Hurricane Rita Current News Thread

DantesPeak

Now known as Tropical Depression 18, expected to become Hurricane Rita in a few days. Although only expected to maybe reach only Category 2 strength in 3 or 4 days, it will be a threat to oil/gas production as it crosses the Gulf of Mexico:

tdrive · Heavy Crude Joined: Jul 11, 2004 Posts: 350

Starvid

I feel a little evil saying this, but I hope it hits the oil industry, driving prices higher. It will increase interest in fuel issues.
_________________
Peak oil is not an energy crisis. It is a liquid fuel crisis.

tdrive · Heavy Crude Joined: Jul 11, 2004 Posts: 350

Starvid

Of course I don't hope anyone gets hurt!

But if gasoline prices are pushed higher, even if only temporarily, I think that would be a good thing. It will make people more interested in energy issues which will make energy mitigation start quicker.
_________________
Peak oil is not an energy crisis. It is a liquid fuel crisis.

Jack · Dark Lord Joined: Aug 11, 2004 Posts: 4970

Starvid

I think a very big problem today is that 99 % of society don't know anything at all about energy. All energy air time is good.
_________________
Peak oil is not an energy crisis. It is a liquid fuel crisis.

OZ_DOC · Heavy Crude Joined: Sep 14, 2005 Posts: 115

One of the scary things about this storm is until a few hours ago it was predicted to be a cat 2 by the time it reached florida. One model had it at cat 3. However a single fly over by a hurricane tracker plane on its way to TS phillipe resulted in the shift of trajectory further south and the downshift in expected strengthening.

The current GFDL and BAM models have this storm headed staight for Houston. Dont want to be too alarming here but i think this intermediary information is based on limited data. Also if this storm does thread between Florida and Cuba then theyre wont be any mitigation of the storms strength from a Florida landfall, as limited as that often is.

How exposed is the texan coast oil industry to weather like this? I know weather fairly well but not Texas. Either way all the forecast models bar one (NOGAPS) have this storm passing straight through gulf oil territory.

dunewalker

Has anyone noticed the number of hurricanes presently shown on the wunderground tropical weather map, in both Atlantic (Ophelia, Philippe, Rita)& Pacific(Jova, Kenneth, Lidia, Vicente)? Is this a record?
_________________
"I believe that a wise Vermonter lives more by lack of expense rather than from income."--some Dartmouth professor from across the river

DantesPeak

Shannymara · Master Joined: Oct 04, 2004 Posts: 5136 Location: Oklahoma

You can get an idea of the confidence in the forecasts and the reasoning behind them by reading NHC's discussions. This product is written to give you some insight into the thinking of the forecasters:

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCDAT3+shtml/180842.shtml

some_guy282 · Intermediate Crude Joined: Jul 18, 2004 Posts: 689

Has there yet been any solid word on the underwater damage caused by Katrina?
_________________
In individuals, insanity is rare; but in groups, parties, nations, and epochs it is the rule. – Nietzsche

Time makes more converts than reason. – Thomas Paine

History is a set of lies agreed upon. – Napoleon Bonaparte

OZ_DOC · Heavy Crude Joined: Sep 14, 2005 Posts: 115

Right on cue.

"THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 275/10...NEARLY ALONG THE PREVIOUS
ADVISORY TRACK. HOWEVER...THE SOUTHERLY SHEAR COULD BE FORCING SOME
REDEVELOPMENT OF THE CENTER FARTHER NORTH DURING THE NEXT DAY OR
SO...AND IN FACT IT COULD ALREADY BE SLIGHTLY NORTH OF THE ADVISORY
POSITION. THERE SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT RIDGING TO FORCE THE TROPICAL
CYCLONE GENERALLY WESTWARD FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...ALTHOUGH
SOME WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION COULD OCCUR DUE TO SOME DOWNSHEAR
REFORMATION OF THE CENTER. THE NEW FORECAST TRACK IS ADJUSTED
SLIGHTLY NORTH OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY THROUGH 36 HOURS...THEN
ALONG THE PREVIOUS TRACK AFTER THAT...EXCEPT FOR INTRODUCING A
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD BEND AT THE END OF THE FORECAST DUE TO MODELS
EXPECTED SOME WEAKENING OF THE RIDGE IN THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO.

THE FORECAST WIND RADII HAVE BEEN EXPANDED BASED ON THE CURRENT SIZE
OF THE CIRCULATION AND ON WIND RADII CLIPER GUIDANCE. BASED ON THE
NEW FORECAST... HURRICANE WATCHES HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR THE FLORIDA
KEYS."

So basically the NHC discussion has shifted north again to match with the computer models that have this thing either just tipping or just missing Florida, proceeding westerly into the gulf then heading north-westerly to the texas coastline around houston. I stress this is just discussion as any weather forecast more than a day out becomes boderline. But definitely one to watch. The wind stength predictions have this reaching Hurricane strength b4 reaching florida again now, and it goes higher with each update of data. The gulf is really warm at the moment and atmospheric conditions in the gulf are good for rapid intensification.

DantesPeak · Last edited by DantesPeak on Sun Sep 18, 2005 10:56 am; edited 1 time in total

OZ_DOC - interesting comments.

Yes the projected route is shifting towards Houston, but at this point that target is still speculative.

So far, they are saying it only reaches CAT 2, but I think in public the weather service does not want to alarm people. We heard after Katrina that they issued private warnings that were much more serious and specific about possible storm tarcks and intensities - and not just what the consensus forecast was.

OZ_DOC · Heavy Crude Joined: Sep 14, 2005 Posts: 115

i fully agree im speculating my ass off, and quite frankly given the "NOBODY saw this coming" attitude off the US administration since katrina, which was patently absurd, any scan of a tropical weather discussion forum, not to mention the us weather agencies own predictions show that. The fact that any part of infrastructure is as critical and vulnerable is staggering. I dont know whether it'll even end up in texas, most of the models suggest it will as a major hurricane, but the question has to be what is the worst that could happen. Typically in power grids they are designd so that the single largest component of the grid can fail and the grid remain stable (eg power plant, distribution line etc) can the US oil industry ithstand losing Houston?