Like the illusion of Wall Street, with its vast and powerful investment banks, now shuttered, China too is an illusion perpetuated by the Globalists that gave us the 15,000 mile Caesar salad, poisoned cat food and lead based paint on babies' pacifiers. Like the illusion that money would come from thin air to always push housing prices higher, China has spent a generation pursuing its illusion. Pursuing an unattainable dream to be like the West, while 6000 years of its carefully shepherded top soil blows into the sea.
Joined: Feb 09, 2006 Posts: 417 Location: Venezuela
Posted: Thu Feb 09, 2006 3:06 pm Post subject: Re: Cantarell Oil Production to "drop precipitously&quo
I don't recall the exact figures, but think that perhaps the US claims out to something like 200 miles. Mexico probably does something similar.
I also seem to recall that offshore from the US/Mexican border, there was something of a doughnut hole......a no-drill zone that neither country has entered because both laid claims to the area and the claims have never been settled.
Posted: Thu Feb 09, 2006 3:19 pm Post subject: Re: Cantarell Oil Production to "drop precipitously&
Here is a nice little PDF regarding U.S. sovereignty over their coastal waters. It doesn't really answer the Mexico question, but perhaps the situation is similar (as you alluded to).
Ocean Commission report (PDF) _________________ "It's called the American Dream because you'd have to be asleep to believe it."
Posted: Thu Feb 09, 2006 3:42 pm Post subject: Re: Cantarell Oil Production to "drop precipitously&quo
As is commonly understood, if Saudi Arabia is in decline then the world is in decline. If then Ghawar is "possibly declining", is Saudi Arabia then likely in decline?
Joined: Oct 23, 2004 Posts: 5928 Location: New Jersey
Posted: Thu Feb 09, 2006 3:46 pm Post subject: Re: Cantarell Oil Production to "drop precipitously&quo
An oil industry analyst and economist on Bloomberg today (missed the name) discussed his expectations that the price of oil would hit $90 – probably in 2006, and $100 by the end of 2007. This would be largely driven by the expected depletion of existing fields offsetting new production coming on stream. It appeared to be the analyst’s expectation that overall worldwide production would be increasing marginally the next two years; it was not clear that this person actually embraced the concept of worldwide PO. While Canterell was mentioned, and stated as being in decline, there was no statement what so ever in regards to the shocking fall off of production that may occur in the next few years.
As Petrodollar notes above, even the original druids of the PO cult may be underestimating the production collapse we will see in some fields after using the advanced techniques others above have (thankfully) explained.
It looks more and more that instead of the PTB sounding the PO alarm, we in the US will be just treated to ‘unexplained’ drops in the commercial weekly oil inventory levels in the next few years – due to falling imports. Meanwhile the Energy Policy Act of 2005 directs the Secretary of Energy to fill the Strategic Petroleum Reserve up to 1 billion barrels - at his/her discretion. I suggest they get going before China decides to fill its version of the SPR with 1 billion barrels too.
Joined: Feb 09, 2006 Posts: 417 Location: Venezuela
Posted: Thu Feb 09, 2006 3:46 pm Post subject: Re: Cantarell Oil Production to "drop precipitously&quo
Thanks for the PDF Emerson. It shows that we're claiming a 200 mile 'economic zone'. Again, I suspect that Mexico is doing something similar.
As for your comments about drilling in deep "international waters", you've pretty well hit the nail on the head as it relates to getting the crude to the surface where it can be processed and delivered to market.
Many of the deep water GOM projects don't actually produce the crude directly to the surface above where they're drilled. They're completed using subsurface wellheads on the seafloor. The fluids are then produced through flowlines on the seafloor to shallow-water platforms and the gas, oil, water is separated and distributed from there.
In the North Sea, it was much more common to use Floating Production Facilities in the the deep water prospects but there was always a lot of resistence to the idea in the GOM. That may have changed over the last few years as I know a number of companies were lobbying the MMS to allow them to use such facilities.
Posted: Thu Feb 09, 2006 5:05 pm Post subject: Re: Cantarell Oil Production to "drop precipitously&
cudabachi wrote:
In the North Sea, it was much more common to use Floating Production Facilities in the the deep water prospects but there was always a lot of resistence to the idea in the GOM. That may have changed over the last few years as I know a number of companies were lobbying the MMS to allow them to use such facilities.
