I think this is the beginnings of an economy based on perpetual growth and fossil fuel energy running headlong into geological energy constraints. Basically I see an undulatory downward path for the rest of my life. From here out, I think any rallies in our economic condition are going to be met with spiking commodity prices that knock us right back down.
Joined: Jul 04, 2005 Posts: 18 Location: Vancouver, BC
Posted: Fri Aug 26, 2005 12:29 am Post subject: Re: Canada - during & post-peak
Bbadwolf, I agree that BC is one of the better places to ride out post peak. Even the lower mainland should be ok, considering the fertile nature of the Fraser Valley, lots of hydro power. I share Cheaplaughs concern about the 400 million well armed citizens to the south though, do you think the Canadian military/ police force is capable of stemming the tide of illegals that is likely to ensue after their economy collapses? My prep so far has gone no further than planning a bug out to the closest network of logging roads that I can reach on my bicycle... _________________ You gotta be tough, if you're gonna be stupid - Unknown
Posted: Fri Aug 26, 2005 12:46 am Post subject: Re: Canada - during & post-peak
EarthAbides:
I suspect we both know that the Canadian military/police force couldn't stop a tide of laundry detergent! I fervently hope their transportation systems will limit them sufficiently to keep them from overwhelming us. In addition, I suspect that few of the prospective migrants will know how to survive in the wild. Likely they'll mostly be looking for work (not that we'll have any).
What scares me the most is the possibility that they may invade us. We haven't done anything true enough. But then, neither did Iraq. And like Iraq, we are almost completely defenseless. If Bush figures we have something he can use, we're screwed.
Joined: Dec 04, 2004 Posts: 2353 Location: perpetual state of exhaustion
Posted: Fri Aug 26, 2005 12:45 pm Post subject: Re: Canada - during & post-peak
I have a couple points to make. first Bush does know what is up here, Cheney was up here looking at the tar sands last week. but luckily the average american thinks the pavement stops two miles past the border and we live in igloos.
I think that we will find that most americans won't leave their cities and certianly wouldn't dream of leaving their country. having something this bad may just serve to ring them together again, a common cause close to their hearts that very much affects them.
they don't need to invade becuase our stupid version of neo-cons is selling off as much of the country as they can as fast as they can. and we I might add are doing nothing to stop this crap being the lazy, easily discouraged bunch that we are.
take for example gordo campbells trying to sell off shore drilling rights in an area that is not only extremely ecologically sensitive but highly unstable (being hit with an average of 50 earthquakes every 4 days, and they want to start drilling for oil ontop of that? we need a disgust smilie)
its true when they said there is only one Gord and Moulah is his Profit. all we can do realistically is to prepare as best we can and hold on for the ride. it really is a global world and most countries are in it together whether we like it or not.
PS. I just moved from vancouver and don't think that even the fraser valley can support the 3 million people in teh GVRD. but I guess we will see eh?
Posted: Fri Aug 26, 2005 2:16 pm Post subject: Re: Canada - during & post-peak
bbadwolf wrote:
This one is close to my heart so I had to make an id and comment.
I'm sort of new to Peak Oil (and exceedingly disappointed in it too!) and have been lurking here for a couple weeks.
I live in Vancouver. I think I need to get out of here, too big. But there is a huge amount of excellent land in southern BC (no, this isn't an invitation, ). Beautiful fertile valleys between hundreds of mountains, lakes & rivers, too many streams to count! There is a modest number of smaller towns and cities, usually about 50 miles apart from each other, populations in the 10 thousand range up to perhaps 50 k. Forests? Lets just say that it's us that the americans are screwing with the softwood tariff. We have forests. Millions of acres. If there is a place on this planet that ought to have an advantage, this region should be it.
One problem is that the summers have become dry as a popcorn fart. Used to be nice and damp! Now irrigation is necessary to grow nearly anything. Goddam global warming! Great tourist summers are not good farming summers.
Another problem is that I need to get out of the big city and into this more advantaged region. I'm currently not employed so I can move easily enough but I have to find work. I'm a computer programmer, ummm..I may need to learn some new skills when the economy tanks. D'ya think?
-bbad
I'm in the Gulf islands, and moved here with some apocolypse or another in mind. If you need to be near a fairly large population center, yet want to be in a vibrant rural area, the Cowichan valley, on Vancouver island, is a fairly good place to be. It's not far from Victoria, population 125,000, give or take a few. Feel free to send me a private message if you'd like anymore info.
I hear you about the dry summers. The arbutus trees are really looking sick.
Joined: Dec 04, 2004 Posts: 2353 Location: perpetual state of exhaustion
Posted: Sat Aug 27, 2005 1:38 am Post subject: Re: Canada - during & post-peak
Threadbear - I am very happy with where I am (been here a whole 3 months now), but wait until I've gone through another winter in the mountains (only 1750 feet) and we'll talk again.
This place is like the gulf islands, very laid back almost hippie type place. quite eco oriented, supports small business. with the exceptions of A&W, Wal-mart and Subway there aren't any other big chain store/franchises around.
