THE OPEC Thread (merged) pt 1

Twilight · Expert Joined: Mar 02, 2007 Posts: 2971 Location: UK

Lying has been their default position since 1988.
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"The American people are watching the numbers climb higher and higher at the pump and they're waiting to see what the Congress will do." - George W Bush

idomar · Posted: Wed Nov 28, 2007 1:30 pm Post subject: Re: Cat & Mouse | OPEC Style

Tell people what they want to hear, keeps them calm! Have you ever had an argument with your significant other, or with some moron in the pub where it is easier to agree and tell them what they want to hear rather than waste energy battling against them.

The markets and the general public are the morons in the pub and OPEC are just telling them what they want to hear.

In the coming months, they can just say that they increased production, who is going to check?

Aaron · Posted: Wed Nov 28, 2007 1:36 pm Post subject: Re: Cat & Mouse | OPEC Style

aflurry · Intermediate Crude Joined: Mar 28, 2005 Posts: 825

hey now, insofar as OPEC is the only organization to put any checks into place to try to curb the rampant balls-out oil consumption of the past 35 years. we do owe them a little gratitude.
maybe you don't like their reasons for doing so. but the effect was beneficial.
people always talk about how oil has been too cheap, but then get mad at the people who jack up the price.
give me an O, give me a P, give me an E, give me a C!
yaaaaay OPEC!

BleakToil · Posted: Wed Nov 28, 2007 1:41 pm Post subject: Re: Cat & Mouse | OPEC Style

Maybe

Wouldn't OPEC always want to maintain some spare production capacity because tomorrow's prices are going to be higher than today's? If I was OPEC I would certainly give you enough to keep you addicted but also hold some back so I can charge you more tomorrow.

Have they already maxed out completly? Are production declines related to physical limitations or political and economic maneuvering? Maybe they started withholding more and more production over the last year so that they could look like the heros and suddenly increase their supply-to-market. Only time will tell but it's not obvious yet. I think once it's obvious it will be obvious -and only then.

idomar · Posted: Wed Nov 28, 2007 1:50 pm Post subject: Re: Cat & Mouse | OPEC Style

Concerned · Light Sweet Crude Joined: Sep 23, 2004 Posts: 1536

Well I don't think they are idiots. They have bills to pay and say what needs to be said to maintain "stability" and their job.
Basically the technofix has turned out to be a mirage now the only fix as Matt Simmons would say is conservation.
Conservation essentially means power down and shrink the economy ok who's up for door knocking on that election platform? Nah best tell everyone that more crack is coming soon, stay calm and don't panic.
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"Once the game is over, the king and the pawn go back in the same box."
-Italian Proverb

mark

Someone, somewhere once commented on the profit one could make by betting on the intelligence of the American people. Those of us here should obviously subscribe to this maxim and profit from it.
Everyone who becomes peak oil aware will, at some time, ask himself, When will people know? Just as likely you’ll come to the conclusion that most never will. The people are brainwashed, have been for a very long time.
Most traders on the floor have no idea of the fundamentals of the market they’re trading. They pay a small fortune for the privilege of making the small difference between the bid and offer. Their job is to push the market as far as it can go, up or down; the last thing they’ll do is stand in the way of the freight train of money the government players have. Mostly they go home each day flat.

What can you count on? The stock market is going up. The housing crisis will be “handled.” Liquidity will appear out of thin air to reflate the banks, hedge funds, and wall street financials. Life will appear “normal” for as long as the illusion holds. No one can know when the bubble will burst, it simply will and that will be that… game over.
For me, I’m going into real estate, this bubble could last a few more years...or pop tomorrow. Thanks to all who've aided in my own education over the last 3 years; so armed I'll be forever watchful, and prepared for (hopefully), the coming storm.
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JPL · Posted: Wed Nov 28, 2007 5:24 pm Post subject: Re: Cat & Mouse | OPEC Style

Tanada

OPEC says no increases

americandream

Strange article above. On the one hand they don't believe they need to increase production and on the other, they are unable to! Which do we believe?
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Bugger me, I hear oil's runnin out mate!

cube · Fusion Joined: Mar 12, 2005 Posts: 3574

zoidberg

Maybe they're depending on a severe US recession to lower demand sufficiently so they can reasonably refuse to up production, because demand is down.
And when(not if) some event either natural or man made takes a bunch of production down which leads to spot outages(in China, North Dakota, wherever) which damages economic activity again lowering demand they can can, quite reasonably, only get a portion of it up again, because again, demand is now down for some reason.
So 10 years from now, with the global economy sputtering in fits and starts, Opec can claim they're following production to demand, not the other way around.
Then people can talk about how to restart the economy, as opposed to feeding the economy more natural resources which will lead, naturally, to more economic growth.

Even further down the road as whole section of the global economy settle down to a new post-oil economy(however you envision it), then OPEC(assuming its members arent part of the dropped areas) can keep claiming its matching production to demand. All the while the chattering classes can keep suggesting solutions particular to their idealogies as the solution, and the people can argue pointlessly with each other about topics that are meaningless. This will keep them from asking relevant and tough questions.
That way no-one has to really talk a lot about peak anything. Because talking about ultimate highs that we'll never reach again, is depressing. People need hope. If people lose hope they become pretty poor consumers and workers. And that lowers profits. Can't have that now.
Now if only they could get everyone on the consensus train, we'd all be much happier. Quit pointing out the flaws! The 'consumers' don't need to hear it. It won't help them.
So what do you say? Gooooo OPEC!

Gandalf_the_White · Intermediate Crude Joined: Nov 21, 2007 Posts: 511

Maiar News Flash: OPECians are servants of Melkor.
We can always hope for something like this.
AP Newswire--'Opec admitted today that it has only have the recoverable oil previously stated and that the peak of their ability to supply oil happened in roughly May of 2005. They now blushingly admit that oil production will decline by roughly 4 to 8% per year for the next five years and then at around 12% per year for a few more until in ten to fifteen years production will be down almost 70%. This sharp decline is due in large part to the methods that were used prior to peak , such as steam injection, to try to maintain the illusion that they had more oil than they actually do. This skewed the production curve making the current situation much worse. However, OPEC ministers have sincerely apologized for several years of blatant disinformation about the predicament saying 'We are very sorry. We were scared that America would shock and awe us, take our oil and create a Middle Eastern version of Hollywood in Bahrain.'
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I return to you now at the turning of the tide.