Like the illusion of Wall Street, with its vast and powerful investment banks, now shuttered, China too is an illusion perpetuated by the Globalists that gave us the 15,000 mile Caesar salad, poisoned cat food and lead based paint on babies' pacifiers. Like the illusion that money would come from thin air to always push housing prices higher, China has spent a generation pursuing its illusion. Pursuing an unattainable dream to be like the West, while 6000 years of its carefully shepherded top soil blows into the sea.
Posted: Mon Dec 12, 2005 11:15 am Post subject: When to Sell Gold
its been discussed a lot here about the merits of gold, and when to buy gold (including mining and precious metal funds). I feel I have a good grasp on these basics. But in order to close the loop, before I start investing, I also would like to know when to sell the gold (or the indicators to look for that its not the best investment)
I am currently of the belief that we will have one more stockmarket rally after the current housing market bust bottoms out and the central banks start manipuliting the crap out of things for one last kick at the cat.
At this point the last thing I would want to get stuck in is a Gold Crash, right before we hit/pass the Peak.
edit---
and yes I know I've missed the best time to buy gold, but I was not ready to invest until recently _________________ Angry yet?
Joined: Apr 17, 2005 Posts: 2763 Location: Vancouver Island
Posted: Mon Dec 12, 2005 11:26 am Post subject: Re: When to Sell Gold
It depends on why you're buying gold. I'm buying gold as a hedge against hyper inflation. If it gets high enough to completely pay off my house I'll sell it. Thats about 5000% inflation for the amount I will purchase so I'm not holding my breath. It's just another safety blanket for my paranoid mind. _________________ shame on us, doomed from the start
god have mercy on our dirty little hearts
Posted: Mon Dec 12, 2005 11:46 am Post subject: Re: When to Sell Gold
My model shows the first peak in this spike at $1,050US next June, followed by a small consolidation with a new high of $1,350US in Feb., 2007. After that the excitement should be over and by 2010 gold should get back down to $700US. For speculation (attempting to make money on price change) in gold you might consider these benchmarks.
Joined: Dec 16, 2004 Posts: 706 Location: Santa Monica, CA
Posted: Mon Dec 12, 2005 12:00 pm Post subject: Re: When to Sell Gold
gego wrote:
My model shows the first peak in this spike at $1,050US next June, followed by a small consolidation with a new high of $1,350US in Feb., 2007. After that the excitement should be over and by 2010 gold should get back down to $700US. For speculation (attempting to make money on price change) in gold you might consider these benchmarks.
Posted: Mon Dec 12, 2005 12:01 pm Post subject: Re: When to Sell Gold
gego wrote:
My model shows the first peak in this spike at $1,050US next June, followed by a small consolidation with a new high of $1,350US in Feb., 2007. After that the excitement should be over and by 2010 gold should get back down to $700US. For speculation (attempting to make money on price change) in gold you might consider these benchmarks.
Gego,
Can you advise a Canadian investor how best to play this upside?
Joined: Jun 25, 2004 Posts: 74 Location: NW Indiana
Posted: Mon Dec 12, 2005 12:22 pm Post subject: Re: When to Sell Gold
strider3700 wrote:
It depends on why you're buying gold. I'm buying gold as a hedge against hyper inflation.
I absolutely agree with you. Since I own gold as insurance gold, I never expect to sell it. What's the saying? Buy gold when you can; sell it when you have to? If I wind up giving it to my grandkids, fine. It will only be because disaster never happened and I never needed to exploit my insurance position. That would actually be the best, happy outcome!
Granted, I expect the price of gold to rise. But that is because I lack confidence in the dollar. I told a friend last night that I don't need to counterfeit dollars; the fed is doing a fine job of debasing the currency without any assistance from me.
Joined: Sep 14, 2004 Posts: 6625 Location: Rural Virginia
Posted: Mon Dec 12, 2005 12:50 pm Post subject: Re: When to Sell Gold
I agree with those saying that gold is an asset of last resort, meaning it should be the last one you part with.
I belong to the camp that believes that the value of gold is relatively fixed, with fiat currencies fluctuating against it.
Sell it only if you have to. And remember that when you sell it, you'll get only play money in return. _________________ "Actually, humans died out long ago."
---Abused, abandoned hunting dog
"Things have entered a stage where the only change that is possible is for things to get worse."
---Me and my brother
Posted: Mon Dec 12, 2005 1:36 pm Post subject: Re: When to Sell Gold
strider3700 wrote:
It depends on why you're buying gold.
well part of my interest in gold is as protection against inflation. The other reason is to ride the wave as investors bail out of the stockmarket and also seek protection against inflation.
Although gold is good for maintaning its value against dollar changes, it is still prone speculation (expecially when people are anticipating a major economic down turn like we're seeing now).
The other side is that Gold is priced in US dollars, and I fully expect that the canadian dollar will do "Relatively" better. So there's a window were we canucks have better buying power for gold. Because our exchange rate has gone from horrible to very good recently, gold has only risen 10% in canadian dollars in the last few years, where as its risen by 50% in US dollars over the same time period.
