How then, do we move backwards? How does a society, with most of the people having no clue of future events, move from being dependent on a vast and intertwined network of goods and services produced by the indigenous people of whereever, to a local resource and renewable energy based society, and do so in the timeframe available (20-30 years using the most liberal extimates, 10-20 with resonable estimates, 5-10 with worst case scenarios), all the while prices on everything increasing, world politics getting more militaristic, governments continuously reducing civil liberties, shortages of goods on the market and weather patterns resembling bad Hollywood movies?
Joined: Feb 20, 2005 Posts: 2640 Location: Uppsala, Sweden
Posted: Wed Sep 28, 2005 1:14 pm Post subject: Re: German Election-discussions and implications
The best thing right now would be a CDU+SPD government. The parties can appoint a Chancellor each, and the Chancellors will work for 2 years each. When the Chancellor in question isn't Chancellor, she/he can be minister of finance.
They could take Schröder/Merkel or a completely differnent pair, like Muntefering/Someone Else. _________________ Peak oil is not an energy crisis. It is a liquid fuel crisis.
Posted: Wed Sep 28, 2005 7:00 pm Post subject: Re: German Election-discussions and implications
MrBill wrote:
Why growth matters. The population is growing therefore you need jobs to support a larger population. Stop population growth and immigration and you need less growth.
For neoliberal capitalism, which by nature increases economic iniquality, to work, much more growth than keeping with population growth is needed in order to maintain social stability. And BTW population growth in Germany is allready wery small and about to turn negative.
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Also, Germany has 12.6% unemployment. Schroeder and SPD have been in power for 8-years and they have not been able to reform the present system that they inherited from the Kohl's CDU and all its legacy costs relating to re-unification and expensive promises made to the EU. The goal of SPD cannot be to give Scroeder a job. It has to be in power to reform the system and create more jobs.
Unemployment is not the problem, social exclusion is. The whole point of increased productivity should be ability to work less for a good quality of life - not to increase shareholders profits while creating more poor which is all that matters to the neoliberals.
And you are wrong about Schröder governement not carrying plenty of neoliberal reforms - plenty of social programs cut and labour costs in Germany are now among Europe's lowest, which of course means increased insecurity and lower domestic demand. German and other European consumers cannot be lured to insane purely debt driven asset bubble consumerism as Americans (The total income of Americans in 2003, adjusted for inflation, was 4 percent smaller than in 1999), we may be stupid, but not that stupid. The hare didn't make it to the goal, the tortoise did.
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If you live in a social system you need economic growth to pay for it. Someone has to pay for pensions and other benefits generously given to the German people.
No, social(ist) system does not need economic growth, but solidarity, authentic democracy, well educated people, good organization of distribution etc. Cuban social system survived equivalent to a very abrupt peak oil quite well.
Quote:
German industry has to remain competitive. German companies like Deutsche Bank and Siemens are laying off workers to lower their costs and increase their profitability. Those German companies that are building new factories are not building them in Germany. They are building them in eastern Europe or elsewhere. So even if these companies make money for their shareholders, they are not creating jobs for Germans.
So the problem is greedy shareholders in search of greater and greater profits. Easy to fix: every time the capitalist plans to close production at one place and move it to another, workers should be offered choise to form a cooperative or some other kind of collective to take over the facilities and continue production.
Quote:
I am not patronizing Germans, but I am also not a complete idiot. I care enough about Germany that I would prefer not to see it go into a economic death spiral. If you cut back on social spending and wealth transfers then you need less growth to pay for it. Plain & simple.
Cutting back on social spending and wealt transfers, what goea also by the name "race to the bottom" IS death spiral. Plain and simple you sound like the doctor who said: patient died but the operation was succesfull.
Quote:
I think we are all aware we live on one planet with only limited resources. Do you have any more blinding insights for me?
So what conclusions do you draw from that "blinding insight"? More competition, growing profits for the shareholders and manic consumerism while fun lasts? Or more co-operation, solidarity and preparing for the bad day?
Quote:
Well, if this is the case, then why has Mr. Schroeder not been called upon to form the next government with the support of all the left of center parties? Hmm?
Because Schröder's party can be hardly called "left of center" (except mathematically). Schröder turned that party into a right wing party, not as far right as the closet-fascist Blair, but centrist-right anyway. And as consequense of that, a new left of centre party was formed, which robbed Blue-Green coalition their majority.
Posted: Thu Sep 29, 2005 12:40 am Post subject: Re: German Election-discussions and implications
Ah, I see my mistake now. I thought I was in a forum about the German election, discussions and implications? Now, I see it is all about socialism and turning the 3rd largest economy in the world into something that resembles Cuba? My mistake. Sorry. _________________ The organized state is a wonderful invention whereby everyone can live at someone else's expense.
Joined: May 31, 2004 Posts: 920 Location: Brno, Czech rep., EU
Posted: Thu Sep 29, 2005 5:07 am Post subject: Re: German Election-discussions and implications
Hehe, Cuba is fun, after you graduate at university, you can work along of your Ox on your sugar cane field, and if you work hard enough you can later buy a bycicle.
But make sure you don't criticize the island of freedom and it's leaders, you will end in prison or worse if you try to ..
