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Peakoil.com :: View topic - Panic in the air?
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Panic in the air?

 
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MrBean
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Joined: Sep 26, 2004
Posts: 1048

PostPosted: Wed Aug 24, 2005 5:09 pm    Post subject: Panic in the air? Add User to Ignore List Reply with quote

Fed has called the major players in derivative trading to a meeting, causing mild panic on Wall Street:

Quote:
Industry executives are troubled that the high volume of trading has resulted in a backlog of unconfirmed trades, according to a Bloomberg report Wednesday. The news agency cited a report from the Counterparty Risk Management Policy Group, which recommended banks consider reduce trading until they can confirm existing trades.

A spokesman for the New York arm of the Federal Reserve said the bank "invited key participants in the credit market to meet here on Thursday Sept. 15, to talk about market practices, particularly with respect to assignments and confirmations (back office processing), that would benefit from discussion between regulators and participants."


Linky

Mogambo Guru tells that Fed "actually started down the path of the ultimate fraud, and bought up $1.6 billion of government debt!"

And of course, U.S. July Durables Orders fell 4.9%. On top of these news, crude and NG reached new records, and gasoline inventories continued their decline, now 7% below last year.


Today the actual turning point, or just another "soft spot"? How fast can the derivative house of cards fall, when it starts falling?
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meekoil
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PostPosted: Wed Aug 24, 2005 5:25 pm    Post subject: Re: Panic in the air? Add User to Ignore List Reply with quote

I highly recommend reading The Mogambo every week for the real truth about the US economy. And he's funny too.
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I_Like_Plants
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PostPosted: Wed Aug 24, 2005 6:21 pm    Post subject: Re: Panic in the air? Add User to Ignore List Reply with quote

Mogambo's funny as hell, and educational too!
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ab0di
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PostPosted: Wed Aug 24, 2005 6:26 pm    Post subject: Re: Panic in the air? Add User to Ignore List Reply with quote

meekoil wrote:
I highly recommend reading The Mogambo every week for the real truth about the US economy. And he's funny too.


He is funny, but I distrust anyone associated with Christian Reconstructionist Gary North to speak the truth. I find the gold bugs and "libertarian" economists a bit too bizarre for my tastes.
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mgibbons19
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PostPosted: Wed Aug 24, 2005 6:52 pm    Post subject: Re: Panic in the air? Add User to Ignore List Reply with quote

I like Mogambo! But, where in a small midwestern city does one buy precious metals? Gotta be kind of expensive having Kitco send stuff through the mail every do often.
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marko
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PostPosted: Wed Aug 24, 2005 6:54 pm    Post subject: Re: Panic in the air? Add User to Ignore List Reply with quote

MrBean wrote:
Mogambo Guru tells that Fed "actually started down the path of the ultimate fraud, and bought up $1.6 billion of government debt!"


Whoa! This really caught my attention.

Do you know what this means if it's true? It means that Asian central banks have stopped buying US government debt, or at least taken a breather. Because the Fed is the "buyer of last resort." This would be a very bearish sign for the dollar.

How reliable is this Mogambo, I wonder?
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jimmydean
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PostPosted: Wed Aug 24, 2005 7:49 pm    Post subject: Re: Panic in the air? Add User to Ignore List Reply with quote

If the 1.6B buyback is true this is very scary. Any other sources that can confirm this?
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OilsNotWell
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PostPosted: Wed Aug 24, 2005 8:16 pm    Post subject: Re: Panic in the air? Add User to Ignore List Reply with quote

Meekoil-

That is the most sickingly funny avatar I have EVER seen. Laughed so hard, milk dribbled out of my nipples.. Wink [Eeew...I know, I know]

Did you draw it yourself and then animate it?

Back OT:

The Mogambo has certainly helped me to understand Insanity Is Not Really Insane Government Economics (IINRIGE)....


