For a minute there I thought I had to get off my couch, when all the while the fact is we don't have to do anything much but keep things afloat for just a few decades more! In fact, we'd best shut up about PO, because if our offspring finds out we knew about it all along, they'll turn and wring our necks come 2036!
Posted: Sun Nov 27, 2005 8:46 am Post subject: Conservation Debate
{split from Alternatives ready? by MQ}
My gut reaction is that we could easily recover from a 2% decline here in the US (assuming 2% less is available to us than in past years). Actually, it'd be about 5% less, assuming 3% historical growth in consumption that'd no longer be available. A little less driving, more programmable thermostats, ongoing switchover to more efficient vehicles, etc. would take care of it.
Of course, this wouldn't last very long! 2% rate will increase and unless every other country in the world did the same, it'll start getting nasty after a couple of years... not to mention the disparity between rich and poor.
Joined: Dec 27, 2004 Posts: 11991 Location: zombie horde wonderland
Posted: Sun Nov 27, 2005 11:16 am Post subject: Re: Alternatives ready?
Wildwell wrote:
Conservation is another useful tool for handling decline.
I agree. It's probably going to be my main tool, because I can't afford much in the way of alternatives... _________________ "...powerdown so soft and fluffy you'll think you're living in a pillow..." - jboogy
Posted: Sun Nov 27, 2005 1:04 pm Post subject: Re: Alternatives ready?
Wildwell wrote:
Conservation is another useful tool for handling decline.
Not if the conservation takes your job. _________________ A Saudi saying, "My father rode a camel. I drive a car. My son flies a jet-plane. His son will ride a camel."
Live in Arizona? Check out: http://sustainablearizona.org and read my blog.
Posted: Sun Nov 27, 2005 1:09 pm Post subject: Re: Alternatives ready?
Frank wrote:
My gut reaction is that we could easily recover from a 2% decline here in the US (assuming 2% less is available to us than in past years). Actually, it'd be about 5% less, assuming 3% historical growth in consumption that'd no longer be available. A little less driving, more programmable thermostats, ongoing switchover to more efficient vehicles, etc. would take care of it.
Of course, this wouldn't last very long! 2% rate will increase and unless every other country in the world did the same, it'll start getting nasty after a couple of years... not to mention the disparity between rich and poor.
Perhaps initially. No, it would not last long. Next year, you would have to do it all over again. And every year thereafter. Each year the pie will get smaller and your share will diminish in kind. _________________ A Saudi saying, "My father rode a camel. I drive a car. My son flies a jet-plane. His son will ride a camel."
Live in Arizona? Check out: http://sustainablearizona.org and read my blog.
Posted: Sun Nov 27, 2005 1:11 pm Post subject: Re: Alternatives ready?
Ludi wrote:
Wildwell wrote:
Conservation is another useful tool for handling decline.
I agree. It's probably going to be my main tool, because I can't afford much in the way of alternatives...
On an individual basis, it may mean everything. But "somebody" has to absorb the loss in revenue.
Will it be your job or business? Who decides?
But to answer your question:
How can an energy source that currently supplies .001% of our energy needs suddenly overnight take up a 5% shortfall?
It cannot. _________________ A Saudi saying, "My father rode a camel. I drive a car. My son flies a jet-plane. His son will ride a camel."
Live in Arizona? Check out: http://sustainablearizona.org and read my blog.
Posted: Sun Nov 27, 2005 1:47 pm Post subject: Re: Alternatives ready?
I can easily take it.
I don't know about everyone else. _________________ "By the time individuals discover that remaining resources will not be adequate for the next generation, the next generation has already been born. " David Price
Posted: Sun Nov 27, 2005 1:49 pm Post subject: Re: Alternatives ready?
MonteQuest wrote:
Wildwell wrote:
Conservation is another useful tool for handling decline.
Not if the conservation takes your job.
Don't be ridiculous, having 80mpg cars instead of 15mpg doesn't take anyone's jobs, apart from the companies behind the times and re-located to companies producing the more efficient cars. True, the oil companies might sell less oil, but then the price is higher and the workforce is redistributed to renewable energy etc. You need to produce evidence before making such outlandish claims.
Posted: Sun Nov 27, 2005 2:06 pm Post subject: Re: Alternatives ready?
Wildwell wrote:
MonteQuest wrote:
Wildwell wrote:
Conservation is another useful tool for handling decline.
Not if the conservation takes your job.
Don't be ridiculous, having 80mpg cars instead of 15mpg doesn't take anyone's jobs, apart from the companies behind the times and re-located to companies producing the more efficient cars. True, the oil companies might sell less oil, but then the price is higher and the workforce is redistributed to renewable energy etc. You need to produce evidence before making such outlandish claims.
How can anyway say that reduced sales=same bottom line?
15 mpg to 80mpg is an increase in "efficiency" which due to Jevon's Paradox leads to increased consumption. Conservation means not buying and using as much. Less GDP. Less growth. _________________ A Saudi saying, "My father rode a camel. I drive a car. My son flies a jet-plane. His son will ride a camel."
