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advancedatheist Heavy Crude


Joined: Mar 10, 2005 Posts: 171
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Posted: Wed Dec 14, 2005 1:02 am Post subject: North Sea gas drying up faster than hoped (!!!) |
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http://news.scotsman.com/scotland.cfm?id=2403612005
| Quote: | North Sea gas drying up faster than hoped
JAMES KIRKUP
WESTMINSTER EDITOR
NORTH Sea gas reserves are being used up faster than anticipated, MPs said yesterday, warning that energy shortages will be impossible to avert in the event of the predicted harsh winter.
Taking evidence from government ministers and energy industry experts, the House of Commons trade and industry committee heard that Britain's gas is being depleted well ahead of schedule.
That will make the country more dependent on imported gas, and sharpen the problems caused by Britain's lack of storage capacity.
The natural gas reserves in the UK "Continental Shelf" area are about 600 billion cubic metres, and production is declining from its peak in 2000.
According to current official estimates, the UK is expected to be 50 per cent dependent on imported gas by 2010, and 80 per cent dependent by 2020.
But during their inquiry, the MPs heard that "supplies of gas from the UK Continental Shelf had continued to decline at a faster rate than anticipated, leaving a larger shortfall to be made up from imports".
More imports will necessitate more investment in pipelines and storage capacity, but the MPs also heard that current construction plans were not accelerating at the same pace as gas depletion. |
_________________ "There was a time before reason and science when my ancestors believed in all manner of nonsense." Narim on Stargate SG-1. |
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clv101 Light Sweet Crude


Joined: Jun 02, 2004 Posts: 1078 Location: Bristol, UK
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Posted: Wed Dec 14, 2005 2:47 am Post subject: Re: North Sea gas drying up faster than hoped (!!!) |
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It's not just gas:
For the three months June 2005 to August 2005 compared to the same period a year earlier:
- production of petroleum fell by 16.2%;
- production of natural gas fell by 17.0%;
- production of coal and other solid fuels fell by 24.9%;
- electricity produced from nuclear sources rose by 11.8%;
- electricity produced from wind and natural flow hydro fell by 4.4%.
We can probably discount the increase in nuclear as an anomaly since we know the fleet is being decommissioned over the next decade or so, I’ll put it down to there being one or more reactors down for maintenance in 2004 that are operating again now.
Bad News For UK Energy _________________ "Everything is proceeding as I have foreseen." The Emperor (Return of the Jedi)
The Oil Drum: Europe |
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Doly Expert


Joined: Dec 03, 2004 Posts: 4041
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Posted: Wed Dec 14, 2005 3:48 am Post subject: Re: North Sea gas drying up faster than hoped (!!!) |
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| Then where did the energy in the UK come from last year? |
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bobbyald Heavy Crude


Joined: Jan 18, 2005 Posts: 265 Location: London, UK.
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Posted: Wed Dec 14, 2005 10:26 am Post subject: Re: North Sea gas drying up faster than hoped (!!!) |
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This is basically what I expected as far as natural gas is concerned and it's not a good situation to be in. What happens in the years ahead if Algeria, Russia etc. can't or wont supply us at any price?
Chaos! _________________ Life results from the non-random selection of randomly generated replicators |
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EnergySpin Fission


Joined: Jun 25, 2005 Posts: 2381
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Posted: Wed Dec 14, 2005 10:51 am Post subject: Re: North Sea gas drying up faster than hoped (!!!) |
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| bobbyald wrote: | This is basically what I expected as far as natural gas is concerned and it's not a good situation to be in. What happens in the years ahead if Algeria, Russia etc. can't or wont supply us at any price?
Chaos! |
Go for nuclear ... or suffer the consequences  _________________ "Nuclear power has long been to the Left what embryonic-stem-cell research is to the Right--irredeemably wrong and a signifier of moral weakness."Esquire Magazine,12/05
The genetic code is commaless and so are my posts. |
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TITAN Intermediate Crude

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Joined: May 25, 2005 Posts: 506 Location: New Northwest Union
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Posted: Wed Dec 14, 2005 10:19 pm Post subject: Re: North Sea gas drying up faster than hoped (!!!) |
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"North Sea gas drying up faster than hoped "
I don't know, I can hope pretty darned fast...
Seriously though, I wish this thing would hurry up, I didn't go out and get completely prepared for PO for nothing!! |
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BorneoRagnarok Heavy Crude


