How then, do we move backwards? How does a society, with most of the people having no clue of future events, move from being dependent on a vast and intertwined network of goods and services produced by the indigenous people of whereever, to a local resource and renewable energy based society, and do so in the timeframe available (20-30 years using the most liberal extimates, 10-20 with resonable estimates, 5-10 with worst case scenarios), all the while prices on everything increasing, world politics getting more militaristic, governments continuously reducing civil liberties, shortages of goods on the market and weather patterns resembling bad Hollywood movies?
Posted: Thu Sep 22, 2005 6:50 am Post subject: Re: IEA - 'Peak Oil' nonsense
ME: The IEA are a bunch of idiots. _________________ In individuals, insanity is rare; but in groups, parties, nations, and epochs it is the rule. – Nietzsche
Time makes more converts than reason. – Thomas Paine
History is a set of lies agreed upon. – Napoleon Bonaparte
Posted: Thu Sep 22, 2005 8:46 am Post subject: Re: IEA - 'Peak Oil' nonsense
Quote:
The IEA estimates that there are roughly 10 trillion barrels of oil equivalent of conventional oil and gas in place and at least as much non-conventional oil.
so 5 to 10 times more than we've been able to find in the last 150 years of searching
boy do we ever have nothing to worry about.
Why stop at only one hummer. Buy one for the whole family. _________________ Angry yet?
Joined: Aug 10, 2004 Posts: 1104 Location: San Diego, CA, USA
Posted: Thu Sep 22, 2005 8:56 am Post subject: Re: IEA - 'Peak Oil' nonsense
Here's a question though that I'd like to have answered. I'm sure it's out there. Can anyone provide me with a paper or study that looks at the entire globe, looks at the geology of where oil should be, where it has been found, in what quantities, what qualities, how much exploration was performed to find that oil, etc etc etc
What are you guys using to draw your conclusions. What data source? Kusntler doesn't talk about this. Heinberg doesn't. Campbell barely does. Just a few words.
Where's the analysis? Or do you just believe what you want to believe?
Joined: Jan 04, 2005 Posts: 623 Location: Australia
Posted: Thu Sep 22, 2005 9:03 am Post subject: Re: IEA - 'Peak Oil' nonsense
FoxV wrote:
Quote:
The IEA estimates that there are roughly 10 trillion barrels of oil equivalent of conventional oil and gas in place and at least as much non-conventional oil.
so 5 to 10 times more than we've been able to find in the last 150 years of searching
boy do we ever have nothing to worry about.
Why stop at only one hummer. Buy one for the whole family.
Key words - in place. Oil in place is 6-8 trillion bbl so that figure for oil and gas in place is about right. Of course not all can be recovered.
Joined: Feb 25, 2005 Posts: 772 Location: Luton, England
Posted: Thu Sep 22, 2005 9:11 am Post subject: Re: IEA - 'Peak Oil' nonsense
First thing I note is this quote
Quote:
Sept. 22 (Bloomberg) -- The International Energy Agency said technological investments will expand world oil supplies, dismissing ``peak oil'' theories that supplies are running out.
Shouldn't someone tell them that peaking is not about running out.
Secondly I would like to show them Albert Bartletts presentation on the exponential function.
Are we likely to find more oil than has ever been used in the histrory of mankind in the next doubling time? I doubt it very much.
I don't know the rate of economic growth to do the quick sum but I seem to remember the doubling time being 40 - 50 years.
Just a thought, I haven't seen the evidence you would like to see trespam, but isn't that why simmons is calling for transparency.
Joined: Oct 12, 2004 Posts: 989 Location: Where walking makes you a wierdo
Posted: Thu Sep 22, 2005 9:19 am Post subject: Re: IEA - 'Peak Oil' nonsense
Aren't the IEA the same guys who wrote "Saving Oil in a Hurry"?
Saving Oil in a hurry is a guidebook for governments to implement draconian measures for emergency conservation. It liberally uses the phrase "police enforcement".
Why would they forsee the need for such a document if there is all the oil we could possibly need is out there?
