How then, do we move backwards? How does a society, with most of the people having no clue of future events, move from being dependent on a vast and intertwined network of goods and services produced by the indigenous people of whereever, to a local resource and renewable energy based society, and do so in the timeframe available (20-30 years using the most liberal extimates, 10-20 with resonable estimates, 5-10 with worst case scenarios), all the while prices on everything increasing, world politics getting more militaristic, governments continuously reducing civil liberties, shortages of goods on the market and weather patterns resembling bad Hollywood movies?
Posted: Mon Nov 21, 2005 10:00 pm Post subject: Peak Oil: The Tip of the Iceberg
Is peak oil the "tip of the iceberg?"
How many see peak oil as a symptom of a greater disease? The "tip of the iceberg" expression is derived from the fact that icebergs float because the density of ice is lower than that of seawater. The ratio of these densities tells us that 7/8 of the iceberg's mass must be below water.
The mass below the surface of peak oil is the expectations of infinite growth in a finite world. Driving this false premise is a debt-based monetary system that services past debt only with future growth. Changing the cultural direction and asset inertia behind this is tantamount to trying to turn the Titanic on a dime. Never happen; no matter how hard you try.
So, the transition we need to do is not from fossil fuels to renewables, but from an infinite growth mindset to one of sustainability based upon the received solar flux and the earth’s ability to absorb our impact through the environmental sinks. We are already burdened with un-repayable debt, unbridled population growth, rampant environmental toxicity, increasing loss of biodiversity, scarcity of resources, and alarming reports of increased global warming; all consequences of our collective hubris. We need to address all of these issues, not just energy production.
On the other hand, how many see peak oil as just another problem to be solved by man’s ingenuity? His course is sound, he just needs a new energy source to “stay the course”. Tomorrow the stars with JD?
For those inclined to believe it is the latter seem to propose solutions that are “conserve, transition, and continue to grow”.
One of our newest members recently asked:
thuja wrote:
In terms of those who believe we can "switch and grow", I would just ask, until when? The potable water runs out? The uranium/coal runs out? Arable land to support growing population runs out?
On the other hand, if we realize, as many others have said before, that there are limits to growth, what kind of an economic can we develop that is based on sustainability? Interest/debt based is impossible, so we must look to other examples.
We all know that, ultimately, there are limits to growth. Are we so myopic as to not see the wall ahead, if not for us, for our descendants?
It has been man’s hubris to think he need not heed the ecological limits that has led him to this precipice.
Do we still insist the “law of the minimum” does not apply; that we are “above nature”?
Do we really believe we can make more land, more water, and more air?
And as Aaron pointed out in his blog:
Aaron wrote:
3 1/2 % growth per year means the original quantity doubles in 20 years.
Is there anyone left who thinks that by 2025 our world will be consuming 170 million barrels of oil per day?
... or even 100 MBPD?
We have reached the limits of our most productive source of energy.
The black ceiling.
How long can man continue to plod aimlessly ahead into the abyss? We went through the first half of the oil in 125 years; according to Chevron, we will go through the other half in 30. Will history paint that as the great reign of this “modern day Rome” before the fall? History is replete with the carcasses of other hubris cultures.
Seems this “transition and grow” mindset has only the near-term future in mind.
In my opinion, any proposed solutions to the peak oil issue must address the following criteria to be viable long-term solutions.
1. They must address population growth.
2. They must address the global warming issue.
3. They must address the negative consequences of conservation efforts on the economy and efficiency gains increasing consumption.
4. They must address the economic issues of a no-growth economy and past debt.
5. They must be sustainable/ renewable and the least toxic to the environment.
6. And probably most important, they must be global in perspective.
Only a powerdown embraces and addresses these issues on a long-term sustainable basis.
Anything else just pushes the day of reckoning into the future and makes the cliff steeper, unless you continue to believe there are no limits.
So, do we continue to roll over the debt until we are bankrupt or do we cut up the credit cards?
It will be a short party for mankind if he chooses the former.
Doesn’t it seem odd to you that we have gone through most of our “stash” of energy in just over 100 years?
But what a party, eh? _________________ A Saudi saying, "My father rode a camel. I drive a car. My son flies a jet-plane. His son will ride a camel."
Live in Arizona? Check out: http://sustainablearizona.org and read my blog.
Posted: Tue Nov 22, 2005 12:06 am Post subject: Re: Peak Oil: The Tip of the Iceberg
Quote:
Anything else just pushes the day of reckoning into the future and makes the cliff steeper, unless you continue to believe there are no limits.
Same old tired rehashed crap from montequest.
There are limits, but the time horizon for discussing them is so far in the future its not even worth talking about it in the context of oil.