However at this point I'll admit I'm out of my legue in understanding how it all works when you start to consider depericating/appreciating currencies. So advice in this area is also welcomed _________________ Angry yet?
Posted: Mon Dec 12, 2005 2:48 pm Post subject: Re: When to Sell Gold
Don't think of it as selling gold, think of it as exchanging gold for another asset. You should do it when you think another asset is more desirable. Right now most financial assets are big jokes and that's why people are buying gold, to wait until other options become available.
Posted: Mon Dec 12, 2005 3:01 pm Post subject: Re: When to Sell Gold
CB00097 wrote:
Gego,
Can you advise a Canadian investor how best to play this upside?
Thanks in advance,
Matthew.
I guess it all depends on how comfortable you are speculating. If you buy gold coins or bars, you only get the benefit of the price increase in gold, so you stand to better than double your money. If you buy shares in gold mining companies then you stand to do better than that because each gold miner has many, many ounces of unmined gold, but there is more risk because you are not invested directly in gold and you may face any of the problems that an individual gold miner has.
There are mutual funds that invest in gold shares so you spread your risk by buying the fund rather than individaul shares.
If you buy shares in gold mining companies directly, I would avoid Barrick(ABX) and Placer Dome Gold (PDG) as both are significantly hedged, so they won't fully participate in the run up in the price of gold. Goldcorp (GG) is considered one of the better managed Canadian companies, but you pay a premium in the share price. Newmont (NEM) is one of the bigger US based companies. If you go to the website of Gold-Eagle there is much information about gold related investments.
If you are looking for a big risk, big reward play, then maybe some of the South African shares would interest you. DRD gold (DROOY) and Harmony
gold mines (HMY) really got beat up over the last several years because of the price of gold in South African Rand being low. This is reversing now. Gold Fields (GFI) is also a South African company with a little better reputation than the above.
Remember that you are speculating and taking a risk, as with ALL investments. Life is fraught with danger.
Joined: Dec 07, 2005 Posts: 2019 Location: Australia
Posted: Mon Dec 12, 2005 4:53 pm Post subject: Re: When to Sell Gold
Agree with Gego.
Why not invest in paper gold to start with.
For instance put it on gold CFD's. These are easier to deal with than physical gold, on the shorter term, as you can put stoploss orders etc.
For shares/cfd's etc you should however try to get some help from someone who is experienced in trading or ensure you don't overinvest so you constantly end up watching the price.
Also, like Gego said, with shares, you may see prices go down even though gold price goes up as the companies are affected by sentiment, oil prices etc. On the other hand, gold shares can go up further and faster than gold itself when there is momentum. So once again, don't overtrade, learn some trading method and/or get some help.
On the longer term, physical gold is safer as cfd providers etc can go bancrupt.
So perhaps invest in paper first and if/when you make profit, convert some of these to physical gold.
Joined: Sep 14, 2004 Posts: 6625 Location: Rural Virginia
Posted: Mon Dec 12, 2005 4:57 pm Post subject: Re: When to Sell Gold
Mining stocks are an option, but in the words of a writer on gold I like (Kosares), remember that they are "stocks first and gold second." Kosares points out that in big stock-market crashes, gold stocks have gone down with the rest of them.
Overall, I prefer the physical stuff to the stocks; and it will surely outlast them! _________________ "Actually, humans died out long ago."
---Abused, abandoned hunting dog
"Things have entered a stage where the only change that is possible is for things to get worse."
---Me and my brother
Joined: Sep 14, 2004 Posts: 6625 Location: Rural Virginia
Posted: Mon Dec 12, 2005 4:58 pm Post subject: Re: When to Sell Gold
jaws wrote:
Don't think of it as selling gold, think of it as exchanging gold for another asset. You should do it when you think another asset is more desirable. Right now most financial assets are big jokes and that's why people are buying gold, to wait until other options become available.
As usual, very nicely said, jaws, through those outrageous teeth.
Posted: Mon Dec 12, 2005 5:48 pm Post subject: Re: When to Sell Gold
I think gold should be sold if you can make a profit....and also if you think it's going down soon. Look at what just hapened to poor silver, It was trading as high as 9.20 yesterday, and now it's been beaten down to 8.60, gold faired alot better but it's important to take profit, there's not point in allways keeping money tied up in gold. I really think the gold mining shares are the way to go, but perhaps have 25/25/50 in gold, silver & mining shares.
Finanicalsense said gold could go as low as $420 from the recent upsurge.
Posted: Mon Dec 12, 2005 5:50 pm Post subject: Re: When to Sell Gold
I think today is an excellent time to sell gold. Any time gold or silver or other precious metals reach new territory is the right time to sell. I know this is very simple-sounding, but there are many players who could change the price of gold in unpredictable ways. Taiwan is a large holder of gold reserves. Production is another issue. Then there is the pull from investors who could continue to drive the price higher. Then there is the possibility of a drop in the value of the paper dollar. All these things can affect the price of gold, but in the here and now, it is high, so sell now.
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