Interesting. It looks like we might have to have floating production facilities in the GOM by necessity at some point in the future. It's certainly where some of the better prospects of future oil capacity reside. _________________ "It's called the American Dream because you'd have to be asleep to believe it."
Posted: Thu Feb 09, 2006 6:30 pm Post subject: Re: Cantarell Oil Production to "drop precipitously&quo
I beleive Cliff Oil rather then a simple peak is being engineered by TPTB. All those large fields are long past their "natural" peaks. TPTB have to keep things growing, and keep people spending, and consuming or there will be huge political and economic consequences. Every day that we put off the day of reconning only makes that day worse.
Joined: Aug 17, 2005 Posts: 582 Location: Portugal
Posted: Fri Feb 10, 2006 2:42 am Post subject: Re: Cantarell Oil Production to "drop precipitously&quo
Cliff oil is indeed a very realistic scenario.. what oil companies are doing is finding ways to make a better oil-sucking straw. Great production just until the well dries up and then it's GAME OVER.
Posted: Fri Feb 10, 2006 3:13 am Post subject: Re: Cantarell Oil Production to "drop precipitously&
Cliff is possible. If you run these field on full throttle and water/gas breaks through then you need to cut the rates to reduce to intake of water. Plus high rates are not good for nice and even sweep of oil from the area around the well. You can develop what is called by-passed oil. To get it back once water breaks through is another issue not easily resolved. _________________ Men argue, nature acts !
Voltaire
"...In the absence of the gold standard, there is no way to protect savings from confiscation through inflation."
Posted: Fri Feb 10, 2006 7:09 am Post subject: Re: Cantarell Oil Production to "drop precipitously&
emersonbiggins wrote:
cudabachi wrote:
In the North Sea, it was much more common to use Floating Production Facilities in the the deep water prospects but there was always a lot of resistence to the idea in the GOM. That may have changed over the last few years as I know a number of companies were lobbying the MMS to allow them to use such facilities.
Interesting. It looks like we might have to have floating production facilities in the GOM by necessity at some point in the future. It's certainly where some of the better prospects of future oil capacity reside.
We already have "floating" semi submersible rigs in the gulf for deep water drilling. Two examples are the MARS platform and the new BP Thunderhorse rig. Though Thunderhorse has had problems in getting into place due to the string of gulf hurricanes.
Joined: Apr 21, 2004 Posts: 508 Location: Republic of Texas
Posted: Fri Feb 10, 2006 8:30 am Post subject: Re: Cantarell Oil Production to "drop precipitously&quo
I got the new copy of Hydrocarbon Processing yesterday. They have an article about Mexico's clean fuels program. As part of the article they show a graph of future Mexican oil output by field with Olmeca, Istmo, and Maya (Cantarell). The projection according to Hydrocarbon Processing is showing Maya peaking next year at 1.6 MM bpd and then declining to zero by 2016. I had heard of the steep decline expected but it’s still surprising to see 0 BPD from Cantarell in 10 years.
The bizarre thing is that the article throws up this semi-shocking chart showing Mexican oil production dropping by 2/3 in the next ten years and doesn’t make any mention of the problems that may cause. The only reference to the chart is for talking about how the crude qualities will change with Mayan out of the mix. _________________ The road goes on forever and the party never ends - REK
Joined: Oct 23, 2004 Posts: 5928 Location: New Jersey
Posted: Fri Feb 10, 2006 9:07 am Post subject: Re: Cantarell Oil Production to "drop precipitously&
pip wrote:
I got the new copy of Hydrocarbon Processing yesterday. They have an article about Mexico's clean fuels program. As part of the article they show a graph of future Mexican oil output by field with Olmeca, Istmo, and Maya (Cantarell). The projection according to Hydrocarbon Processing is showing Maya peaking next year at 1.6 MM bpd and then declining to zero by 2016. I had heard of the steep decline expected but it’s still surprising to see 0 BPD from Cantarell in 10 years.
The bizarre thing is that the article throws up this semi-shocking chart showing Mexican oil production dropping by 2/3 in the next ten years and doesn’t make any mention of the problems that may cause. The only reference to the chart is for talking about how the crude qualities will change with Mayan out of the mix.
