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Brazil's giant offshore oil discoveries
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Flow
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Joined: Nov 05, 2005
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PostPosted: Mon Nov 07, 2005 12:28 pm    Post subject: Brazil's giant offshore oil discoveries Add User to Ignore List Reply with quote

http://www.worldnetdaily.com/news/article.asp?ARTICLE_ID=47265

Nov 7, 2005 (today)

Excerpts from the article......

"A key argument of "Peak-Oil" and "Fossil-Fuel" theorists is no new giant oilfield discoveries have been made in recent years."

"The Barracuda and Caratingua proven oil reserves are estimated at 1.229 billion barrels. Together they are expected to produce 773 million barrels of oil by 2025."

>None of this will impress peak-oil or fossil-fuel theorists, who expectedly will argue that the Brazil's offshore oil fields, regardless how large they might be, are doomed to deplete sooner or later. If giant oil fields can be found 50 miles offshore Brazil, how many more giant offshore oil fields remain to be discovered?"

---------------------------------------

My favorite line of the whole article "How many more giant offshore oil fields remain to be discovered?" Granted, we will need about 720 billion barrels until 2025 but like they say in the article "How many more giant offshore oil fields remain to be discovered (worldwide)?"
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Flow
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PostPosted: Mon Nov 07, 2005 12:40 pm    Post subject: Re: Brazil's giant offshore oil discoveries Add User to Ignore List Reply with quote

As a related side note, of the top 50 countries that produce oil, with regards to the ones that are in decline, they average about 571,000 barrels a day decline (each year) total.

Expanding that out until 2025, we need to come up with about 4.3 billion barrels just to break even from these wells in decline (assuming their decline continues at the rate of 2.5% decline they have demonstrated since 1997).

So this new discovery alone (produce 773 million barrels by 2025) accounts for almost half of the required fuel to make up for the wells in decline.

This of course assumes that no other wells go into decline, but I am stuck on the statement "If giant oil fields can be found 50 miles offshore Brazil, how many more giant offshore oil fields remain to be discovered?" (which also could be asked worldwide).
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FoxV
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PostPosted: Mon Nov 07, 2005 1:19 pm    Post subject: Re: Brazil's giant offshore oil discoveries Add User to Ignore List Reply with quote

according to ASPO's model for new discoveries, we're due to discover about 10Bbrls (approximately) in new fields every year for a few years yet with about 130B in total still out there

so in answer to your question I guess between now and 2025 there are about 70 of these "Giant" oil fields still to be found

btw for 2003, 2004 we only found half the predicted amount
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pstarr
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PostPosted: Mon Nov 07, 2005 1:41 pm    Post subject: Re: Brazil's giant offshore oil discoveries Add User to Ignore List Reply with quote

1.229 billion barrels is 17 days of current consumption. whoopee
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Geology_Guy
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PostPosted: Mon Nov 07, 2005 1:43 pm    Post subject: Re: Brazil's giant offshore oil discoveries Add User to Ignore List Reply with quote

The geology is this article is off the wall ! The Oligocene was about 38 million to 23 million years ago. The Miocene was about 23 million to 5 million years ago. Where he gets 24,000 years ago I have no idea. Also he says the rocks are full of "benthic foraminifera" which are micro-fossils of small shelled animals and then he says the rocks contained no animal fossils!
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Leanan
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PostPosted: Mon Nov 07, 2005 1:58 pm    Post subject: Re: Brazil's giant offshore oil discoveries Add User to Ignore List Reply with quote

It's WND. Hey, at least he admits there were such things as dinosaurs, and that the earth is more than a few thousand years old. Razz
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bobcousins
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PostPosted: Mon Nov 07, 2005 2:02 pm    Post subject: Re: Brazil's giant offshore oil discoveries Add User to Ignore List Reply with quote

Flow wrote:
Expanding that out until 2025, we need to come up with about 4.3 billion barrels just to break even from these wells in decline (assuming their decline continues at the rate of 2.5% decline they have demonstrated since 1997).

So this new discovery alone (produce 773 million barrels by 2025) accounts for almost half of the required fuel to make up for the wells in decline.


I remain baffled by your calculations. The rate of depletion of known reserves is 30 billion barrels a year. That is the amount we need to replace. You are only counting decline rate of of production, which is a rate of a rate.

