Like the illusion of Wall Street, with its vast and powerful investment banks, now shuttered, China too is an illusion perpetuated by the Globalists that gave us the 15,000 mile Caesar salad, poisoned cat food and lead based paint on babies' pacifiers. Like the illusion that money would come from thin air to always push housing prices higher, China has spent a generation pursuing its illusion. Pursuing an unattainable dream to be like the West, while 6000 years of its carefully shepherded top soil blows into the sea.
Joined: Oct 15, 2004 Posts: 37 Location: Here, 10^10^28 metres away, and so on.
Posted: Sat Oct 16, 2004 10:16 pm Post subject:
I would consider the aluminium industry to be another canary in the mineshaft. When I did a course in International Environmental Law last year, my lecturer refered to the aluminium industry as 'congealed electricity' because it's so energy-intensive. _________________ Cheap oil is a RIGHT! Conservation is just letting the terrorists WIN!
Cheap hydro-power for aluminum manufacture won WWII to a large degree. _________________ A Saudi saying, "My father rode a camel. I drive a car. My son flies a jet-plane. His son will ride a camel."
Live in Arizona? Check out: http://sustainablearizona.org and read my blog.
Joined: Sep 29, 2004 Posts: 2330 Location: Pennsylvania, USA
Posted: Sat Oct 16, 2004 11:22 pm Post subject:
Barbara wrote:
To me, a good canary can be China.
I don't mean they'll be in troubles before us: I mean that they don't have to listen to UN, or to USA, or to anybody. Their strategy is only save their own arses and profit of other countries problems to gain power. They just do what's needed when time comes. Look carefully what China is doing, and you'll get a good picture of the reality... they'll prepare, no matter what corporations / saudis / opec are saying.
I agree. However, that was the attitude of the Japanese government when they decided to take over the world with Germany and Italy during WW2. Totalitarianism kills the human spirit and inventiveness comes from that spirit. China is hell bent on copying while the free world invents. That's what Russia did during the cold war, especially towards the end. It's a loosing strategy. We will need all the inventiveness we can muster in these interesting times. _________________ "That's the problem with mercy, kid... It just ain't professional" - Fast Eddie, The Color of Money
Major US airlines descend into loss, more bankruptcies seen
Quote:
Four of the traditional carriers -- American Airlines, Northwest, Delta and Continental -- leaked red ink, even after unprecedented cost-cutting to skirt bankruptcy in an industry-wide crisis.
The two others -- United Airlines and US Airways -- remain in bankruptcy with their chances of escape in doubt.
"The situation is relatively bleak," said John Ash, managing director of Washington-based consultancy Global Aviation Associates.
"It is driven in large measure by very low fares, excess capacity and very high fuel prices," he added.
Oil Prices Negatively Affect U.S. Airport Industry
Quote:
Nov. 3, 2004--The surge in oil prices and, in turn, jet fuel prices exacerbates the already difficult economic environment facing the U.S. aviation industry including domestic airports, according to Fitch Ratings. Oil prices have increased to roughly $50.00 per barrel today from $30.00 a barrel in October 2003. Commensurately, jet fuel has increased about 90% to roughly $1.65 in recent weeks from $0.86 a gallon in November 2003.
This is up from $1.26/gal from when I first posted this thread back in September. _________________ A Saudi saying, "My father rode a camel. I drive a car. My son flies a jet-plane. His son will ride a camel."
Live in Arizona? Check out: http://sustainablearizona.org and read my blog.
Engineers are far from developing any good way to lift a Boeing 757 off the ground or hurl a loaded Mack truck down the freeway without burning lots of oil. Because fuel is the second-biggest cost for both industries after labor, they are under intense financial pressure to adapt to what may be a new age of more expensive oil.
"We're stuck with jet fuel," which the industry burns at a rate of 18 billion gallons a year, said John Heimlich, chief economist at the Air Transport Association, a trade group for airlines. Even looking ahead 30 years, he sees no realistic alternatives for flying without oil. At the same time, he agrees with those who say the era of cheap oil is over. Heimlich said that for U.S. airlines to break even, oil prices must remain below $31 a barrel. During the decade between 1992 and 2001, the median price of a barrel of oil was $20, allowing airlines to pile up profits. Today, a barrel costs about $47, nearly 50 percent more than a year ago. "I think we'll see some price moderation in '06 and '07, then we'll resume an upward path," Heimlich said.
