[Opinion] Assessments and Plans Discussion

PG · Coal Joined: Apr 01, 2006 Posts: 3

There seem to be two threads on this topic. Perhaps the other one got too long? I posted my first post on the other thread, got no reponse, and am reposting it here:

Posted: Sun Apr 02, 2006 12:20 pm Post subject: Re: [Opinion] Assessments and Plans

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Schneider wrote:
It's been almost 2 years i know about peak oil..here the result....

Schneider
French-Canadian

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Just found this site today after reading something about "peak oil," a term new to me.

I've been taking stock for the last few hours, and I'm in a quaundry about several things - not the least of which is how seriously to take this.

If the reading material I went through is correct, this is a very serious matter indeed.

I live in the US near the Canada border.

As to taking stock - my house is not paid for.

I do have 136 acres about 70 miles north of me, which has a small cabin with wood heating stove and wood cook stove, a good well, outhouse, storage shed, and a sauna - and it is paid for. It has a pond with northern pike, a brook trout stream, maples (which we tap for syrup and sugar) and access by forest path to several good fishing lakes and wild rice lakes (which we harvest each year). It is also ten miles closer to my job, but much further away for my wife. It is surrounded on three sides by gov't land and is very isolated (not sure whether that is good or bad). The forest is (in different spots) maple, red pine, black spruce, aspen, tamarack, and a very few birch.

As to us: We are in our 50s, in good health, with two teenage college students living at home. My wife and I were canoe guides for a number of years when we were younger, and still do a lot of outdoor living. I was born on a farm, and spent most of my childhood working hard, and in the woods. I work for the county in a position which requires dealing with disaster situations, and my wife is a physician's assistant working in corrections.

I have a lot of hand tools, shovels, hoes, picks, pulaski's, two man and one man cross cut saws, broad axes, felling and splitting axes, a forge, hand powered drill press, carpentry tools, etc. We also have a spinning wheel, tubs and wringers, and a number of old fashioned things of that nature. We also have a number of old hunting rifles and shotguns and about 300 pounds of ammo (not terribly "into" guns - mostly inherited). We have a lot of snowshoes and toboggans for winter travel, and portable fish houses for spearing fish.

For transport, should worst come to worst, we have canoes and both our house and our forest land is near a very large navigable river. We also have three bicycles for the four of us. I believe I will purchase another bike this coming weekend (been meaning to do it for a while anyway).

For food, we have a lot of jerked venison and moose meat (75 pounds?), and about 400 pounds of finished wild rice from last year's harvest, and about 200 jars of canned vegetables from the garden (some of which has been there for a while), and about 200 pounds of whitefish, which we netted last fall.

Thing that concerns me about the meat, fish, and wild rice - while we've been harvesting it for years - with little competition - I suspect that would change in a hurry if there was a shortage of food.

I've been thinking it might not be a bad idea to do some clearing at the cabin and plant some apple trees (if I can figure out how to keep the deer and voles away from them), and at least turn the soil for a garden. Some of the land is clay, some is a very nice black dirt (by the stream), but I guess I should test it for acidity.

Just rambling, I guess. Kind of in shock. Wondering what it would be like to live with no electric or gas engines. It's not that easy to put up cord wood with a cross cut saw. I know, I did enough of it when I was a kid. Don't really want to be "back on the farm." Be glad to hear anyone's thoughts.

PG

Pops

Hi, PG. Sorry for the confusion, the original idea of the other thread was just to have a place to read about other folks take on the situation and have any comments made here – though it doesn’t always work that way Smile

I know when I first started reading about oil depletion it was pretty scary, I’ve come to a moderate – if not necessarily optimistic, outlook, if for no other reason than it does me no good to worry about things I can’t do anything about.

Sounds like you have a great place up there in the woods! In the (IMHO, unlikely) event that everything goes south you also have the distinct advantage of knowing what to do with it. Of course I’m biased in favor of anyone with lots of tools. Smile

Personally I doubt that you will have much competition harvesting wild rice, it doesn’t really seem the type of thing starving suburbanites would choose.

Obviously, as we’ve already tasted, the initial impact of demand for oil bumping up against supply will be economic – higher costs and job losses. It also sounds like you two have fairly secure jobs (of course, who knows?) and I think that is most important – at least you don’t work for GM!