Thanks. This is incredibly bad. Pemex has commented on the WSJ story:
Quote:
AFX Asia Focus Copyright 2006 AFX News Limited 9 Feb 2006 Mexican oil output could drop sharply - report
Pemex says it is confident it can make up for any decline at Cantarell by squeezing more output from other fields, but some analysts outside the company are far less sanguine. The study was carried out last year by Pemex experts.
'I am confident in Pemex's portfolio of assets. Other fields will be able to substitute (Cantarell's output) and increase production,' Juan Jose Suarez Coppel, the company's chief financial officer, said in an interview. Pemex predicts Mexico's output will actually grow this year to 3.42 mln barrels a day from 3.33 mln barrels last year.
But the study already prompted the company in December to predict a slightly sharper decline at Cantarell than its previous forecasts -- with output down 6 pct this year to an average rate of 1.9 mln barrels a day and off to 1.43 mln barrels as an average for 2008. That prediction now roughly matches the study's most optimistic scenario.
Posted: Fri Feb 10, 2006 7:05 pm Post subject: Re: Cantarell Oil Production to "drop precipitously&
DantesPeak wrote:
Thanks. This is incredibly bad. Pemex has commented on the WSJ story:
Quote:
AFX Asia Focus Copyright 2006 AFX News Limited 9 Feb 2006
Mexican oil output could drop sharply - report
Pemex says it is confident it can make up for any decline at Cantarell by squeezing more output from other fields, but some analysts outside the company are far less sanguine. The study was carried out last year by Pemex experts. .
That is until those fields go into deline too. Just more proof that a cliff oil senario it being set up.
Joined: Feb 09, 2006 Posts: 417 Location: Venezuela
Posted: Mon Feb 13, 2006 4:08 pm Post subject: Re: Cantarell Oil Production to "drop precipitously&
lsu2001 wrote:
emersonbiggins wrote:
cudabachi wrote:
In the North Sea, it was much more common to use Floating Production Facilities in the the deep water prospects but there was always a lot of resistence to the idea in the GOM. That may have changed over the last few years as I know a number of companies were lobbying the MMS to allow them to use such facilities.
Interesting. It looks like we might have to have floating production facilities in the GOM by necessity at some point in the future. It's certainly where some of the better prospects of future oil capacity reside.
We already have "floating" semi submersible rigs in the gulf for deep water drilling. Two examples are the MARS platform and the new BP Thunderhorse rig. Though Thunderhorse has had problems in getting into place due to the string of gulf hurricanes.
Semi-submersible drilling rigs have been working in the GOM for many years. But drilling a well and completing it at the seabed is quite different than producing the fluids to the surface, separating them, storing the oil, and then transporting it to shore.
As I said, at the time I got out of the oilfield, the MMS was actively being lobbied by industry (mainly by companies with ties to the North Sea) to allow for floating production systems in deep water, but none had been approved. Perhaps that has changed.
Joined: Oct 23, 2004 Posts: 5928 Location: New Jersey
Posted: Sat Feb 18, 2006 12:31 pm Post subject: Re: Cantarell Oil Production to "drop precipitously&
Will modern civilization (or at least low oil prices) suffer the same fate as dinosaurs because of the same meteor? The final word on Cantarell.
Quote:
The Peak Oil Crisis Cantarell — An Omen? By Tom Whipple
There are a lot of bad things out there waiting to bite as the world moves towards peak oil— Iran, Iraq, Nigeria, Venezuela, China, globalization, and hurricanes to name a few. Last week a new bogeyman arose — super fast oil depletion.
Our story begins 65 million years ago when the Chicxulub meteor (or perhaps comet) crashed into the sea near the Yucatan Peninsula . This was one big bang, for it not only wiped out all our dinosaurs, but also took out 75% of the species living on earth. As our 10 km wide meteor was tooling along at 60,000 miles per hour when it hit, there was not much left of the meteor but vapor after the impact, but for a few seconds, there was a monster hole in the earth 100 miles in diameter. I won't go into all the terrible things that happened to our earth in the months after the blast, but few living things survived.
Our new hole promptly filled up with rubble (breccia, to geologists) pushed in by the rushing waters of the returning sea and landslides along the sides of the crater. Somewhere, between 65 million years ago and 1976, parts of this underwater rubble filled hole, filled up with about 35 billion barrels of oil. Making it one of the world's greatest oil fields. It is now called Cantarell.
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