After humanity starts consuming the 10^26 watts of solar flux maybe it becomes an interesting discussion. We arent even consuming the smallest percentage of the 10^16 that falls on Earth yet.
Apparently most here think that the Kardashev scale is inapplicable to humanity because we're little better than animals.
Posted: Tue Nov 22, 2005 12:12 am Post subject: Re: Peak Oil: The Tip of the Iceberg
Dezakin wrote:
Same old tired rehashed crap from montequest.
Same old bitterness and personal attacks from Dezakin. _________________ A Saudi saying, "My father rode a camel. I drive a car. My son flies a jet-plane. His son will ride a camel."
Live in Arizona? Check out: http://sustainablearizona.org and read my blog.
Joined: Aug 14, 2004 Posts: 2063 Location: San Diego, Ca.
Posted: Tue Nov 22, 2005 12:40 am Post subject: Re: Peak Oil: The Tip of the Iceberg
Until humans can live peacefully with one another and stop multiplying like virus, all of the other science fiction fantasy will never happen (mirrors in space, fusion, googlegigawatts of solar panels, terra-forming, warp speed, improbability drive, time travel, etc.) It is quite easy to see that people will continue to war with each other and multiply.
I am convinced that we will soon hit our limit and experience a of die-off. I suspect the die-off will be caused by our fellow man in the form of resource conflict/war/control. If by some miracle we behave ourselves then resource depletion will take care of our bloated population.
I give credit to JohnDenver for dreaming up a prosperous future for humanity. But our past and present dictate our future behavior. Just this last century, in the continent of Europe, millions of humans murdered each other. This century, the stage is set for even more carnage.
The 21st century will see the fall of man, but not the extinction. _________________ "Peak oil isn't more than an interesting industry factoid and doesn't have anything to do with the hysterics speculated on ad nauseum around here!" ReserveGrowthRulz
Posted: Tue Nov 22, 2005 12:48 am Post subject: Re: Peak Oil: The Tip of the Iceberg
But its all the same. Its a meandering diatribe of the whole of the Montequest position thats been stated over and over in every one of the universe according to Montequest threads.
Quote:
1. They must address population growth.
Nonsequiter. An issue that montequest claims is self correcting in one brutal fasion or another and those less doomerific claim corrects itself through societal advance. Starvation or civilized fertility reduction, either way its not as gloomy as soylent green paints it.
Quote:
2. They must address the global warming issue.
Real nonsequiter. Climate change may be a minor threat to the global economy in coastal regions, but barring sudden rapid change, a transient one.
Quote:
3. They must address the negative consequences of conservation efforts on the economy and efficiency gains increasing consumption.
Why? These are unknowable, and for all we know could accelerate economic growth by providing larger overall energy resources. The negative consequences are generally one shot infrastructure changes that generally increase total energy supplies avaliable anyways.
Quote:
4. They must address the economic issues of a no-growth economy and past debt.
Again assumes that the economy will stop growing, which hasnt been demonstrated. It has been demonstrated that we wont run out of nuclear fuels for 'quite some time' meaning at least ten thousand years.
Quote:
5. They must be sustainable/ renewable and the least toxic to the environment.
Why? Aesthetic reasons?
Quote:
6. And probably most important, they must be global in perspective.
Again thinking too small.
Why is space expansion impossible in montequests world? He claims not to be the mad-max variety doomer, so in his hypothetical powerdown world we never climb for the stars? In all the thousands of years that we'll continue to exist on earth?
How about this: How far on the Kardashev scale will humanity climb? We havent yet achieved type 1, but my contention is we'll get to at least type III if we dont get smashed by a giant asteroid in the next century.
Posted: Tue Nov 22, 2005 12:49 am Post subject: Re: Peak Oil: The Tip of the Iceberg
Next? _________________ A Saudi saying, "My father rode a camel. I drive a car. My son flies a jet-plane. His son will ride a camel."
Live in Arizona? Check out: http://sustainablearizona.org and read my blog.
Posted: Tue Nov 22, 2005 1:20 am Post subject: Re: Peak Oil: The Tip of the Iceberg
The Limits to Growth folks were right in 1972 and are even more right now. But no one will be convinced until after the crash. As long as the "demand destruction" is confined to places like Nicaragua, Zimbabwe, and Indonesia, the OECD nations can party on for a good while.
