Like the illusion of Wall Street, with its vast and powerful investment banks, now shuttered, China too is an illusion perpetuated by the Globalists that gave us the 15,000 mile Caesar salad, poisoned cat food and lead based paint on babies' pacifiers. Like the illusion that money would come from thin air to always push housing prices higher, China has spent a generation pursuing its illusion. Pursuing an unattainable dream to be like the West, while 6000 years of its carefully shepherded top soil blows into the sea.
Posted: Tue Dec 27, 2005 6:47 pm Post subject: Re: The Worst Large European Nation "post peak oil"
[quote="Permanently_Baffled"]The stats back up what starvid is saying.
UK agriculture requires a poultry 1% of current natural gas consumption...[/quote
Oh my God, what an ignorant prat. Where do these people learn to be stupid. Grow that tree and swing from it, monkey....
The standard of education on these forums is hardly encouraging if we are to suppose these people are intelligent and independent minded.
A poultry 1%... craw! Eat paltry, it's healthy! Y'know!
Joined: Nov 24, 2005 Posts: 743 Location: The ever shrinking wilds of Norway
Posted: Wed Dec 28, 2005 1:38 am Post subject: Re: The Worst Large European Nation "post peak oil"
Starvid wrote:
I think if we could move food around in big enough volumes in the late 19th century (with steam trains) to avoid starvation, we can do it today.
Die-off is a silly theory which is backed by zero fact, atleast in the industrialized world. The Africans manage to starve themselves even if there is cheap abundant oil.
Remember that Europe is far denser populated than Africa. Well let's assume that we can feed the current population in a post-peak world, which I personally doesn't believe. In the recently passed agreement in WTO the EU commits themselves to ending the trade-barriers on 98% of the goods they produce by 2013. If peak oil doesn't put a halt to this before, most of Europe's agriculture will already be destroyed.
When the oil gets really expensive, many economies will not afford to buy almost any oil, further worsening the problem. Where are you going to get the infrastructure for food-redistribution in a short time (4-5 years)? Are farmers going to carry the on their backs to the train station? Horses doesn't breed that fast and you should keep in mind that the infrastructure was much less oil-dependant a century ago.
Everything takes time. Building steam-driven trains does too. And much old technology that has been forgotten by today's people will have to be relearned and distributed to the people needing it. We probably haven't got the time thanks to die hard optimists like yourself.
And now we have completely left out the chaos factor from a lack of governmental control and local desperation.
The die off is phenomena that follows the fall of civilisations. But you believe we are different, right? How is Sweden's agriculture by the way? I hear that most of the rural communities in Sweden already has been depopulated. Is Skåne going to feed you all?
Posted: Wed Dec 28, 2005 4:50 am Post subject: Re: The Worst Large European Nation "post peak oil"
A little consolation for Leaf:
Quote:
Tuesday, 27 December 2005, 14:25 GMT
Petrol shortages after Buncefield
Motorists are facing fuel shortages with some garages running out of petrol as they struggle with the after-effects of the Buncefield oil depot blasts.
Both the Hertfordshire depot blast and a seasonal peak in petrol sales have led to supplies being disrupted.
Some garages in the south-east have completely run out with others running short, fuel retailers have confirmed.
They have urged against panic buying and say they will be able to restock in the next couple of days.
Joined: Aug 12, 2004 Posts: 1180 Location: England
Posted: Wed Dec 28, 2005 4:55 am Post subject: Re: The Worst Large European Nation "post peak oil"
Andrew_S wrote:
A little consolation for Leaf:
Quote:
Tuesday, 27 December 2005, 14:25 GMT
Petrol shortages after Buncefield
Motorists are facing fuel shortages with some garages running out of petrol as they struggle with the after-effects of the Buncefield oil depot blasts.
Both the Hertfordshire depot blast and a seasonal peak in petrol sales have led to supplies being disrupted.
Some garages in the south-east have completely run out with others running short, fuel retailers have confirmed.
They have urged against panic buying and say they will be able to restock in the next couple of days.
Posted: Wed Dec 28, 2005 5:30 am Post subject: Re: The Worst Large European Nation "post peak oil"
Mine are working.
The operative term I think was "little". Doesn't sound at all serious so long as people don't start panic buying.
How's the snow situation being handled? Night-time temps "as low" as -5 C said the BBC. Maybe winters have been so mild in recent years people have forgotten what a bit of real winter is like. I remember the 87-88 winter. It was quite fun with most of Kent cut off.
Last edited by Andrew_S on Wed Dec 28, 2005 5:35 am; edited 1 time in total
Posted: Wed Dec 28, 2005 5:34 am Post subject: Re: The Worst Large European Nation "post peak oil"
Hey,
I still love you PB you ignorant bastard !!!
My emoticons aren't working either but I'm winking at you big boy.
