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Peakoil.com :: View topic - North Sea gas drying up faster than hoped (!!!)
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North Sea gas drying up faster than hoped (!!!)

 
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advancedatheist
Heavy Crude
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Joined: Mar 10, 2005
Posts: 171

PostPosted: Wed Dec 14, 2005 1:02 am    Post subject: North Sea gas drying up faster than hoped (!!!) Add User to Ignore List Reply with quote

http://news.scotsman.com/scotland.cfm?id=2403612005

Quote:
North Sea gas drying up faster than hoped
JAMES KIRKUP
WESTMINSTER EDITOR
NORTH Sea gas reserves are being used up faster than anticipated, MPs said yesterday, warning that energy shortages will be impossible to avert in the event of the predicted harsh winter.

Taking evidence from government ministers and energy industry experts, the House of Commons trade and industry committee heard that Britain's gas is being depleted well ahead of schedule.

That will make the country more dependent on imported gas, and sharpen the problems caused by Britain's lack of storage capacity.

The natural gas reserves in the UK "Continental Shelf" area are about 600 billion cubic metres, and production is declining from its peak in 2000.

According to current official estimates, the UK is expected to be 50 per cent dependent on imported gas by 2010, and 80 per cent dependent by 2020.

But during their inquiry, the MPs heard that "supplies of gas from the UK Continental Shelf had continued to decline at a faster rate than anticipated, leaving a larger shortfall to be made up from imports".

More imports will necessitate more investment in pipelines and storage capacity, but the MPs also heard that current construction plans were not accelerating at the same pace as gas depletion.

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clv101
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Joined: Jun 02, 2004
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Location: Bristol, UK

PostPosted: Wed Dec 14, 2005 2:47 am    Post subject: Re: North Sea gas drying up faster than hoped (!!!) Add User to Ignore List Reply with quote

It's not just gas:

For the three months June 2005 to August 2005 compared to the same period a year earlier:
- production of petroleum fell by 16.2%;
- production of natural gas fell by 17.0%;
- production of coal and other solid fuels fell by 24.9%;
- electricity produced from nuclear sources rose by 11.8%;
- electricity produced from wind and natural flow hydro fell by 4.4%.

We can probably discount the increase in nuclear as an anomaly since we know the fleet is being decommissioned over the next decade or so, I’ll put it down to there being one or more reactors down for maintenance in 2004 that are operating again now.

Bad News For UK Energy
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Doly
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PostPosted: Wed Dec 14, 2005 3:48 am    Post subject: Re: North Sea gas drying up faster than hoped (!!!) Add User to Ignore List Reply with quote

Then where did the energy in the UK come from last year?
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bobbyald
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PostPosted: Wed Dec 14, 2005 10:26 am    Post subject: Re: North Sea gas drying up faster than hoped (!!!) Add User to Ignore List Reply with quote

This is basically what I expected as far as natural gas is concerned and it's not a good situation to be in. What happens in the years ahead if Algeria, Russia etc. can't or wont supply us at any price?

Chaos!
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EnergySpin
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PostPosted: Wed Dec 14, 2005 10:51 am    Post subject: Re: North Sea gas drying up faster than hoped (!!!) Add User to Ignore List Reply with quote

bobbyald wrote:
This is basically what I expected as far as natural gas is concerned and it's not a good situation to be in. What happens in the years ahead if Algeria, Russia etc. can't or wont supply us at any price?

Chaos!

Go for nuclear ... or suffer the consequences Embarassed
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TITAN
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Joined: May 25, 2005
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PostPosted: Wed Dec 14, 2005 10:19 pm    Post subject: Re: North Sea gas drying up faster than hoped (!!!) Add User to Ignore List Reply with quote

"North Sea gas drying up faster than hoped "

I don't know, I can hope pretty darned fast...