At the moment NZ is at the peak of prosperity. The currency is strong. Unemployment is 2%, home prices up over 15% since last year, shiny new homes and shopping centers are going up everywhere. My office mate can't wait to buy a V8 motorcar. Ninety five percent of the population here is not interested in tomorrow, they are enjoying today too much. _________________ "The world is changed... I feel it in the water... I feel it in the earth... I smell it in the air... Much that once was, is lost..." - Galadriel
Posted: Tue Nov 22, 2005 1:34 am Post subject: Re: Peak Oil: The Tip of the Iceberg
Hey, I've been thinking about this stuff for a long time, Monte, even before John Denver sang his songs about the Rockies.
We are going to have to go through something ... something that will shock humanity out of its complacency. Perhaps it means hitting the wall at full speed, and then hoping that the survivors will understand what they hit, and that they will learn from that experience to live life more simply, more nobley, more beautifully, and within the context of nature.
In the late '70s I had high hopes that Buddhist thought would come to North America, and we would learn how to conduct ourselves properly in the world.
Posted: Tue Nov 22, 2005 2:22 am Post subject: Re: Peak Oil: The Tip of the Iceberg
Quote:
Yes, its the tip of the iceberg of exponential growth.
Thats just curve fitting, but we dont have to worry about really running out untill we consume most of the energy raining down on us from the sun. For the earth alone thats 10^16th watts and we use barely 10^13th.
Quote:
If the oil wall is pushed back we will just smash into the potable water one first instead. Take your pick either way it won't be pretty.
Posted: Tue Nov 22, 2005 2:50 am Post subject: Re: Peak Oil: The Tip of the Iceberg
MonteQuest wrote:
It has been man’s hubris to think he need not heed the ecological limits that has led him to this precipice.
The downslope of hubberts peak will humble many people to the bone. It will shake them to the core. They will question everything they thought they knew. Many people's ego and identity will be shattered and in pieces. Some may never recover. Many will die.
What I love about nature it that it is warm and tender but at the same cruel and indifferent. It provides everything we need to live a happy healthy life, but doesn't give a flying poop what happens to us. We have gotten so far out of balance a correction is in order. It is just the way things work. Sorry, there's no space capsules waiting for a hasty escape. "You're runing and you're running and you're running away, but you can't run away from yourself." The tide ebbs and flows, our narcissism and arrogance will be rewarded with humility and suffering. Maybe some day we will find a middle ground?
I'm sick and disgusted at seeing every forest and green field around me bulldozed and paved over for condos and shopping malls. Endless growth is a terminal disease that ends in death. What will people eat? parking lots? Will they eat the composite siding off of their new condo?
You can't have your cake and destroy it too.
I was reading Jared's Diamonds Collapse last night. He was discussing being at the quarry on Easter Island where they made all the statues. Many statues stand half finished with tools scattered about the quarry. As if one day everyone just got up and walked off the job.
Systems breakdown does not follow a a smooth logarithmic curve. One day we might all be sitting back enjoying a cold one debating when and if the peak will occur. The next day we could wake up in a completely different world.
Joined: Dec 20, 2004 Posts: 890 Location: Scotland
Posted: Tue Nov 22, 2005 5:16 am Post subject: Re: Peak Oil: The Tip of the Iceberg
no idea. however, i do not believe in die-off at all or in the olduvai theory etc.
and wishing for the whole population of the world to suddenly decide to abandon economic growth is insane. that cant and wont ever happen.
population growth - its so ironic when people talk about this being the problem, even though they would likely never have existed if their policies were already in place. as usual its - 'other people need to be culled - leaving more of the pie for the enlightened ones such as me who will of course be spared because we are too valuable'.
the human race will be extinct at some point, so what is the point in trying to preserve things? and anyway, the earth is only in a transient period at the moment - all species will be lost from earth in a billion years or so when the moon recedes and the earth starts to tilt violently on its axis, plus there's asteroids, etc. and the sun eventually engulfing us. we're Fark either way, and everybody is going to die.
Joined: Dec 27, 2004 Posts: 11857 Location: zombie horde wonderland
Posted: Tue Nov 22, 2005 5:31 am Post subject: Re: Peak Oil: The Tip of the Iceberg
linlithgowoil, you're going to die some day, so why bother trying to be healthy and staying alive today? Why not just curl up and die?
I haven't seen very many people advocate "culling" humans, so I don't know where that comes from in the discussion of overpopulation. Just a straw man I guess. _________________ "...powerdown so soft and fluffy you'll think you're living in a pillow..." - jboogy
Posted: Tue Nov 22, 2005 5:58 am Post subject: Re: Peak Oil: The Tip of the Iceberg
It's a pity to see these boards become a bilious dumping ground for discontent.
We got a problem on our hands, and all people know how to do is attack, attack, attack.
Gives ya great hope for the future, doesn't it? _________________ "By the time individuals discover that remaining resources will not be adequate for the next generation, the next generation has already been born. " David Price
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