THE OPEC Thread (merged) pt 1

dmtu · Last edited by dmtu on Mon May 24, 2004 2:21 pm; edited 1 time in total

I wonder if this foretells the end of OPEC
BBC
ITC
I don't know if you guys missed it but Indonesia was a net importer last month so they may not event be a part of OPEC any more (was it Simmons that said that?). Saudi has broke ranks and said they'll produce at will, meanwhile the others are at max output anyway. What are the implications if any if OPEC does indeed collapse?
EDIT: Here's the indonesia thing: Indonesia
I knew I saw that somewhere.

Cool Hand Linc · Posted: Mon May 24, 2004 12:18 pm Post subject: Good catch

Good catch! They have been on the decline for some time. I had not noticed: Jakarta

smiley · Fission Joined: Apr 16, 2004 Posts: 2105 Location: Europe

Still the EIA expects OPEC to add 25 MILLION barrels a day of production before 2025. Thats an increase of 1 mbd per year.
The composition of world oil supply: EIA
If you add to this the amount of production needed to offset the decline in the other OPEC members, SA probably needs to quadruple its production to make this fairytale come true.
My teacher always told me that if you tell a lie you should at least tell a convincing one.

JLK · Posted: Mon May 24, 2004 2:19 pm Post subject:

OPEC's core members will account for a greater and greater share of remaining oil reserves in coming decades; they will have their peak after the non-OPEC producers. This means OPEC will be getting stronger, not weaker.
The only thing that can weaken OPEC would be military force, as in what the U.S. is currently trying to do in Iraq.
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Pops · Posted: Mon May 24, 2004 5:34 pm Post subject:

The point I think is; OPEC can only be a monopoly cartel as long as the members adhere, within limits, to the decisions of the group.
If all the other members except SA are pumping full tilt, the “cartel” is basically moot. SA, purportedly, is the only country with ready reserves. We’ll see.
If the Saudis choose to ignore the cap and unilaterally produce above the quota, thereby bringing down prices, it is in effect taking money away from the other members. Those members, I would assume, won’t lower their production to keep prices up, but they certainly won’t be happy with SA for bringing their profits down.
I would disagree, re: Iraq style force weakening OPEC. Who posted the minister from somewhere “over there” urging his people to use “oil as a weapon against the infidels”? I believe he was referring to us.
As for non-OPEC and FSU production, IIRC, Campbell, in his most recent forecast, thinks they have already peaked.
I could be wrong.
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JLK · Posted: Mon May 24, 2004 5:55 pm Post subject:

Pops · Posted: Mon May 24, 2004 6:36 pm Post subject:

Yes, if SA only has what 2.(something) in reserve production left, we are in for some real ups and downs soon. Scary thought.
Scary as well, to think the stability “some” kind of organization has lent, may be eroding.
As far as taking over more countries, we seem to be having a hard time taking over the one.
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MadScientist · Heavy Crude Joined: May 19, 2004 Posts: 383

Regarding SA, they have no choice but to pump. They are a desert with nothing else to sell. They have a huge youth population and have heavily depleted their aquifiers to keep up production. They are a debtor nation as well.

OPEC is a relic. Politics and Economics can't compete with Mother Nature.

Silly humans Rolling Eyes

Cool Hand Linc · Posted: Mon May 24, 2004 7:31 pm Post subject: I did

Malaysia
I think this was from Feb. 26 2003 but I am not for sure.
Dinarfiles
SPEECH BY THE PRIME MINISTER OF MALAYSIA THE HON. DATO SERI DR MAHATHIR MOHAMAD
AT THE OPENING OF THE TENTH SESSION OF THE ISLAMIC SUMMIT CONFERENCE
PUTRAJAYA MALAYSIA 20 SHAABAN 1424H (16 OCTOBER 2003) 10.00 AM
The same idea was put forth. "Considering their resources." Not just oil but 1.3 billion people, economic, control of 1/3 of the worlds governments, etc.
OIC
snip:
41. Apart from the partial unity that we need, we must take stock of our assets. I have already mentioned our numbers and our oil wealth. In today's world we wield a lot of political, economic and financial clout, enough to make up for our weakness in military terms.
Here is a link from Malaysia showing that the former Prime Minister of Malaysia has made the statement again.
Here begins a newer twist. MONEY and oil as a weapon.
Gold Is Money
from The Straits Time on 10 May 2004
snip:
Now Tun Dr Mahathir Mohamad is calling on Arabs and Muslims to withdraw their US-dollar deposits from the United States, and to use oil as a weapon against the world's only superpower.

Pops · Posted: Mon May 24, 2004 7:46 pm Post subject:

Thanks for the link, Link.
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nord45ca · Coal Joined: May 19, 2004 Posts: 4

I thought that, according to Cartel Theory, all members tried to take advantage of high prices to cheat and exceed their quotas.
In other words, you should never have to ASK them to increase their production, like Saudi Arabia did. On the contrary, you should try to convince them not to cheat and stop producing more than their quotas.
What does that say?
Have we reached some kind of plateau in production capacity for OPEC members ex-Saudi Arabia?
Gordon Brown and John Snowe on Charlie Rose. Try to appear bullish but I don't know if they know about Peak Oil. They seem to think that you just have to tell the Saudis and non-opec members to produce more and they will...automatically. They foresee strong growth in the coming year.
Hope their optimism is warranted and that they have an idea about Peak Oil and its consequences but I suspect they don't.
Maybe nobody wants to tell them. Orthey don"t want to hear such gloomy stories.

TheSupplyGuy · Posted: Tue May 25, 2004 6:00 pm Post subject: yeah, that's scary

I thought I also heard the ASPO or Matt Savinar say that non-Opec countries peaked in 97 as well.

Pops · Posted: Tue May 25, 2004 7:11 pm Post subject:

IIRC Campbell just posited the non-OPEC topped in '03. Check Peakoil.net.
Also I think that all but SA are going full tilt, and SA has 2.4(?) left - just about what they are talking about raising.
I think this is the first time Campbell has moved the peak date forward.
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Pops · Posted: Wed Jun 02, 2004 3:23 pm Post subject: Home Pg. story: No OPEC Quotas

“OPEC ministers said they will increase oil production and prevent shortages, allowing members to pump at will and bypass the quota system that has governed supplies for most of the last two decades.”
Very interesting.
We might see a big dip in prices, as speculators get caught betting on tight supplies.
Or we might see the oil currency moved away from the US$ since it may soon freefall.
Or, we might get to see the peak through the windshield!
sarcasm Whoopee! /sarcasm.
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Joram · Tar Sands Joined: May 22, 2004 Posts: 33