Posted: Thu Sep 22, 2005 9:21 am Post subject: Re: IEA - 'Peak Oil' nonsense
Quote:
At least $5 trillion in investment will be needed in the next three decades to tap reserves, the IEA said, repeating a figure it has already used. The IEA has never before directly responded to ``peak oil'' theorists who say the agency is overly optimistic about estimates of increased production.
hmm! let's do the calculation:
production at 85 mbpd in 2005, we assume a demand growth of 2% (conservative) over the next 30 years= 1.26 trillions of barrels
we remove approximatively 300 Gb that will be extracted from existing field.
5 / (1.26 - 0.3)= $5 of new investment for each produced barrel
that's not much, tar sands are profitable above $40 a barrel for instance. _________________ ______________________________________
http://GraphOilogy.blogspot.com
Joined: Oct 14, 2004 Posts: 1203 Location: Left the cult
Posted: Thu Sep 22, 2005 9:34 am Post subject: Re: IEA - 'Peak Oil' nonsense
It despairs me to read another report that is so terminally stupid, I wonder if the authors even went to school.
The shocking truth is that it does not matter how much oil is in place. Really it doesn't! What matters is how much it costs to extract that oil. Producing oil from shale is not going to cost much less than $40/bl. If it did, then it would already be being exploited. This is such a simple principle of economics it makes me doubt the authors education. Some of that OIP will cost $100/bl to produce, some will cost $200/bl - but none will cost $20/bl. As Boone Pickens simply puts it - we have run out of $20 oil, next we will run out of $40, and so on.
The same applies to other energy sources, e.g. nuclear. Some people seem to think we will enter a new golden age when we shake off smelly fossil fuels and embrace nuclear. We won't, because nuclear will never give us the equivalent of $20/barrel oil.
The point people seem to fail to grasp is that there is declining curve, and we can't go back up it. _________________ It's all downhill from here
Posted: Thu Sep 22, 2005 10:17 am Post subject: Re: IEA - 'Peak Oil' nonsense
trespam wrote:
Here's a question though that I'd like to have answered. I'm sure it's out there. Can anyone provide me with a paper or study that looks at the entire globe, looks at the geology of where oil should be, where it has been found, in what quantities, what qualities, how much exploration was performed to find that oil, etc etc etc
What are you guys using to draw your conclusions. What data source? Kusntler doesn't talk about this. Heinberg doesn't. Campbell barely does. Just a few words.
Where's the analysis? Or do you just believe what you want to believe?
I have seen the maps of all the known fields along with where more could possible be(geology). However I do not have them personally. They were prized by Dr Charlie Hall at ESF. This data I studied in the past(1996) is what I go on. The rest of the predicters go in one ear out the other. I take this data and observe consumption and population growth and thats how I tell around when we will be "changin".
You know we have been combing the earth for decades?
There is little room between each field. Most fields are small. And there are very few uncharted areas. Its what we have been doing for decades now. Its been industrialized societies job! Full time position with overtime.
but if u want to email Dr. Hall here is his site. Hes busy down in the experimental forest but try one of his grad students maybe. Or get one of his papers listed. Try Dr. Jerry Mead, ecosystem modeler.
I will try and get this data too. I think its good stuff. But asking him to give up his maps I dont think so. be nice and cordial if you do, ok. He spoke at the aspo is lisbon 2005.
Posted: Thu Sep 22, 2005 10:39 am Post subject: Re: IEA - 'Peak Oil' nonsense
Quote:
He spoke at the aspo is lisbon 2005.
Yes, I liked him.
He was funny (although his presentation, IMHO was not really very relevant…)
But he seemed honest (and he accepted that is data needed significant revisions...).
Posted: Thu Sep 22, 2005 11:00 am Post subject: Re: IEA - 'Peak Oil' nonsense
The IEA are correct.
If you 'believe' in peak oil then reading this article at the link below can only bring you to accept (as in - end of denial) that peak oil is indeed never going to happen.
Sorry all, but it's pretty obvious if you de Ostrich for a moment
http://www.curevents.com/vb/showthread.php?t=22803
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