Joined: Nov 11, 2004 Posts: 978 Location: Heart of Canada's Oil Country
Posted: Mon Aug 29, 2005 3:01 pm Post subject: Re: Canada - during & post-peak
Ontario and the eastern provinces which are top heavy in manufacturing goods for export to the US are going to be hit very hard. Ontario is already grumbling about being a have-not province in 5 years.
Alberta, and to a lesser extent Saskatchewan, will be sitting pretty. The royalties continue to flow in. Alberta is already debt free, we're trying to figure out what to do with the extra cash.
In general we have abundant resources, but we consume as much (if not a little bit more) energy than the US (which isn't a good thing). Because of NAFTA we will necessarily have to decrease our energy use.
If you live down east, I'd head west. _________________ Do not underestimate the difficulties of surviving the transition of peak oil, nor the dangers of global warming. We must embrace nuclear energy and renewables.
Joined: Nov 11, 2004 Posts: 978 Location: Heart of Canada's Oil Country
Posted: Mon Aug 29, 2005 3:03 pm Post subject: Re: Canada - during & post-peak
Errrr, actually, if you live down east, stay where you are. _________________ Do not underestimate the difficulties of surviving the transition of peak oil, nor the dangers of global warming. We must embrace nuclear energy and renewables.
Posted: Mon Aug 29, 2005 7:53 pm Post subject: Re: Canada - during & post-peak
The decline of NA auto manufacturing will hit Ontario very hard.Perhaps even more devestating is that the Toronto brokerages and banks,traditional sources of resource capital,are being left off the gravy train as Alberta attracts foreign investors.The challenge for Alberta will be keeping the feds from raiding her treasury.I expect to see many Liberal Notables hanging out in Edmonton in the next while.
As for the old east-west chopping game, don't forget Wayne the Immortal was from the east .Ian Tyson too.I expect that's good for a couple of billion in charity from you soft hearted cowboys.
Joined: Nov 11, 2004 Posts: 978 Location: Heart of Canada's Oil Country
Posted: Tue Aug 30, 2005 1:27 pm Post subject: Re: Canada - during & post-peak
There was an excellent article in the Globe and Mail about how pathetic it is that we Canadians are letting in so much foreign ownership to the oil sands.
You have to subscribe to get the full article
Tiny URL
On the other hand, having some Chinese, US etc ownership could allow Canada to remain untouched in the event any hostilities break out amongst the majors. _________________ Do not underestimate the difficulties of surviving the transition of peak oil, nor the dangers of global warming. We must embrace nuclear energy and renewables.
Posted: Wed Aug 31, 2005 8:34 am Post subject: Re: Canada - during & post-peak
Quote:
On the other hand, having some Chinese, US etc ownership could allow Canada to remain untouched in the event any hostilities break out amongst the majors.
Hopefully that's true.
But the US refusal to honour NAFTA agreements on softwood is troubling.Mckenna's pleas are falling on deaf ears.
With their $3billion surplus,what are Albertans thinking? Do you forsee any serious movement towards separatism?
Posted: Wed Aug 31, 2005 8:43 am Post subject: Re: Canada - during & post-peak
Quote:
Do you forsee any serious movement towards separatism?
Albertan's are long suffering, and I think most still think of themselves as Canadians first and Albertan's second. That being said people in my age group who lived through the NEP, a money grab orchestrated by Trudeau and Chretien still harbour ill-will for the Liberal government in Ottawa (it cost Alberta billions of dollars and nearly broke the back of the oil industry). It has always been clear that politicians in Ottawa are only interested in serving the folks where their votes come from....in the case of the Liberals this is Quebec and Ontario. My guess is that Alberta or for that matter Western Canada separtion is a tempest in a teapot until such time as the Liberal government tries to institute another windfall profits scheme like NEP.....at that point I am sure the talk will turn very serious.
Joined: Nov 11, 2004 Posts: 978 Location: Heart of Canada's Oil Country
Posted: Wed Aug 31, 2005 5:46 pm Post subject: Re: Canada - during & post-peak
rockdoc123 wrote:
Quote:
Do you forsee any serious movement towards separatism?
Albertan's are long suffering, and I think most still think of themselves as Canadians first and Albertan's second. That being said people in my age group who lived through the NEP, a money grab orchestrated by Trudeau and Chretien still harbour ill-will for the Liberal government in Ottawa (it cost Alberta billions of dollars and nearly broke the back of the oil industry). It has always been clear that politicians in Ottawa are only interested in serving the folks where their votes come from....in the case of the Liberals this is Quebec and Ontario. My guess is that Alberta or for that matter Western Canada separtion is a tempest in a teapot until such time as the Liberal government tries to institute another windfall profits scheme like NEP.....at that point I am sure the talk will turn very serious.
I agree, if the politicians even hint at taking oil revenue, it'll be a vicious reaction in Alberta. _________________ Do not underestimate the difficulties of surviving the transition of peak oil, nor the dangers of global warming. We must embrace nuclear energy and renewables.
