Diego, CA, USA
Posted: Mon Nov 08, 2004 11:53 am Post subject:
So with all the guesses proposed so far on this thread, let's face it.
1. Nobody knows exactly when oil will peak. Today? Twenty years? BP comes out to say that non-OPEC production will peak within the NEXT decade.
2. Nobody knows exactly how peak oil will play out. There are people who WANT it to play out a certain way. Racists want it to play out through genocide or separation. American Nationalists want it to play out through American Hegemony. Earth-First types want it to play out with everyone returning to the garden of eden. Anarchists want it to become their favorite mad max movie.
Fact is: We don't know. How many years will people continue to speculate on this board about how peak oil will play out? Suppose we've got ten years. Will the same people be posting, day-in, day-out, with the same speculation. "Maybe 2012?" "No. I think 2013."
Just some food for thought. With a little more fuel efficiency, a little more turning the thermostat down, and a little more production out of Saudi Arabia and stability in Iraq and Venezuela and Iran, we could be looking at five years of $40-$75 oil.
Posted: Mon Nov 08, 2004 8:37 pm Post subject: Honestly?
It is currently my opinion that by mid-year of 2005 we should be at the "peak". Of course if I learn anything that changes my opinion I'll be sure to mention it.
1. Nobody knows exactly when oil will peak. Today? Twenty years? BP comes out to say that non-OPEC production will peak within the NEXT decade.
The non-OPEC conventional production already appears to be in decline since the beginning of this year. Campbell seems to acknowledge that since he has kept the conventional peak at 2005.
The real question is OPEC. Mexico has peaked last year. China and Russia will peak before 2007 (if we believe the officials).
After 2007, OPEC production growth needs to offset the decline of the rest of the world AND deliver the production growth. That means that they have to grow faster than any point in history. 2 OPEC members are already in decline and unable to meet their production quota (Venezuela and Indonesia).
After 2007 the remaining OPEC countries need to add 3-5 mbd per year to keep on growing, more than at any point in their history. I don't see them doing that. Perhaps the production will plateau for a few years, but in 2007 it will basically be a run race.
Joined: Oct 12, 2004 Posts: 1647 Location: Davis, California
Posted: Thu Nov 11, 2004 5:29 pm Post subject:
I'm thinking 2004 or 5 if a miracle occurs in Iran/Saudi Arabia that allows them to ratchet up production by a few mbd. Otherwise, decline is going significantly play a larger role than straight production.
Dick Cheney has said that by 2010 we will need an additional 50 million barrels per day due to demand and depletion. Matthew Simmons has said this as well.
Joined: Nov 11, 2004 Posts: 16 Location: Oahu, Hawaii
Posted: Thu Nov 11, 2004 9:18 pm Post subject: Your best guess, when will it hit?
I'll go for 2005.
I'm not sure that the time of the actual peak of production will mean that much. The actual shape of the curve is influenced by a number of factors. The pronounced Russian double peak was caused by infrastructure collapse when the Soviet Union came unglued.
The Middle East production could be severely impacted by a focusing of terrorist activity on pipelines, refineries, tanker-handling, and storage facilities. Over the longer term, this would be reflected as a plateau or mild (maybe) double peak.
All times are GMT - 6 Hours Goto page Previous1, 2, 3
Page 3 of 3
You cannot post new topics in this forum You cannot reply to topics in this forum You cannot edit your posts in this forum You cannot delete your posts in this forum You cannot vote in polls in this forum
News
Discussions
Resources
Members
Forum FAQ
Search
Usergroups
Profile
Log in to check your private messages
Log in
"Children died, days grew cold, a crust of bread would buy a bag of gold. I wish we'd all been ready. There's no time to spend your dime, the power's off and you've been left behiiiind." 
