Joined: Jun 13, 2005 Posts: 1206 Location: Western US
Posted: Wed Oct 05, 2005 8:14 am Post subject: Hard core doomers -- lacking in imagination?
An article a couple of weeks old. Could it be that hard core end of the world is coming doomers are like the "all will be fine" economists in wearing blinders and unwilling to consider other plausible outcomes? Failing to use your imagination about future possible scenarios? Keep an open mind. No one knows how things will shake out.
The real problem with the peak-oil argument has less to do with engineering than with philosophy. It lacks imagination. Thirty years ago few thought it would be possible to produce price-competitive oil from Canadian oil sands. Today the cost of producing that oil is about $20 a barrel and is still falling (see "The Dark Magic of Oil Sands"). Similarly, you can't rule out the idea that today's speculative energy technologies (see "Here Come the New Fuels") will become cost-efficient by the time Middle East oil production starts to wane. "The peak-oil argument underestimates the potential for technological progress," says Economy.com's Thorsten Fischer, who expects oil to fall to about $40 a barrel by next year. Simmons thinks prices could triple by 2010.
Peak-oil theory also overlooks alternative explanations for why oil exploration hasn't been terribly fruitful in recent years. It may be that there is oil to be found, but investors haven't given oil companies the requisite incentives to find it. Blame the dot-com boom. Having been burned by accounting cheats and profitless wonders, post-2000 investors demanded cash flow, dividends, and stock buybacks. So despite booming profits and revenues, Exxon Mobil spent less on capital and exploration in 2004 than in 2003. And the $11.7 billion figure for 2004 was $3 billion less than the company earmarked for dividends and buybacks. Of course, $65 oil has a way of changing priorities. After years of stagnation, drilling-rig counts have soared 36% since April 2004. There are 2,895 active rigs worldwide, according to Baker Hughes, the most since 1986.
Joined: Aug 23, 2004 Posts: 705 Location: Frost Free in New Zealand
Posted: Wed Oct 05, 2005 8:23 am Post subject: Re: Hard core doomers -- lacking in imagination?
You're having a hard job imagining an end to your cosy lifestyle aren't you _________________ Let us make him who shall nourish and sustain us. What shall we do to be invoked; to be remembered in the earth.
We have tried with our first creatures but we could not make them venerate us.
So let us try to make obedient respectful beings who shall
Posted: Wed Oct 05, 2005 8:32 am Post subject: Re: Hard core doomers -- lacking in imagination?
That isn't the truth at all, it's just a load of economist propaganda once again trying to convince you that the laws of science don't apply to oil supplies.
Last edited by Raxozanne on Wed Oct 05, 2005 8:58 am; edited 2 times in total
Posted: Wed Oct 05, 2005 8:34 am Post subject: Re: Hard core doomers -- lacking in imagination?
An old axiom from police detective work is "follow the money".
The Chinese investments seem to reach a center oil floor of about $45 US/barrel. This tells me that oil prices will remain high for a very long time.
I believe that a large number of market economist want a bust in the oil price so bad they can taste it. Unfortunately I fail to see this happening for them as it did in 1980 and 1991.
Coal to liquid fuel, the Chinese seem to think it is the next big thing 43 Billion invested! They've entered into negotiations with SASOL on an electric co-generation facility. Alberta oil sand, ditto with heavy Chinese investments. All this activity tells me peak is close at hand and the alternatives to crude oil supplies are rapidly in development. This all moves the energy floor to a much higher price point.
It may not be the crash & burn a lot of doomers thought but we're definitely sliding in that direction.
Joined: Jun 13, 2005 Posts: 1206 Location: Western US
Posted: Wed Oct 05, 2005 9:33 am Post subject: Re: Hard core doomers -- lacking in imagination?
skiwi wrote:
You're having a hard job imagining an end to your cosy lifestyle aren't you
Hee hee. I'm not in denial about peak oil. One possible outcome I can imagine is something like a global depression. I don't currently subscribe to the notion that the ONLY possible outcome is armeggadon/mad max. I think I'm in good company (Smalley, Simmons, etc.)
Posted: Wed Oct 05, 2005 9:41 am Post subject: Re: Hard core doomers -- lacking in imagination?