Last edited by OilsNotWell on Wed Aug 24, 2005 8:20 pm; edited 1 time in total
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trespam
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PostPosted: Wed Aug 24, 2005 8:20 pm    Post subject: Re: Panic in the air? Add User to Ignore List Reply with quote

ab0di wrote:
meekoil wrote:
I highly recommend reading The Mogambo every week for the real truth about the US economy. And he's funny too.


He is funny, but I distrust anyone associated with Christian Reconstructionist Gary North to speak the truth. I find the gold bugs and "libertarian" economists a bit too bizarre for my tastes.


I read it for a while. But it soon becomes a broken record. The same thing over and over and over. And all the get-rich-quick adds interspersed with the articles makes me pause.
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DantesPeak
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PostPosted: Wed Aug 24, 2005 9:24 pm    Post subject: Re: Panic in the air? Add User to Ignore List Reply with quote

You may hav eto be a regular reader of The Mogambo to understand what he is saying.

The $1.6 billion he refers to means the size of additions to the Federal Reserve monetary base (further explained below) in one week.

The Fed has two main tools - controlling very short term interest rates and growing the monetary base. The grwoth of the monetary base usually has a direct relationship to the total money supply (including money in banks, money market accounts, etc.).

Anyway, $1.6 in one week is not much above the average growth rate of
$0.9 per week. If you see large upward changes in the money base, this sometimes called printing money, but in reality no money is printed. Just that governement debt is converted to Federal Reserve money, which is given to certain banks and brokers.

For more, you'll have to read a book on the subject.


The monetary base is mostly US Treasury bills and bonds the Fed purchases, plus temporary repos. A repo, short for repurchase agreement, is an agreement between the Fed and brokers from the primary group of 22 approved Treasury dealers. Usually one dealer sells the Fed a Treasury bill at a specified price with a commitment to buy the security back later for another specified price. The difference is based on the interbank interest rate, called Fed Funds rate. Most repos are overnight transactions, with the sale taking place one day and being reversed the next day. The Fed also makes occasional outright purchases of Treasury bills and bonds, which mostly occur during and after Treasury bond auctions. The monetary base is 'high-powered' money - sometimes called 'super-money' - which is pipelined directly back to Wall Street. It's used by major brokers and beyond to financial institutions on Main Street as a base for leveraged credit expansion, i.e. buying more US Treasuries, and stocks, mortgages, etc.
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DantesPeak
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PostPosted: Wed Aug 24, 2005 9:26 pm    Post subject: Re: Panic in the air? Add User to Ignore List Reply with quote

Long term chart of the problems discussed at top.

Ideally there should not be any mismatchs between buyers and sellers, except say because of 9/11, etc.

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meekoil
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PostPosted: Wed Aug 24, 2005 9:27 pm    Post subject: Re: Panic in the air? Add User to Ignore List Reply with quote

ab0di wrote:
meekoil wrote:
I highly recommend reading The Mogambo every week for the real truth about the US economy. And he's funny too.


He is funny, but I distrust anyone associated with Christian Reconstructionist Gary North to speak the truth. I find the gold bugs and "libertarian" economists a bit too bizarre for my tastes.


I didn't know anything about the Gary North connection, have to look into that. I guess I could be called a "libertarian" economist, so he suits me well.
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meekoil
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PostPosted: Wed Aug 24, 2005 9:31 pm    Post subject: Re: Panic in the air? Add User to Ignore List Reply with quote

OilsNotWell wrote:
Meekoil-

That is the most sickingly funny avatar I have EVER seen. Laughed so hard, milk dribbled out of my nipples.. Wink [Eeew...I know, I know]

Did you draw it yourself and then animate it?

Back OT:

The Mogambo has certainly helped me to understand Insanity Is Not Really Insane Government Economics (IINRIGE)....


Wish I could lie and say I did, but the truth is I found it online somewhere, I don't remember where. But immediately when I saw it I said to myself, "That is so gonna be my new PO.com avatar."
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