As for the article, it is written by Jerome Corsi who believes in abiotic oil. That should be enough to tell you that the article is probably BS, and it is. He repeats the canard about oil from dinosaurs, that is a myth, so he is attacking a strawman. He also misrepresents the key argument of PO - the key argument is that discoveries peaked 40 years ago and since then have declined.
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Clouseau2
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PostPosted: Mon Nov 07, 2005 2:30 pm    Post subject: Re: Brazil's giant offshore oil discoveries Add User to Ignore List Reply with quote

No one caught the fact that the word "ethanol" was conspicuously absent from the article?
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PeakOiler
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PostPosted: Mon Nov 07, 2005 6:51 pm    Post subject: Re: Brazil's giant offshore oil discoveries Add User to Ignore List Reply with quote

I just reviewed ASPO's Newsletter #26 which gives the Brasil country assessment. According to ASPO's "Future Discoveries" estimate, Brasil still needs to find 2.6 Gb more deepwater oil.

http://www.peakoil.ie/newsletters
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Antimatter
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PostPosted: Mon Nov 07, 2005 8:27 pm    Post subject: Re: Brazil's giant offshore oil discoveries Add User to Ignore List Reply with quote

Quote:
While the geology suggests the Campos Basin oil-rich deposits formed when the sea level was lower than today, the deposits suggest that the area was most probably still underwater when the sand and mud deposits flowed into the area.


Congratulations!

He is still stuck on the idea that oil comes from dinosaurs and plant matter rather than algae. At least he got the age of the mesozoic about right, but it's obvious when a non-geologist tries to talk about geology. And I just love the image from the Aquatica screensaver!
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Hegel
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PostPosted: Mon Nov 07, 2005 10:09 pm    Post subject: Re: Brazil's giant offshore oil discoveries Add User to Ignore List Reply with quote

Mr. Corsi and his publications are for the birds.
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ivuernis
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PostPosted: Wed Nov 09, 2005 7:38 am    Post subject: Re: Brazil's giant offshore oil discoveries Add User to Ignore List Reply with quote

pstarr wrote:
1.229 billion barrels is 17 days of current consumption. whoopee


Or, to put it another way Ghawar produces more in one year than both Barracuda and Caratingua together will probably produce in their whole lifetime.

In current discovery terms they may be big, but they are only big fish in a small pond, and all the REALLY big fish are already half-eaten.
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Leanan
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PostPosted: Thu Nov 10, 2005 12:04 pm    Post subject: Re: Brazil's giant offshore oil discoveries Add User to Ignore List Reply with quote

He's got another one today. This one's even funnier:

Thunder Horse in the Gulf

Thunder Horse proves that "fossil-fuel theorists" are wrong. Because dinosaurs couldn't have lived that deep underwater. Rolling Eyes
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UncoveringTruths
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PostPosted: Thu Nov 10, 2005 12:15 pm    Post subject: Re: Brazil's giant offshore oil discoveries Add User to Ignore List Reply with quote

When is that dumb ass Jerome Corsi going to quit typing.

Quote:
The Thunder Horse Oil Field located in the Mississippi Canyon Block about 125 miles southeast of New Orleans in the Gulf of Mexico promises to be the first field in the Gulf to produce 1 million barrels of oil a day by 2007.


Thunder Horse in the Gulf

Quote:
This field complex is located approximately 150 miles southeast of New Orleans, Louisiana, in the US Gulf of Mexico. The water depth in the relevant area varies between 5,700 and 6,500 feet (1,740 and 1980 m). The production facilities are designed for an annualized average throughput rate of 250,000 BPD of oil and 250 MMSCFD of gas. The drilling facilities are designed for operations down to 30,000 feet (9,140 m) in 6,300 feet (1,920 m) water depth.


BP Thunderhorse
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peripato
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PostPosted: Thu Nov 10, 2005 4:19 pm    Post subject: Re: Brazil's giant offshore oil discoveries Add User to Ignore List Reply with quote

The fields referred to in that so-called article were not "just found" recently except perhaps by you and that numbnut Corsi, and are due to peak the day after tomorrow;

"Barracuda was discovered in April 1989. It holds 867 million barrels of oil with 10.7 billion cubic meters of gas. Its production will peak in 2006 at 150,000 boe/d...

Caratinga was discovered in 1994 and holds 362 million barrels of oil and 4 billion cubic meters of gas. The field will start producing in December 2004 with a peak production of 125,000 barrels of oil by 2006."

Trying doing some REAL research next time rather than just quoting the delusional rantings of another "oil is made from chocolate nougat" type whacko. Link
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