LadyRuby wrote:
skiwi wrote:
You're having a hard job imagining an end to your cosy lifestyle aren't you
Hee hee. I'm not in denial about peak oil. One possible outcome I can imagine is something like a global depression. I don't currently subscribe to the notion that the ONLY possible outcome is armeggadon/mad max. I think I'm in good company (Smalley, Simmons, etc.)
I think Smalley and Simmons are in that camp because they are hinging on (1) there is still enough time and (2) that something can be done in a concerted, planned manner. I'm a doomer because (1) we don't know how much time we have and (2) nothing is being done in a concerted, planned manner.
Posted: Wed Oct 05, 2005 9:55 am Post subject: Re: Hard core doomers -- lacking in imagination?
Everything will be fine.
Sure it's gonna be tough, but we have been there before.
When the chips are down, almost everyone is going to understand that they must voluntarily sacrifice to help their brothers & sisters around the world.
Heck... 10 years after PO, we will all be sitting around the pond skipin stones and having a good laugh about how paranoid some people were back then.
Yup... apple pie coolin on the window sill. Skinned knees & spelling bees.
Ahhh... breathing in the clear, fresh air, untouched by belching smoke stacks. Clear pools of mineral water, where fruits and exotic nuts grow in abundance, and a host of specially trained monkey-butlers attend our every need.
Norman Rockwell eat your heart out!
I can't wait for our wonderful post-carbon future!
(How's that for imagination?) _________________ "When you understand why you dismiss all the other possible gods, you will understand why I dismiss yours." - Stephen F Roberts.
Joined: Dec 27, 2004 Posts: 12559 Location: zombie horde wonderland
Posted: Wed Oct 05, 2005 10:11 am Post subject: Re: Hard core doomers -- lacking in imagination?
Whoa, hard to keep from flamin' here.
It's not about a lack of imagination, it's about observation.
Doomers do not observe meaningful change occuring. That is what they base their doomerism on, I believe. They do not see sufficient movement in a useful and necessary direction to offset the problems facing us.
They do not see alternatives coming on line in a timely fashion.
They do not see people powering down/conserving.
They do not see people becoming peaceful and eager to share.
Is this SO hard to understand? _________________ No original ideas are contained in this post.
Joined: Jun 13, 2005 Posts: 1206 Location: Western US
Posted: Wed Oct 05, 2005 10:46 am Post subject: Re: Hard core doomers -- lacking in imagination?
Ludi wrote:
Is this SO hard to understand?
Even if these are all true, it does not necessarily equal the end of civilization, the extinction of the human race, etc. Is that so hard to understand?
Posted: Wed Oct 05, 2005 11:22 am Post subject: Re: Hard core doomers -- lacking in imagination?
I think there is some truth to this. I am a doomer precisely because I don't use my imagination to envision future energy sources. I think there is a good possibility that we can keep things going for quite a while on coal to oil, shale oil, and tar sands. But, I avoid building my life around industries that don't exist today.
Since the life that I have today obviously can't continue without the introduction of new energy sources that I can't rely on, I'm a doomer.
If doom turns out to be a bad prediction, that's OK with me.
Joined: Aug 10, 2004 Posts: 1104 Location: San Diego, CA, USA
Posted: Wed Oct 05, 2005 11:23 am Post subject: Re: Hard core doomers -- lacking in imagination?
Doomers have good imaginations. Whenever the date of doom moves out, they are able to imagine all kinds of reasons for this to have happened this particular time, but why it won't apply next time.
ASPO moves the peak out to 2010. Further demand destruction and investment will likely move that out to 2015. Doomers will have a lot of imagining to do in order to explain why the end of the world has not happened yet.
Here's a prediction. When Peak Oil REALLY becomes a problem, one that society is finally willing to face, it will no longer be populated with so many doomers and losers. Right now, it's just not the case. When the time is right, the Rupperts, the Kunstlers, the peak oil moderators (or most of them) and all the rest will be swept aside so people with real imaginations can deal with it.
