Hoarding is exactly what the government is doing right now by filling the SPR, and frankly it's the best thing that could happen. It drives prices up. High prices encourage demand destruction. They also finance new well development. The hoarded oil gives us a buffer to fall back on once shortages become more prevalent. High prices are what we need in order to adapt to what's coming, and the sooner they happen, the better.
Joined: Aug 14, 2004 Posts: 2059 Location: San Diego, Ca.
Posted: Thu Sep 02, 2004 3:46 pm Post subject:
Quote:
but I think it shows the best way to survive bad times is to get out of the city.
I was waiting for you to say that.
I think the large cities will be a good "gauge" of how bad things are. Post-Peak when cities start to loot and riot because of energy shortages, it will be a signal that the S is about to hit the fan. That is the time to get serious and impliment plans for self suficiency. _________________ "Peak oil isn't more than an interesting industry factoid and doesn't have anything to do with the hysterics speculated on ad nauseum around here!" ReserveGrowthRulz
I dont think people will leave the city. I dont think they will realize soon enough that the situation is permanent. I don't think people may relate it with oil running out at all if we havea "overnight" scenario. People may think it's the "terrorists" and Uncle Sam will save them soon. And die thinking that...
Joined: May 26, 2004 Posts: 1188 Location: Zoorope
Posted: Fri Sep 03, 2004 4:22 pm Post subject:
mmmm....
We are forgetting something.
If people will care only about food, then there will be very little to worry about robberies. A villa with swimming pool and a Mercedes in the garage won't provide more food than a hut, and the thieves will learn it very fast. There will be no use to go around trying to kill people in their own houses, in order to steal... what? A videocamera nobody cares about? Food, which nobody has? Unless you intend to eat humans, there's no place to go and robber.
Or better: thieves will try to assult government rationing stores. Military food reserves. Govt trucks or train. Wherever they know to find a "lot" of food. They won't risk their lives to come to your house, engage in fireshoots, maybe die to steal two nuts.
Farms will be in bigger danger than us stupid city people with nothing to share. _________________ **no english mothertongue**
--------
Objects in the rear view mirror
are closer than they appear.
Joined: Aug 27, 2004 Posts: 162 Location: missouri
Posted: Sat Sep 04, 2004 8:36 am Post subject:
Quote:
Farms will be in bigger danger than us stupid city people with nothing to share.
Um, I'm sitting here in the country trying to imagine how the farmers could even continue to farm without oil. Right now they are harvesting corn with their huge combines, then putting it in a semi sized truck and driving it over to these huge grain bins which blow heat in to dry the corn. If they didn't do that, it would mold, then rot. Then if somone attacked them and took it away from them (assuming that it was available), would they even know what to do with it?
Another thing--chickens. Lots of them are raised around here, and there is a Tyson plant nearby. Massive amounts of energy are used to raise birds this intensively. And we won't even go into the subject of big hog farms. If the oil suddenly dried up, the pigs would all die within a few days.
The farmers no longer have the skills to farm the old fashioned way, with mixed crops and farm animals. The last generation that farmed that way is dying out-now. My grandmother remembers the depression very well--she was a teen--but she is 88 now. And yes, I am learning all I can from her!
Joined: Aug 14, 2004 Posts: 2059 Location: San Diego, Ca.
Posted: Sat Sep 04, 2004 5:12 pm Post subject:
Barbara, I partially agree with your post. Eventually, when most big cites are starving, SUVs and video cameras won't matter. Some people will be stealing (trying to steal, rob, etc.) resources. Food, clothing, water, shelter. Some will trade items. Others will simply scavenge and wait to die from thirst and starvation.
Quote:
They won't risk their lives to come to your house, engage in fireshoots, maybe die to steal two nuts.
This is a rational statement that will not hold up in irrational times. Assuming government protection breaks down (i.e. local police), someone may assault, rob, or kill you for the shoes on your feet or the two nuts in your pocket.
For you optimists out there: I am not saying everyone will become a "predator" type person. However, one or two predators who are not afraid to kill could reek havoc in a post decline city. _________________ "Peak oil isn't more than an interesting industry factoid and doesn't have anything to do with the hysterics speculated on ad nauseum around here!" ReserveGrowthRulz
Joined: Aug 27, 2004 Posts: 162 Location: missouri
Posted: Sun Sep 05, 2004 5:27 am Post subject:
Quote:
Preparing for the future is one thing, but since that would involve getting out of cities, then what to do if you're in one seems to be a rather irrelevant question to me. Survival in rural areas is what I believe should be the key concern.
Well, you folks are all way ahead of the game, because you all are aware of what futures could play out. But don't wait to buy land--that's the main thing. And I must tell you some discouraging things. Really good farmland goes for $3000 per acre or more. If you buy it cheaper you could run into problems growing stuff, and it takes several years to learn to garden, depending on your learning curve. Lots of people dream of going to live in the Ozarks because it's beautiful, and they imagine hidin' in them thar hills, but the soil is pure rocky, and though it can built up with mulch over time, and can make lovely gardens, not too many people grow row crops over there(maybe none). Another thing--I'd sure hate to be running around in the woods trying to survive, with several thousand other inexperienced city people with guns--if you know what I mean.
But here is a thought--no one has mentioned small towns. There are many small towns all over America, and I assume, in Europe. Many of them have lost population, with the earlier exodus to the cities, and would welcome newcomers with open arms. There they are--sitting right smack in the middle of all that farmland, and many have large yards, and the neighbors would be able to band together in case of marauding brigands. To me, it would be the best of all possible worlds. It goes without saying though, that the community would need to be chosen with care--some of the small towns have all the big city problems, and none of the advantages. Lots have drug problems and gang problems, and lots around here have boarded up downtown areas with huge Walmarts sitting on the outskirts of town. Quite a few have dominant religious views that you may have problems living with. On the other hand, they are full of older folks who still remember the old ways-somewhat. And I have seen more vegetable gardens in the small towns than anywhere else. The prices for housing are really decent, compared to the city, and compared to the country for that matter. Housing is cheap here, it's the land that will cost you.