I was, and still am to an extent, a small time, self-employed graphic designer. A great job, but completely dependent on business cycles – for the most part small businesses don’t make flashy brochures when times are tough. After 9/11, I started reading around and soon discovered PO and various economic doomsayers that made me wonder about our particular situation in Central California. That was a big part of our decision to pack up and move to a small farm we could own outright - or maybe just an excuse to do what we had always wanted to do Smile

.

Anyway, my point is that growing some of your own food and owning a woodlot is a good way to cushion yourself from some of the economic impacts of higher prices. And while we do have a fairly big pantry, I’m not so certain that widespread shortages (of any kind) are on the near horizon; storing food is just an offshoot of producing food.

A reliable job, as little debt and energy-overhead as practical and a back-up plan are the best one can hope for I imagine and you sound like you have those pretty well covered.
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Doly · Expert Joined: Dec 03, 2004 Posts: 4040

Pops

Pops

Great post Grey Lady!

I like to see people talking about how they are preparing to make do in town and you really seem to be getting it done, as well as being in a position to help many others.

Maybe you could pop into the urban transition thread- http://www.peakoil.com/fortopic14974.html with your questions and suggestions?
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GreyLady · Coal Joined: Apr 04, 2006 Posts: 6

Thanks Pops!

I'll be happy to take my plans and questions over there. I have already posted my wider plans over in the topic "planning for the masses (your good deed for the day)", so I hope people won't mind the repetition. As I said, the more input I can get the better.

Revi:

Thanks for the kind words. I only took a quick look at your site (it's past my bedtime) but laughed out loud when I saw your wood stove. That looks like a toasty little Jotul 602! We've been cooking on ours all winter. I've never worked with an easier stove.

Grey

GreyLady · Coal Joined: Apr 04, 2006 Posts: 6

Revi;

I took a much more thorough look around your site now that I'm bright eyed and bushy tailed. I grew up along the Kennebecasis (Rothesay, NB), so I'm familiar with your climate. What is the performance like on your systems? Would you be able to operate independently for extended periods? I am curious to know, because if I were to go the solar power route, I wouldn't be looking at investing in any more equipment than you currently have. You have a metal roof - are you doing any water catchment?

Grey

azreal60

Greylady, I'm so happy you posted. This is the kind of thing I wish we saw more of.

First off, congrats on being one of the few people who can actually say, she did something for her neighbors to help them out with peak oil. That's a rare thing.

Ok, on to what they can do.

1. I think the biggest thing that will carry a community thru hard times isn't anything physical. It's the community itself. A community that is tight nit and looks out for each other will survive when others in better physical shape will falter. Constant community gathering is key. Have lots and lots of pot lucks and picnics. Make communal eating something cool to do. Interest young people not by forcing them to go, but by bringing the things they love to do. This will be the basis of anything else and will help with alot of other things besides peak oil.

2. Shape of the land and types of buildings. Obviously the infrastructure you have is the starting point. Look for buildings that won't be useable, find the ones that will, and start getting focused on using the ones that won't be useable to improve the ones that will. Brownfields especially can be turned into gardens with only a few years of work, and most of them are right where they need to be for actual harvesting by the neighborhood. Lots of bike paths, work on getting public transit as much as possible, the ways you can help with your land are endless.

3. Education. Don't bother forcing it down peoples throats. Let it spread word to mouth by and large, but offer the resources for those that want to read about it. I've spread the word about peakoil to probably 1000's of people just by talking to them ( I'm a talkative guy) and would be happy to collaberate if you have any questions about how to start such a conversation.

4. How to get people involved. You do have to be careful not to scare them so much as to sound like the end of the world is ny kind of thing. It may very well be true, but there is no point in pointing that out to them if they can't figure it out on their own. Your job is to get them as prepared as possible just by showing what will make good sense to do. A good first step is gardening, a garden isn't That much work to start with, and getting city folk in the habit of growing things is a damn good first step.

I'm all out of good idea's at this point, pm me or reply here if you wish to continue thinking things up.

Edit:orginally posted this on the actual A and P thread. Opps... sometimes moderators forget to actually READ... bonks self
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Azreal60

Laurasia · Intermediate Crude Joined: Jul 10, 2004 Posts: 534

Spear: Congratulations on the (almost) completion of your home which you describe in the previous thread. Where you live sounds like Paradise, and I wish you well. I hope you and your cousin find the right person to complete your set-up.

Regards,

L.