I'm not sure I even believe the "we need to do something now before its too late" story. First, it's not going to happen. Second, the idea that we need 20 years--e.g. Hirsch et. al.--is simply trying to construct a seamless transition so all the soft consumers (which I think includes most doomers sitting at their computers pretending that they are survivalists) can get to the other side without losing their jobs. Bad news: you're proabably going to lose your job. Won't be able to sit at the damn terminal as much. Might have to do something real. With your hands. Damn. Life ain't fair.
My prediction: we're going to be in a transition period for the next twenty years. I predict Saudis have a lot more oil than people give them credit for. Higher oil prices will increase investment, and the death of the SUV and other large higher performance cars will broaden the plateau. And a few supply shocks will depress demand as well. And all during that time period, doomers and peak oil moderators will sit on their butts mindless posturing as experts.
So that's my obnoxious post for today. I'm going out to do something real. I suggest everyone else do so as well. Forget about peak oil for today. Or better yet, if you are a mathematical scientific type, perhaps just thinking about going to college, start thinking about nanotechnology. Or getting a degree in mechanical engineering and physics. Be one of the people to actually be prepared to do something. That's a good project for you today.
And doomers: keep filling up those lifeboats. Life is so frightening--and you are so scared. I feel for you. You poor things. All wrapped fetal position like in the corner. So afraid of the world. Keep filling that life boat. Just in case.
PS: Can you imagine if the internet was around for doomers in the late 70s. Man oh man. They would have been dooming for the next 25 years. Pointlessly dooming away. Poor things. It must be tough going through life with the perspective of a doomer.
Posted: Wed Oct 05, 2005 11:51 am Post subject: Re: Hard core doomers -- lacking in imagination?
trespam wrote:
Here's a prediction. When Peak Oil REALLY becomes a problem, one that society is finally willing to face, it will no longer be populated with so many doomers and losers. Right now, it's just not the case. When the time is right, the Rupperts, the Kunstlers, the peak oil moderators (or most of them) and all the rest will be swept aside so people with real imaginations can deal with it.
Hi, Trespam! Ah, but I know that you do not include me amongst those lacking in imagination - for you know quite well that I've imagined a most delightful solution to the problem. It just so happens that you don't care for my particular methodology. For now, most agree with you. But I have high hopes that my perspective will win out in the end. _________________ Dieoff. Fun to watch. Better with hot buttered popcorn!
Posted: Wed Oct 05, 2005 11:56 am Post subject: Re: Hard core doomers -- lacking in imagination?
trespam wrote:
Or better yet, if you are a mathematical scientific type, perhaps just thinking about going to college, start thinking about nanotechnology. Or getting a degree in mechanical engineering and physics. Be one of the people to actually be prepared to do something.
technology does not = energy.
oil depletion is not a technology problem.
Posted: Wed Oct 05, 2005 1:30 pm Post subject: Re: Hard core doomers -- lacking in imagination?
trespam wrote:
It must be tough going through life with the perspective of a doomer.
No, I imagine that going through all your life as a doomer would be quite easy -- it's the way you've always been.
What's tough is being shown a set of circumstances that you see as being dire, urgent, critical, and needing immediate attention, understanding that your life, and everyone's around you, are dependent on the proper addressing of these circumstances, and to see that no addressing is taking place in any meaningful way. This leads to a profound sense of doom that, no, I haven't had all my life.
What I expect would be the toughest, though, is to go through life with blinders on, and to have your life suddenly and abruptly end as you splatter yourself against the wall you couldn't see coming.
Posted: Wed Oct 05, 2005 1:41 pm Post subject: Re: Hard core doomers -- lacking in imagination?
Simmons is less doomer now than he was 12 months ago.
October 2004
Quote:
This problem ranks alongside thermonuclear war
October 2005
Quote:
Ingenuity is the by-product of panic.
So what happened - did Simmons get dumber than your average PO.com doomer over the past 12 months - or did he just start exploring further outside his oil industry safe zone to see what might be possible?
--J
[Edit] Okay, I didn't actually mean to say that your average PO.com doomer is particularly dumb, that's just how it came out when making the comparitive statement... [/edit] _________________ Doomerosity now at 2 (occasionaly 3, was 4)
Currently (mostly) taking a break from posting at po.com. Don't trust the false prophets of doom - keep reading, keep learning, keep challenging your assum
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