Joined: Sep 18, 2004 Posts: 252 Location: East Malaysia
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Posted: Thu Dec 15, 2005 7:33 am Post subject: Re: North Sea gas drying up faster than hoped (!!!) |
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Doomed ,we are doomed.
I feel so panic that I type out a simple VBS script to calculate the oil production output N years after peak production at X depletion rate
| Code: |
Dim InitialAmount
Dim Year
Percentage_of_Peak_production = 50
DepletionRate = 10
InitialAmount = 100
Year = 0
Do While Year > -999
If InitialAmount <= Percentage_of_Peak_production Then
Msgbox Year & " years later only " & InitialAmount & "% remained"
Exit Do
End If
InitialAmount = InitialAmount * ((100 - DepletionRate) / 100)
Year = Year + 1
Loop |
First copy and paste it to a text file.
Save it and rename it as anthing.vbs
Click it.Edit Percentage_of_Peak_production = 50 DepletionRate = 10 for different scenario.
7 years towards half production. _________________ When all the rivers run dry, all the forests have been cleared, all the food has been eaten, tell me the value of your money |
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TorrKing Intermediate Crude


Joined: Nov 24, 2005 Posts: 743 Location: The ever shrinking wilds of Norway
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Posted: Thu Dec 15, 2005 7:52 am Post subject: Re: North Sea gas drying up faster than hoped (!!!) |
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| Leaf wrote: |
So you can carry on business as usual for a few more years..And so the UK can pack in anouther 10-20 million more people...and then comes peak uranium and then what? All your non-sense pro-Nuc post energy spin does is postpone the inevitable and sets up for an even mightier collapse and bandaids the problems at hand. So you spare you children now but how about your granchildren in the future? Anyway at this point in the game Nuc power wont be no superman hero. |
I agree totally, it is not accepting defeat. It is accepting that we too are governed by nature. The catastrophe will grow bigger for every year we can postpone this. No wonder the US is a hurry on colonizing Mars.
By the way, Leaf, promise me that you get some wisent and try to preserve this specie through the crisis ahead. I am a 110% confident that it will become extinct when the food runs low in Poland and Belarus.
Torjus Gaaren |
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PWALPOCO Heavy Crude


Joined: Oct 02, 2005 Posts: 290 Location: North Wales , UK
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Posted: Sat Dec 17, 2005 11:10 am Post subject: Re: North Sea gas drying up faster than hoped (!!!) |
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BBC - North Sea Investment Cut
Of course , stories like the above indicate how much harder its going to be to get more goodies out of the North Sea.
After "The Great Gordos" amazing trick of making Oil Company profits dissapear "Abra-cad-windfall-tax-ra" its little wonder their means of striking back is to pull some of the investment.
Well done Gordon Brown , you muppet.
Paul |
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clv101 Light Sweet Crude


Joined: Jun 02, 2004 Posts: 1078 Location: Bristol, UK
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Posted: Sat Dec 17, 2005 11:35 am Post subject: Re: North Sea gas drying up faster than hoped (!!!) |
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I don't believe Gordon Brown's recent tax decision is the reason for Shell only running two rigs where they previously planned three. This is just Shell trying to make Brown look bad. _________________ "Everything is proceeding as I have foreseen." The Emperor (Return of the Jedi)
The Oil Drum: Europe |
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PWALPOCO Heavy Crude


Joined: Oct 02, 2005 Posts: 290 Location: North Wales , UK
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Posted: Sat Dec 17, 2005 11:58 am Post subject: Re: North Sea gas drying up faster than hoped (!!!) |
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clv , indeed your probably right , they may well just be throwing their toys out the cot , so to speak.
However , I remember watching live , when the oil people were giving evidence to a House of Commons committee on the very subject of windfall taxes and remember clearly what was being said.
Back then , for I think it was in the spring , those asking the questions raised the subject of windfall taxes repeatedly to the different company representatives as they came and went.
Each time the response was that a windfall tax would deter investment. Investments are based on the long term , when oil was very cheap no one was helping investers who werent getting the returns on that investment. The moment the "good times" came the Government start talking about windfall taxes !
On the basis of what they said back then , and whats reported now , I can only conclude that the Windfall Tax is the cause. Basically what they said would happen has happened.
Paul |
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clv101 Light Sweet Crude


Joined: Jun 02, 2004 Posts: 1078 Location: Bristol, UK
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Posted: Sat Dec 17, 2005 12:08 pm Post subject: Re: North Sea gas drying up faster than hoped (!!!) |
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But this tax isn't so large... $60 oil is vastly more (even after this tax) than they would have planned for two years ago. Their obvious response to the suggestion of more tax is less investment, less service, less product etc whatever business you are in. In this case however I think the oil majors working in the UK are cash rich and whatever Brown decides to do tax wise the North Sea output will meet it's geological potential. _________________ "Everything is proceeding as I have foreseen." The Emperor (Return of the Jedi)
The Oil Drum: Europe |
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