Joined: Aug 27, 2004 Posts: 162 Location: missouri
Posted: Sun Sep 05, 2004 5:34 am Post subject:
Quote:
I would recommend getting away from population centers. Stealthiness will be your friend.
And yes, Jato, I would definitely get the hell out of San Diego, well ahead of the rush. A small town in Iowa might culture shock you, but it will be a nice sane place to be when tshtf!
Joined: Aug 27, 2004 Posts: 162 Location: missouri
Posted: Sun Sep 05, 2004 8:24 pm Post subject:
Well, here in the midwest, I feel pretty safe, and though we can't know what to expect in the future, I'd say we'll feel the pinch less than either coast. I mean, people drive to get their mail with golf carts around here. Most small non glitzy towns can say the same, probably. There are more jobs than most people imagine in the rural areas, but the money may not sound too great. Of course, expenses are lower too.
Joined: Aug 25, 2004 Posts: 85 Location: West Coast, USA
Posted: Sun Sep 05, 2004 11:13 pm Post subject:
I'm also looking for arable land far from cities. Small towns are a good idea, especially if they were once thriving centers for farmers and homesteaders, indicating the land might sustain larger populations once again.
It is very useful to have community: to share the load of labor, specialize tasks among members of the community, share the wealth, and protect what is the group has worked for. But how much community should we have? No small community can work in isolation. We'll still need toilet paper, soap, housing and farm construction materials, propane, and various sundry parts mostly made in China these days. These items will be a lot more expensive post-peak, but especially so for those in remote small towns, making me think twice about whether this is a viable strategy. Even though this extra effort could be for naught if some marauding thugs discover your little utopia, I expect you'll still stand a better chance of defending yourself, and certainly of not being discovered, by building in a remote area.
Cities allow many benefits--cheaper access to a variety of goods and services, specialization that allows careers far removed from subsistence farming--but the minute a city makes serious steps towards being liveable post-peak, all the newly disenfranchised will flock there and make it unliveable again. Unless, of course, the city's borders are closed to all who can't prove they would be an asset to the community. Cities are probably not defendable in the short term, and so most of the wealth will be sucked out of them. The only borders that can readily be defended are national borders, and I think we'll all suffer for our countrymen's lack of preparedness, perhaps through socialistic redistribution of wealth, but I digress...
Joined: Aug 25, 2004 Posts: 85 Location: West Coast, USA
Posted: Sun Sep 05, 2004 11:48 pm Post subject:
Now that I think about it, some cities are already becoming fortresses in a sense with gated communities and good-paying jobs available mostly to the establishment. I wonder how sustainable this would be for the rich, who could afford lots of security guards for their food supply and gated communities. Just an idle thought, though...I'm not rich, and if things get this bad, I won't be anywhere near a city...
I suppose I take not living in the cities for granted, having never stayed for any great amount of time in one. Having spent highschool boarding (the bus journey isn't a practicle option) I take living isolated far from anywhere as the normal lifestyle. Then again, I take cattle grazing outside my window (as a cheeky deer is doing right now) as standard. _________________ There'll be war, there'll be peace
But one day all things shall cease
All the iron turned to rust
All the proud men turned to dust
So all things time will mend
So this song will end
Joined: Aug 27, 2004 Posts: 162 Location: missouri
Posted: Mon Sep 06, 2004 9:15 pm Post subject:
You know, Mikela, when I think of this whole city, small town, country debate, I must consider history. A city like NY or LA would have been impossible before cheap oil. Very large cities would have been unlivable in olden times because of issues like sanitation, and bringing in food from the farms. These could again become issues.
As for rural life, people tended to band together in villages for mutual safety, then head out into the countryside to farm, and raise food for the village. The village could support a certain number of craftsmen, and a certain number of warriors, and I don't know for sure, but I"m guessing they kept a pretty tight ratio. And if they felt especially threatened, they would put a wall around that village. Also, the houses were pretty close together--nothing like a modern suburban neighborhood, or even a modern small town.
I live in the country, not in a small town, and I can't imagine there is much of anywhere that you could go, and build a homestead, and not get discovered eventually. And it gets pretty lonesome around here sometimes, so we jump in the car and go somewhere when it gets too quiet around here. Pioneer women used to commit suicide sometimes because of the loneliness--so don't negate that a factor when choosing your future abode.
Posted: Fri Sep 10, 2004 3:17 pm Post subject: The First few weeks of PO
I think there might be a short term benefit to those of us who understand the concept of a peak. When oil production/world economy/civilization peaks, take on a lot of debt. Buy every needed for survival. When the bill comes, you will be on a farm out in Montana. The creditors won't have the resources to find you and make you pay.
Word of caution, if you time the peak incorrectly...It's not going to be pretty.
The current, and legal , thing to do is buy gold. Keep it in your house/apartment/bunker. When the end comes, you and you alone will have a way of buying food.
What happens when gold is no longer a useful currency? Or the better question, what happens when there is no food to buy? I don't know. I don't own a gun yet and when there is no food to buy, there won't be any food to steal. Hunting and gathering looks like a good option for survival. I wonder what pine trees taste like...
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, thing to do is buy gold. Keep it in your house/apartment/bunker. When the end comes, you and you alone will have a way of buying food.
