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weirdo27
Tar Sands
Joined: Sep 01, 2005
Posts: 61
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 Posted: Tue Sep 19, 2006 12:34 am Post subject: Re: the effects of peak oil wont be noticed right away |
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| i was thinking about doing a search but i didn't imagine this topic being talked about before. Maybe a mod should delete this thread than. |
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galacticsurfer
Heavy Crude
Joined: Nov 09, 2005
Posts: 185
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| Posted: Tue Sep 19, 2006 8:51 am Post subject: Re: the effects of peak oil wont be noticed right away |
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About the idea that things that are unnecessary get eliminated on the way down reminds me of an article I read that said the economists of the day in 1929 believed according to the standard wisdom of the day that a depression(as it was called then, recession was not a word) was necessary to clean out the economy of excess investment so that only that was left was what was necessary. So at the bottom of the trough then people would reinvest the excess and now cheap capital in other things which would be more useful. Obviously this idea din't work very well then and job programs did not work either, only total war mobilization worked.
However as the Great Depression was a bubble bursting economic event and not due to real shortages like Peak Oil induced depression the idea of reinvesting or of excess capital being redirected is not legitimate.
Essentially the depression was ended by just pumping oil and using other energy sources(coal,etc.) and minerals to employ people building weapons and ships to transport soldiers to Europe and Asia. They recognized a need externally and had the resources. The ending of the depression itself was a secondary consideration.
As people will have no resources left to wage a war in a PO depression regardless of enemy attack then there will only be "recovery" at a lower level of civilization and consumption. Sustainable life will mean less people and less consumption per person. Until it is stable it will not stop being reduced. Rome went from 1 million people to 40,000 in several hundred years.
Perhaps Arabs or Russians with more oil or USA using Coal to Liquid or using crop land for ethanol will be able to actually fight a war or continue such a lifestyle as today until like in the debt situation in the current US bubble economy it will just not be feasible anymore.
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EnergyUnlimited
Fusion
Joined: May 15, 2006
Posts: 3109
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| Posted: Tue Sep 19, 2006 12:33 pm Post subject: Re: the effects of peak oil wont be noticed right away |
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| galacticsurfer wrote: |
As people will have no resources left to wage a war in a PO depression regardless of enemy attack then there will only be "recovery" at a lower level of civilization and consumption. Sustainable life will mean less people and less consumption per person. Until it is stable it will not stop being reduced. Rome went from 1 million people to 40,000 in several hundred years.
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Disagree.
There will be always resources to wage a war by the US in forseable future.
Any remining oil (Texas, Alaska, GoM), tar sands, Colorado shale, any biofuels, coal to liquids etc will be used by military if necessary.
There are also sufficient stockpiles of uranium/plutonium to make more and more nukes, if necessary.
It is CIVILIAN use, what will be affected most.
Military is safe for a century at least. |
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Ludi
NeoMaster
Joined: Dec 27, 2004
Posts: 12473
Location: zombie horde wonderland
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| Posted: Tue Sep 19, 2006 3:09 pm Post subject: Re: the effects of peak oil wont be noticed right away |
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| weirdo27 wrote: | | I was reading some articles that the effects of declining oil production wont be devistating right away mostly due to the reason we have so much room to cut waste. This might cost jobs but atleast we will still have a lifestyle, and food and all that fun stuff. Than as we head farther down than things begin to get worse and worse. |
How will you have food and a "lifestyle" and fun stuff without a job?
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Fergus
Heavy Crude
Joined: Jun 13, 2006
Posts: 409
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| Posted: Tue Sep 19, 2006 3:59 pm Post subject: Re: the effects of peak oil wont be noticed right away |
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| Ludi wrote: | | weirdo27 wrote: | | I was reading some articles that the effects of declining oil production wont be devistating right away mostly due to the reason we have so much room to cut waste. This might cost jobs but atleast we will still have a lifestyle, and food and all that fun stuff. Than as we head farther down than things begin to get worse and worse. |
How will you have food and a "lifestyle" and fun stuff without a job? |
Yep. my thoughts exactely. |
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rogerhb
Master
Joined: Sep 06, 2004
Posts: 5315
Location: Smalltown New Zealand
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| Posted: Tue Sep 19, 2006 5:14 pm Post subject: Re: the effects of peak oil wont be noticed right away |
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| Ludi wrote: | | How will you have food and a "lifestyle" and fun stuff without a job? |
(a) your lifestyle will be what ever you do
(b) have fun finding food
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"Complex problems have simple, easy to understand, wrong answers." - Henry Louis Mencken |
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ohanian
Light Sweet Crude
Joined: Oct 17, 2004
Posts: 1084
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| Posted: Tue Sep 19, 2006 7:24 pm Post subject: Re: the effects of peak oil wont be noticed right away |
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| Ludi wrote: | | weirdo27 wrote: | | I was reading some articles that the effects of declining oil production wont be devistating right away mostly due to the reason we have so much room to cut waste. This might cost jobs but atleast we will still have a lifestyle, and food and all that fun stuff. Than as we head farther down than things begin to get worse and worse. |
How will you have food and a "lifestyle" and fun stuff without a job? |
Easy! Join the US military.
