Posted: Wed Aug 24, 2005 6:07 am Post subject: Re: US recession affecting oil price ??
oilluber wrote:
...
So !!, to make this thesis make money, buy oil stocks now,
unload at above 80 bucks, wait for recession,
buy back oil stocks at 35 barrel level.
Finally, I have an answer to a complicated question.
I'm no expert, but my bets are not on oil. I have a small investment in energy, which I'm planning to sell soon. I expected they would go up a bit longer, but I'm not sure anymore. My main investment is aiming at a market crash. I'm not gutsy enough to short the market, but instead I have bought put options. Over here the market seems to be going down already and faster then I expected, also dragging down the energy/oil stocks a bit. The idea was to sell the energy funds/options on a high and invest the money from that also in put options. I'm still in doubt now if I'm gonna wait for another spike up one more time, or switch them now because I'm not sure we're gonna see another upward spike anymore.
The report showed a wide-spread weakness in orders. Machinery orders were down 6.2 percent, while fabricated metal product orders dropped 4.4 percent.
Technology orders fell 5.9 percent, with computer and related products falling 8.3 percent as communication orders fell 7.1 percent.
Non-defense aircraft orders plunged 20.2 percent, but even excluding orders from the often volatile transportation sector, orders fell 3.2 percent. Reuters had forecast that excluding transportation orders would be off only 0.6 percent.
NEW YORK (Reuters) - Applications for U.S. home mortgages decreased last week, with purchasing activity falling for the first time in a month despite slightly lower interest rates, an industry group said Wednesday.
Is that the sound of an economy grinding to a halt? Maybe it is starting already? _________________ The Future of Money
Posted: Thu Aug 25, 2005 1:00 am Post subject: Re: US recession affecting oil price ??
CARVER wrote:
Is that the sound of an economy grinding to a halt? Maybe it is starting already?
I think so.
Beware of oil. If the markets begin to turn, hedge funds will get slaughtered and they control 60% of the oil futures market with assets near one trillion US $$.
S&P broke a H&S neckline today and failed a test of that neckline. DJIA made a solid break below its 200 day moving average.
I have a feeling we are going to see a mini crash before or just after Lbor day. Everything seems to be lining up for it. Markets topped in January, fell, and rose again until around Aug 2. Fed is having meetings with banks about derivatives. Cyclicals are pointing down for most of September. Getting a small but steady tickle of leading indicators turning down since July - retail first, now durables, i'd guess commodities next.
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