I'm available for tuition on humour if you can bear it. Come on don't chicken out and I promise none of my jokes are fowl. _________________ www.askaboutenergy.com
Joined: Feb 20, 2005 Posts: 2888 Location: Uppsala, Sweden
Posted: Wed Dec 28, 2005 10:23 am Post subject: Re: The Worst Large European Nation "post peak oil"
Torjus wrote:
Remember that Europe is far denser populated than Africa.
That is a good thing as it means less transortation is required. Transportation require roughly 50 % of our oil production.
Torjus wrote:
Well let's assume that we can feed the current population in a post-peak world, which I personally doesn't believe.
It did before oil and populations haven't grown that much in Europe since oil use became widespread after WW2.
Torjus wrote:
In the recently passed agreement in WTO the EU commits themselves to ending the trade-barriers on 98% of the goods they produce by 2013. If peak oil doesn't put a halt to this before, most of Europe's agriculture will already be destroyed.
Why should free trade destroy the economy? Free trade generally do the opposite.
Torjus wrote:
When the oil gets really expensive, many economies will not afford to buy almost any oil, further worsening the problem.
Since we are the richest people on the planet we are the one who will afford to buy expensive oil.
Torjus wrote:
Where are you going to get the infrastructure for food-redistribution in a short time (4-5 years)?
It's already there. It's called trains, cars and trucks.
Torjus wrote:
Are farmers going to carry the on their backs to the train station? Horses doesn't breed that fast and you should keep in mind that the infrastructure was much less oil-dependant a century ago.
See above.
Torjus wrote:
Everything takes time. Building steam-driven trains does too.
It's a good thing depletion also takes time then eh? Five years after the peak oil production will still be around 90 % of peak production.
Torjus wrote:
And much old technology that has been forgotten by today's people will have to be relearned and distributed to the people needing it.
Like what technology?
Torjus wrote:
We probably haven't got the time thanks to die hard optimists like yourself.
Generally people consider me an alarmist who screams for new nuclear power stations, railroads and trams.
The reason you don't agree is that you probably are a proponent of the manured-powered ecotopia many so called "environmentalists" support. I don't want to live in the Medieval times. I fully support the industrial welfare state my parents and grandparents built.
Torjus wrote:
And now we have completely left out the chaos factor from a lack of governmental control and local desperation.
Yeah well, crap happens, but chaos is not a major issue in industrial countries. Just send in the riot police.
Torjus wrote:
The die off is phenomena that follows the fall of civilisations. But you believe we are different, right?
Just because Easter Island and the Mayans managed to Fark up their lands it doesn't mean we have too. The future is not set.
Many civilizations did not fall. That's why we are still here, greater and more enlightened than any civilization that has ever been.
Torjus wrote:
How is Sweden's agriculture by the way? I hear that most of the rural communities in Sweden already has been depopulated. Is Skåne going to feed you all?
As we speak agricultural lands in the northern two thirds of Sweden are turned into forests. Sweden can feed itself today, and can turn a lot of forest back into farms if we ever wanted.
But we don't have too. Food is just so very very cheap and abundant and so it will remain in the future. _________________ Peak oil is not an energy crisis. It is a liquid fuel crisis.
Joined: Aug 12, 2004 Posts: 1180 Location: England
Posted: Wed Dec 28, 2005 12:28 pm Post subject: Re: The Worst Large European Nation "post peak oil"
Leaf.
Matt's comments are fine, if we leave it to the market, then sure farmers will all go bust and we have a big problem.
I just dont believe governments will sit idle whilst farmers/food production/water production/essential industry go *** up. They will be subsidised and energy supplies/fertilizers ring fenced etc etc. The issue of food security in Europe is/was high on the priority list post WWII, this indeed was the origins of the CAP.
Economic theory was/is cooked up by a bunch of humans, they arent like the laws of physics, they can be adjusted/intervened/managed to get the desired outcome.
Im not sure the great depression is a good example, after all, the population of the US and the western world STILL WENT UP!! Not very good evidence of mass die off and starvation. This is also pre green revolution.
And by the way, even MonteQuest doesnt see mass starvation in the west as a certainty. (If I have taken you out of context I apologise Monte, but I think Im ok on this one)
Quote:
Will we see a massive die-off in our lifetime?
Possibly. Especially if you move to the third-world.
Joined: Aug 12, 2004 Posts: 1180 Location: England
Posted: Wed Dec 28, 2005 1:04 pm Post subject: Re: The Worst Large European Nation "post peak oil"
BTW Leaf.
For the sake of this debate, can you clarify your position please?
You use Matt's retort to my previous post(s).
Matt response argues that unemployment will be effected post peak so that people cannot afford food(which is fair enough), not that we DON'T have the capacity/energy to feed ourselves post peak.
There is a big difference in these two positions.
If it is the former , then we have an economic/standard of living issue.
If it is the latter then we have a die off issue.
Matts response therefore actually agrees more with me than you. _________________ Peak Oil? crap Happens !
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