You will have food.
You will have a "lifestyle"
And you will have fun playing "call of duty" all day long in the Middle East. |
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MonteQuest
Elite
Joined: Sep 06, 2004
Posts: 13460
Location: Sedona, Arizona
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| Posted: Tue Sep 19, 2006 9:00 pm Post subject: Re: the effects of peak oil wont be noticed right away |
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| weirdo27 wrote: | | i was thinking about doing a search but i didn't imagine this topic being talked about before. Maybe a mod should delete this thread than. |
No, we will just merge it with an already current front page topic.
_________________
A Saudi saying, "My father rode a camel. I drive a car. My son flies a jet-plane. His son will ride a camel."
Live in Arizona? Check out: http://sustainablearizona.org and read my blog. |
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weirdo27
Tar Sands
Joined: Sep 01, 2005
Posts: 61
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| Posted: Tue Sep 19, 2006 10:21 pm Post subject: Re: Solving Oil Depletion; Solutions in Isolation |
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| The goverment cant just starve the population with 50% of people cant buy food. They will have to do a emergency food act thing or something. |
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Doly
Expert
Joined: Dec 03, 2004
Posts: 4034
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| Posted: Wed Sep 20, 2006 4:21 am Post subject: Re: Solving Oil Depletion; Solutions in Isolation |
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| weirdo27 wrote: | | The goverment cant just starve the population with 50% of people cant buy food. They will have to do a emergency food act thing or something. |
If things came to that, they would start rationing. But we are very, very far from that situation. |
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EnergyUnlimited
Fusion
Joined: May 15, 2006
Posts: 3109
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| Posted: Wed Sep 20, 2006 6:05 am Post subject: Re: Solving Oil Depletion; Solutions in Isolation |
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| Doly wrote: | | weirdo27 wrote: | | The goverment cant just starve the population with 50% of people cant buy food. They will have to do a emergency food act thing or something. |
If things came to that, they would start rationing. But we are very, very far from that situation. |
Black market will take care of rationing. |
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JustinFrankl
Intermediate Crude
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Joined: Aug 22, 2005
Posts: 657
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| Posted: Wed Sep 20, 2006 10:08 am Post subject: Re: Solving Oil Depletion; Solutions in Isolation |
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| EnergyUnlimited wrote: | | Doly wrote: | | weirdo27 wrote: | | The goverment cant just starve the population with 50% of people cant buy food. They will have to do a emergency food act thing or something. |
If things came to that, they would start rationing. But we are very, very far from that situation. |
Black market will take care of rationing. |
How, exactly, would a black market take care of rationing?
I would suggest that black markets have, at their base, a source of cheap energy with which to supply their product. Domesticated animals, slaves, fossil fuels, or technology which enables access to, use of, or control of these resources. Which are then used to supply the black market customers with food, alcohol, heroin, state secrets, or more animals/slaves/fuels.
But a decline in the primary energy that still enables these markets, fossil fuels, would mean diminished ability of the black market to efficiently supply its customers with contraband.
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"We have seen the enemy, and he is us." -- Walt Kelly |
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Ludi
NeoMaster
Joined: Dec 27, 2004
Posts: 12473
Location: zombie horde wonderland
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| Posted: Wed Sep 20, 2006 1:22 pm Post subject: Re: the effects of peak oil wont be noticed right away |
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| ohanian wrote: | | Ludi wrote: | | weirdo27 wrote: | | I was reading some articles that the effects of declining oil production wont be devistating right away mostly due to the reason we have so much room to cut waste. This might cost jobs but atleast we will still have a lifestyle, and food and all that fun stuff. Than as we head farther down than things begin to get worse and worse. |
How will you have food and a "lifestyle" and fun stuff without a job? |
Easy! Join the US military.
You will have food.
You will have a "lifestyle"
And you will have fun playing "call of duty" all day long in the Middle East. |
Many people (such as myself) don't (and will never) qualify for the military.
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No original ideas are contained in this post. |
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MonteQuest
Elite
Joined: Sep 06, 2004
Posts: 13460
Location: Sedona, Arizona
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| Posted: Mon Jun 23, 2008 8:58 am Post subject: Re: Solving Oil Depletion; Solutions in Isolation |
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Reality for the newbies.
_________________
A Saudi saying, "My father rode a camel. I drive a car. My son flies a jet-plane. His son will ride a camel."
Live in Arizona? Check out: http://sustainablearizona.org and read my blog. |
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MonteQuest
Elite
Joined: Sep 06, 2004
Posts: 13460
Location: Sedona, Arizona
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| Posted: Tue Jul 08, 2008 5:54 pm Post subject: Re: Solving Oil Depletion; Solutions in Isolation |
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For all those who say I never post about solutions.
_________________
A Saudi saying, "My father rode a camel. I drive a car. My son flies a jet-plane. His son will ride a camel."
Live in Arizona? Check out: http://sustainablearizona.org and read my blog. |
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