Posted: Thu Sep 29, 2005 5:53 am Post subject: Re: German Election-discussions and implications
Hey, Cuba is a great place to be a tourist. But, if you're working there, well it's a socialists' paradise. The whole family pitches in. There is sugar cane plantation work; tourist hotels run by the Army; grandmom can still roll cigars at the factory; hard currency stores for those who can afford it; little Juan can stitch baseballs by hand for export; and, on the weekends, Sis can earn a little extra pocket money by prostituting herself for Spanish & Canadian businessmen in Havanna to look for oil & gas in the Gulf Stream. Everyone works, everyone enjoys the meagre fruits of their labor. Not like Germany where only rich companies and their shareholders have a good life. _________________ The organized state is a wonderful invention whereby everyone can live at someone else's expense.
Posted: Thu Sep 29, 2005 7:18 am Post subject: Re: German Election-discussions and implications
MrBill wrote:
Ah, I see my mistake now. I thought I was in a forum about the German election, discussions and implications? Now, I see it is all about socialism and turning the 3rd largest economy in the world into something that resembles Cuba? My mistake. Sorry.
Please don't try to change the subject to Cuba bashing when lacking arguments to defend your position. Neoliberalism, social democracy and socialism is what German election was about, and trying to frame the debate in a way that only neoliberal point of view is allowed to be discussed is intellectual dishonesty to say the least.
German Chancellor Gerhard Schroeder has for the first time since last month's election hinted he might abandon his claim to lead the next government.
Speaking on German television, he said he would not stand in the way of a stable government being formed.
_________________ "The age of excess is over. The age of entropy has begun"
Germany's Chancellor Gerhard Schroeder and his conservative rival Angela Merkel have held a meeting over who will lead the country in future.
They left a four-hour meeting on Thursday without commenting. A final decision is not expected before Sunday
I'm gonna guess that Merkel will become Chancellor in exchange for the SPD getting some important positions.
The key issue here though is whether or not people believe that the most important economy in Europe can continue developing confidently with a 'grand coalition' ruling.
The potential for disagreement and uncertainty is huge. _________________ "The age of excess is over. The age of entropy has begun"
Posted: Fri Oct 07, 2005 5:07 pm Post subject: Re: German Election-discussions and implications
The silly thing here is that Germany's economic troubles were in large part cyclic. Investment capital was draining out of the country into the economic pits of Europe who happen to have much lower labor costs. German workers cannot compete with them because they ask for way too much pay.
This has turned around recently. The stock market in Frankfurt made miraculous gains of about 25% over the past year. Investors are wisening up and moving back to Germany. The job market is going to spring back to life whether or not the government actually reforms anything.
Joined: Oct 04, 2004 Posts: 2496 Location: Ye Olde Englande
Posted: Sun Oct 09, 2005 9:55 am Post subject: Re: German Election-discussions and implications
jaws wrote:
The silly thing here is that Germany's economic troubles were in large part cyclic. Investment capital was draining out of the country into the economic pits of Europe who happen to have much lower labor costs. German workers cannot compete with them because they ask for way too much pay.
This has turned around recently. The stock market in Frankfurt made miraculous gains of about 25% over the past year. Investors are wisening up and moving back to Germany. The job market is going to spring back to life whether or not the government actually reforms anything.
But surely the political decisions that are made will have an outcome on the economy.
It seems strange to think that the fate of politicians rests purely in the hands of economists. _________________ "The age of excess is over. The age of entropy has begun"
Chancellor-designate Angela Merkel will have only limited authority in Germany's planned left-right government, leaders of its two main parties said, as they prepared Tuesday for the start of full-blown coalition negotiations.
Merkel appears set to become Germany's first female leader after her conservatives reached a preliminary power-sharing deal with Chancellor Gerhard Schroeder's Social Democrats on Monday.
As predicted.
I'm going to be following German politics like never before. _________________ "The age of excess is over. The age of entropy has begun"
Germany's new finance minister Peer Steinbrueck is a man whose hobbies are likely to help him in his day job.
A lover of chess and model ships, the 58-year-old is going to have to rely on his strategic thinking and eye for fiddly detail if he is to bring Germany's battered finances in order.
His most pressing problem will be cutting Germany's record budget deficit and bringing it back within European Union limits.
_________________ "The age of excess is over. The age of entropy has begun"
Joined: Feb 20, 2005 Posts: 2640 Location: Uppsala, Sweden
Posted: Sun Oct 16, 2005 4:41 am Post subject: Re: German Election-discussions and implications
Oh well. This new government might change the stupid German nuclear policies, where each reactor is to have an average political lifetime of 32 years. CDU is decidedly pro-nuke and might push that limit upwards or eliminate it all together.
Who runs the ministry that deals with energy issues? Socialist or Christian Democrat? _________________ Peak oil is not an energy crisis. It is a liquid fuel crisis.
Posted: Sun Oct 16, 2005 4:52 pm Post subject: Re: German Election-discussions and implications
According to this website (http://www.world-nuclear.org/news/2005/wd_sep30.htm ), the resurrection of nuclear policy is expected in Germany.
German nuclear relief.
While the recent German election did not produce the clear result expected, elimination of the Greens from possible coalitions has meant a significant change for Germany's nuclear generators which provide 30% of the country's electricity. Most importantly, the erosion of trust and its effect on undermining the nuclear safety culture under the previous regulatory regime is expected to be remedied, as Green appointees are replaced. Also the phase-out policy will be modified or at least stalled, as pragmatism prevails. Lifetime extensions for nuclear reactors are possible, and resumption of work on waste repositories is likely, as is reinstatement of export credit guarantees for nuclear technology.
W. Breyer, Kerntext 26/9/05.
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