Live in Arizona? Check out: http://sustainablearizona.org and read my blog.
Last edited by MonteQuest on Sun Nov 27, 2005 2:15 pm; edited 1 time in total
Joined: Dec 27, 2004 Posts: 11991 Location: zombie horde wonderland
Posted: Sun Nov 27, 2005 2:08 pm Post subject: Re: Alternatives ready?
MonteQuest wrote:
Wildwell wrote:
MonteQuest wrote:
Wildwell wrote:
Conservation is another useful tool for handling decline.
Not if the conservation takes your job.
Don't be ridiculous, having 80mpg cars instead of 15mpg doesn't take anyone's jobs, apart from the companies behind the times and re-located to companies producing the more efficient cars. True, the oil companies might sell less oil, but then the price is higher and the workforce is redistributed to renewable energy etc. You need to produce evidence before making such outlandish claims.
How can anyway say that reduced sales=same bottom line?
Can the workforce be redistributed quickly, and by whom? Remember I'm talking about if peak is this year or in the next year, not years out with people planning ahead. Trying to look at this in the immediate future, or even the present. Ok?
As an example, the truckers who were put out of business by Katrina, let's pretend instead they were put out of business by peak oil - what alternative energy jobs would they be redistributed to, and by whom? _________________ "...powerdown so soft and fluffy you'll think you're living in a pillow..." - jboogy
Last edited by Ludi on Sun Nov 27, 2005 2:13 pm; edited 1 time in total
Posted: Sun Nov 27, 2005 2:16 pm Post subject: Re: Alternatives ready?
Ludi wrote:
Can the workforce be redistributed quickly, and by whom? Remember I'm talking about if peak is this year or in the next year, not years out with people planning ahead.
Doesn't matter. If you are still consuming 84 mbpd of oil to produce renewable energies, it is still demand exceeding supply when we go into decline.
You must achieve a net reduction, not just a shift in end use. _________________ A Saudi saying, "My father rode a camel. I drive a car. My son flies a jet-plane. His son will ride a camel."
Live in Arizona? Check out: http://sustainablearizona.org and read my blog.
Posted: Sun Nov 27, 2005 2:17 pm Post subject: Re: Alternatives ready?
someone wrote:
having 80mpg cars instead of 15mpg doesn't take anyone's jobs, apart from the companies behind the times and re-located to companies producing the more efficient cars. True, the oil companies might sell less oil, but then the price is higher and the workforce is redistributed to renewable energy etc.
To quote someone,
Quote:
You need to produce evidence before making such outlandish claims.
Monte wrote:
15 mpg to 80mpg is an increase in "efficiency" which due to Jevon's Paradox leads to increased consumption. Conservation means not buying and using as much. Less GDP. Less growth.
This could be the new Gospel: EFFICIENCY DOES NOT EQUAL CONSERVATION. _________________ "By the time individuals discover that remaining resources will not be adequate for the next generation, the next generation has already been born. " David Price
Last edited by killJOY on Sun Nov 27, 2005 2:21 pm; edited 1 time in total
Joined: Dec 27, 2004 Posts: 11991 Location: zombie horde wonderland
Posted: Sun Nov 27, 2005 2:25 pm Post subject: Re: Alternatives ready?
MonteQuest wrote:
Ludi wrote:
Can the workforce be redistributed quickly, and by whom? Remember I'm talking about if peak is this year or in the next year, not years out with people planning ahead.
Doesn't matter. If you are still consuming 84 mbpd of oil to produce renewable energies, it is still demand exceeding supply when we go into decline.
You must achieve a net reduction, not just a shift in end use.
Yes, I see that. To reduce need for energy, the workforce would need to do something which requires less energy. Is that possible? _________________ "...powerdown so soft and fluffy you'll think you're living in a pillow..." - jboogy
Posted: Sun Nov 27, 2005 2:26 pm Post subject: Re: Alternatives ready?
Wildwell wrote:
There's no scenario where the entire workforce needs to redistributed, it happens over time and has happened in the past. The largest redistribution would be a car company going bust (30,000 job losses at GM the other day) or an airline going bust, otherwise you are looking at a 30 year transition.
Name an energy transition in the past that went from a cheap, energy dense source to a less dense, more expensive form.
It has never happened in the past. _________________ A Saudi saying, "My father rode a camel. I drive a car. My son flies a jet-plane. His son will ride a camel."
Live in Arizona? Check out: http://sustainablearizona.org and read my blog.
Joined: Dec 27, 2004 Posts: 11991 Location: zombie horde wonderland
Posted: Sun Nov 27, 2005 2:27 pm Post subject: Re: Alternatives ready?
What alternative energy jobs are those GM workers being redistributed to? _________________ "...powerdown so soft and fluffy you'll think you're living in a pillow..." - jboogy
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