Posted: Wed Aug 31, 2005 6:16 pm Post subject: Re: Canada - during & post-peak
I think it's inevitable the feds will raid the Albertan honeypot,either through transfer payments or an NEP-like program.Having $2.9 billion extra loonies in Confederation is like having a dry bed in New Orleans right now-everyone's gonna want to sleep in it.For the sake of peace,the next government should be Conservative but I don't think that's going to happen.
Joined: Mar 06, 2005 Posts: 306 Location: Elliot Lake, Ontario
Posted: Wed Aug 31, 2005 7:01 pm Post subject: Re: Canada - during & post-peak
The Alberta gold mine is tar sands..takes alot more to refine...you will get little out of what they bring up...i,m glad they sold a swamp in the middle of no where..if it was important ot our government they would have not sold it...it will take a netter refinery system to get anything out of there..and if you are really interested I have some froozen thundra to sell to you..as for us in Ontario..have you ever been here...way up north where i am..we have more tree,s then you can shake a stick at..and fish tons of fish..and crown land where you can stay anywhere..a house where you look out your front window and there is a lake of pure clean fresh water and thousands of lakes..growing capacity...if i get the chance tomorrow i will take pictures from my window with my cam..nothing in Ontario(secrets)lol..dam got to love our government..anyways i have travelled all through the states and nothing compares to seeing a full grown moose at the side of the road or bears play fighting in the bush..cause we just got back from 5 days of bush wacking..
Posted: Thu Sep 01, 2005 12:17 am Post subject: Re: Canada - during & post-peak
Well, following the North American template, Canada is set up really not much different than the United States.
Same suburban sprawl...same strip malls, same 40-story condos, same unwalkable communities, same trashed railway system, same drivable birthright, same chauffeured kids, same 13 car trips daily to do the chores...
We bought the lifestyle from south of the border.
(So we'd be a little hypocritical to start pointing fingers now.)
And just how energy-independent are we? (NAFTA notwithstanding)
We have a lot of water...which of course can't be burned in an internal combustion engine (although I suppose we could get around somewhat in that old traditional voyageur mode.)
A few numbers:
About 80% of the Canadian population is urban.
About 60% of the Canadian population is suburban.
We have just as much distance to cross as the neighbours south of the border...east-west, anyway. (North-south isn't as much of an issue.)
I figure our cities will contract, just like everywhere else.
We'll have to seriously think about mass transit alternatives.
I don't imagine 5 million Ontarians will suddenly head to BC....
(although PEI might start looking more attractive to some)
I can see a lot of people suddenly becoming a lot more tolerant of summer heatwaves...but that Canadian winter will become a factor.
Good time to be in the pot-bellied stove business. A good one can heat about a thousand square feet. Good time to be in the cord wood business too.
Hell, we can step that up and cut down about 99% on all the cheap useless advertising flyers, and come out ahead - leave a whole lot of trees standing!
Politically...I can see us slipping right off the world map. All the focus will be south of us.
But really...this is all long term. Right now we're just as obliviously chugging along as anybody else.
I live in downtown Toronto. I mass transit everywhere. My microvan stays parked out back.
I expect to see house prices in my neighbourhood start to climb, as perimeter people begin to seriously think about re-locating.
Toronto is a greater urban area of over 5 million people, and at least 4 million are suburban. That's going to be some party when those people have to bike to a Go-train station (the ones who actually work downtown.)
Any bets on Alberta bowing out of the union? (That's where all the oil is.)
Of course...Newfoundlanders would just love to mix it up with Ottawa. Don't know how much oil they have left.
BC is a hard place to get around without oil....(try taking something wind-powered through the Lion's Gate tidal bore sometime.)
I think most of the rail infrastructure is still in place, though.
The tar sands? When oil gets to about $500 a barrel, someone somewhere might come up with the cash to have a go at it.
I can see it now.....wind power on the Great Lakes. That's Montreal to Thunder Bay in....a couple of months?
As far as Ontario and manufacturing go...when Wally's rolling warehouse bites the dust, and cheap Chinese plastic products suddenly turn more expensive per pound than gold, and the result of all this is localised and regional manufacturing returning to North America, the high population density of the Northeast will kick in and do whatever it does.
I wonder...will nations just close in on themselves...or gang together somewhat?
I can see Europe collectively setting up a whole new economic union...one that is truly European.
If North America follows that model...then I guess we'll see some new version of NAFTA. Only a bit more regionalized. Such as a Pacific northwest union with Alberta and BC.
Just because we can't afford 12000 mile Kiwi fruit anymore, doesn't mean we won't do the 500 mile jogs...just not necessarily by 18-wheelers.
(do I hear a train whistle in the distance?)
Bulletin: Keep your eyes peeled for a new Canadian produced documentary (follow-up to Greg Green's "The End of Suburbia" called "Escape From Suburbia")
Could be next year's big hit.
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). Beautiful fertile valleys between hundreds of mountains, lakes & rivers, too many streams to count! There is a modest number of smaller towns and cities, usually about 50 miles apart from each other, populations in the 10 thousand range up to perhaps 50 k. Forests? Lets just say that it's us that the americans are screwing with the softwood tariff. We have forests. Millions of acres. If there is a place on this planet that ought to have an advantage, this region should be it.