Seriously though, I wish this thing would hurry up, I didn't go out and get completely prepared for PO for nothing!!
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BorneoRagnarok
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Joined: Sep 18, 2004
Posts: 252
Location: East Malaysia

PostPosted: Thu Dec 15, 2005 7:33 am    Post subject: Re: North Sea gas drying up faster than hoped (!!!) Add User to Ignore List Reply with quote

Doomed ,we are doomed.
I feel so panic that I type out a simple VBS script to calculate the oil production output N years after peak production at X depletion rate

Code:

Dim InitialAmount
Dim Year

Percentage_of_Peak_production = 50
DepletionRate = 10

InitialAmount = 100
Year = 0


Do While Year > -999

   If InitialAmount <= Percentage_of_Peak_production Then
      Msgbox Year & " years later only " & InitialAmount & "% remained"      
      Exit Do
   End If
   
   InitialAmount = InitialAmount * ((100 - DepletionRate) / 100)
   Year = Year + 1

Loop


First copy and paste it to a text file.
Save it and rename it as anthing.vbs
Click it.Edit Percentage_of_Peak_production = 50 DepletionRate = 10 for different scenario.

7 years towards half production.
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TorrKing
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Joined: Nov 24, 2005
Posts: 743
Location: The ever shrinking wilds of Norway

PostPosted: Thu Dec 15, 2005 7:52 am    Post subject: Re: North Sea gas drying up faster than hoped (!!!) Add User to Ignore List Reply with quote

Leaf wrote:

So you can carry on business as usual for a few more years..And so the UK can pack in anouther 10-20 million more people...and then comes peak uranium and then what? All your non-sense pro-Nuc 5nuclear post energy spin does is postpone the inevitable and sets up for an even mightier collapse and bandaids the problems at hand. So you spare you children now but how about your granchildren in the future? Anyway at this point in the game Nuc power wont be no superman hero.


I agree totally, it is not accepting defeat. It is accepting that we too are governed by nature. The catastrophe will grow bigger for every year we can postpone this. No wonder the US is a hurry on colonizing Mars.

By the way, Leaf, promise me that you get some wisent and try to preserve this specie through the crisis ahead. I am a 110% confident that it will become extinct when the food runs low in Poland and Belarus. Sad

Torjus Gaaren
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PWALPOCO
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Joined: Oct 02, 2005
Posts: 290
Location: North Wales , UK

PostPosted: Sat Dec 17, 2005 11:10 am    Post subject: Re: North Sea gas drying up faster than hoped (!!!) Add User to Ignore List Reply with quote

BBC - North Sea Investment Cut

Of course , stories like the above indicate how much harder its going to be to get more goodies out of the North Sea.

After "The Great Gordos" amazing trick of making Oil Company profits dissapear "Abra-cad-windfall-tax-ra" its little wonder their means of striking back is to pull some of the investment.

Well done Gordon Brown , you muppet.

Paul
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clv101
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Joined: Jun 02, 2004
Posts: 1078
Location: Bristol, UK

PostPosted: Sat Dec 17, 2005 11:35 am    Post subject: Re: North Sea gas drying up faster than hoped (!!!) Add User to Ignore List Reply with quote

I don't believe Gordon Brown's recent tax decision is the reason for Shell only running two rigs where they previously planned three. This is just Shell trying to make Brown look bad.
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The Oil Drum: Europe
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PWALPOCO
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Posts: 290
Location: North Wales , UK

PostPosted: Sat Dec 17, 2005 11:58 am    Post subject: Re: North Sea gas drying up faster than hoped (!!!) Add User to Ignore List Reply with quote

clv , indeed your probably right , they may well just be throwing their toys out the cot , so to speak.

However , I remember watching live , when the oil people were giving evidence to a House of Commons committee on the very subject of windfall taxes and remember clearly what was being said.

Back then , for I think it was in the spring , those asking the questions raised the subject of windfall taxes repeatedly to the different company representatives as they came and went.

Each time the response was that a windfall tax would deter investment. Investments are based on the long term , when oil was very cheap no one was helping investers who werent getting the returns on that investment. The moment the "good times" came the Government start talking about windfall taxes !

On the basis of what they said back then , and whats reported now , I can only conclude that the Windfall Tax is the cause. Basically what they said would happen has happened.

Paul
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clv101
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Posts: 1078
Location: Bristol, UK

PostPosted: Sat Dec 17, 2005 12:08 pm    Post subject: Re: North Sea gas drying up faster than hoped (!!!) Add User to Ignore List Reply with quote

But this tax isn't so large... $60 oil is vastly more (even after this tax) than they would have planned for two years ago. Their obvious response to the suggestion of more tax is less investment, less service, less product etc whatever business you are in. In this case however I think the oil majors working in the UK are cash rich and whatever Brown decides to do tax wise the North Sea output will meet it's geological potential.
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