Monkeyfister · Coal Joined: Jun 16, 2006 Posts: 10

As for me,

I'm a Government SERVANT (GS-11).

Save for a few thousand dollars of STULOAN debt, I'm debt-free (consumer-wise). I'm ABOUT to pick up a mortgage, which I hope won't bite me in the butt in the coming years, I've got $25K saved for a down payment, in my Bonds (G-fund) TSP Savings Account www.tsp.gov , basically, a Gov't-backed 401k.

I can borrow against that account, zero interest, as long as I have income, to back it up. Secure.

I'm going to buy a five-acre spread, probabably as a foreclosure, come October of this year... there should be PLENTY of them in this area by that time. VA financing. Secure.

My plan is to establish a Permaculture spread, with alll the Solar trimmings over the next few years.. Drop the connex box on the plot, and fill it up, until I can afford to have various systems installed...

NOT being in debt beyond STULOANS and the mortgage seems very wise to my Perma-Bear sensibilities, these days....

I want my money to work for ME... I don't want to work for my MONEY'S sake.

Tony B.

traz · Tar Sands Joined: Jul 11, 2006 Posts: 26

Hi, I'm new here

I've been reading the "plans for the future".

While I think it's admirable and fantastic to have the foresight to be able to plan for future events (something human nature doesn't seem to be able to figure out generally), and self-sufficiency should be something we all practice even if Peak Oil doesn't become the big catastrophe that many here seem to espouse - isn't becoming self-sufficient just half the battle?

You people, by way of your knowledge about Peak Oil, have incredible power! You actually KNOW about it. Most people don't. Why is there a chance of catastrophe up ahead? Because of our f!cked up, skewed media, NO-ONE ELSE knows about it, so they can't plan for it. So there is a large possibility that the transition is going to be very painful indeed.

Isn't it almost a MORAL OBLIGATION for all of you people (and all of us who know about Peak Oil) to do all you can to tell others about it, and help them plan for it? It's not just you that's going to suffer - think about the hell on Earth we are going to create for our children and the generations ahead.

And if there is a catastrophe, I doubt whether any of your self-suffiency efforts are going to help you. If it does come down, we are talking catastrophe on an ENORMOUS scale here. I've read the argument for guns and it makes sense on a small scale, but do you really think having a gun is going to save your life in the long run? Do you really think everything will be allright if you just help your neighbours and little village? Do you really think you're going to be okay with your fruit trees and your little vege patch and your solar hot water system and your water purification methods? "I'm allright Jack" will just lead to a lynching by the have-nots or even the have-lesses. Your goodies will be found out eventually and they will be taken from you.

Isn't "I'm allright Jack" what is getting us into this mess in the first place?

I'm on your side and I'm just as alarmed about the future as you are, which makes me honestly think we have to PREVENT IT AS MUCH AS POSSIBLE, by helping the general population plan ahead in any way we can!

Pops · Posted: Tue Jul 11, 2006 4:48 pm Post subject:

Traz, welcome.

Some folk do and some folks talk.

This is about as close as you can get to the doin’ folks talking.

Pretty neat huh?
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traz · Tar Sands Joined: Jul 11, 2006 Posts: 26

Thanks for the welcome, Pops. Very Happy

When I posted that I was having an initial panic "spaz attack" about this whole situation. I have known about Peak Oil for about a year now (Believe it or not, I found out about Peak Oil from two teenagers, half my age! Shocked

And when I first found out, I was once one of those people that firmly believed that we would come up with alternatives to oil in time. Embarassed

) but haven't really thought in depth about it until last week (LOL), when I became very depressed, alarmed and upset about it.

Since I've done a lot more research on the web, my feelings have changed a little bit. Thanks for listening to me Very Happy

Pops

Revi, I suppose it is too much to ask for you to post your comments here?

I thought so...
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gregg1961 · Tar Sands Joined: Aug 15, 2006 Posts: 20

I'm kind of regressing to the debt portion of the thread, but there is one intangible that seems to get overlooked in most debt discussions. Yes, in terms of pure economic policy it might make sense to carry debt into tough times, but it simply makes me feel more secure to be debt free. Security is, after all, what most of us are striving for. Doomers moving to the mountains or suburbanites planting a garden both seem to be looking for more of their personal version of security. Is basing a part of your economic lifeline on "if it feels good, do it" a viable strategy? I hope so!!!