To help reduce fuel costs, air carriers are slowing cruising speeds, buffing out fuselage scratches to reduce drag, offloading unneeded galleys, carts and drinking water, as well as increasing use of single-engine taxiing and developing better flight plans. They would like to aggressively replace old equipment. Replacing an old DC-10-40 with a new 757-300 can reduce fuel consumption by about half.
But the irony is that today's soaring fuel costs are making it more difficult for carriers to upgrade equipment. Both UAL Corp.'s United Airlines, the country's second-largest airline, and US Airways Group Inc., the seventh-largest, are in bankruptcy. Virtually all carriers are reporting losses. _________________ A Saudi saying, "My father rode a camel. I drive a car. My son flies a jet-plane. His son will ride a camel."
Live in Arizona? Check out: http://sustainablearizona.org and read my blog.
How'bout a serious tax break and even possible government loans at low interest, for replacing older aircraft with newer (50% more fuel-efficient)?
This will also have a beneficial multiplier effect through the aircraft-related industries, i.e. Boeing and all of its numerous subcontractors.
United sought a $1.6 billion loan guarantee from the government, and was turned down. If you have read the above posts you will see that govt intervention doesn't seem to be in the cards. I think we will see a lot fewer airlines very soon.
MQ _________________ A Saudi saying, "My father rode a camel. I drive a car. My son flies a jet-plane. His son will ride a camel."
Live in Arizona? Check out: http://sustainablearizona.org and read my blog.
Looks like high fuel prices are hurting Chinese aviation as well. I find it ironic that increased demand from China = higher oil prices which in turn crippling some of there own industires(hurting there economy). This could be a repeating pattern across many sectors in many different countries as demand bounces up and down with the price.
Quote:
China Aviation ran up losses as New York oil futures surged to a record $55.67 a barrel on Oct. 25, partly because of surging demand from China, the world's second-biggest oil user.
Why are other "discount" airlines taking away the business from the larger, more established airlines and growing?
Perhaps its because they aren't paying their employees massive union benefits and simply slap you on the chair in the plane and take off, instead of the cash-holes the other airlines put their profits into, silly perks put in during the 90s that are completely inessential.
So I'm confused. United Airlines, one of the worst-managed airlines and corporations in the world, whose problems stem more from the unions bleeding them dry, is an example of the coming oil crisis?
[quote=MonteQuest]
The U.S. airlines have pleaded for President Bush to stop diverting oil from the market to the Strategic Petroleum Reserve at a time of record jet-fuel prices. Any investor will tell you that you buy low, sell high. Unfortunately, the government is doing just the opposite by accelerating the rate at which it's filling the SPR at a time when oil prices are sky high. Well, we know why they are doing that, the price is low compared to what it will be.
[/quote]
Perhaps you could explain the 30% drop in the price of a barrel of crude oil in the past few weeks then.
Quote:
The domino effect of job loss will cascade through the economy. If the government bails them out it will cost billions of taxpayer dollars, much like the S & L fiasco of the 1980's
Despite almost each and every economic indicator showing the opposite, including the Federal Reserve Board raising a key interest rate .25% recently.
But now let's take a closer look at just what all this oil is used for.
As you can see, a lot of the oil used is used for gasoline, in the United States and worldwide. The United States, as far as I know, doesn't use oil to generate power. We use coal, hydroelectric, wind, solar, and nuclear power.
In contrast, more of the oil in the rest of the world is used to generate power than is used for gasoline and such.
So, what can be done? I would say encourage more nuclear power use - copy the French! Sure, there's nuclear waste. But at some point we're going to realize that sticking it in the ground is stupid, and just jetting it off into space towards the sun is a lot better, or something.
Coal is also an alternative - at current rates of consumption coal can last us another 210 years. No "Peak coal."
You guys are being extremely simplistic here. There is more to world energy consumption than just "We're not going to have enough oil." If that's true, why? "Demand will outpace supply as production lowers." Okay, why? What makes up the demand? Are there alternatives to some of that demand?
As you can see, there are. A lot of areas use oil for power and heat because they don't have the infrastructure to use anything else.
If it's a choice between spending money, no matter what the cost, or the, ah, collapse of modern civilization, which do you think will be the choice? Converting the world from using oil for anything to using other energy sources than oil when possible could be the great public-works project of the 21st century.
All this gloom-and-doom stuff is rather premature when you take a closer look at the situation.
Joined: Oct 12, 2004 Posts: 1647 Location: Davis, California
Posted: Tue Dec 14, 2004 8:41 pm Post subject:
Actually, coal is more sinister. While we have TONS of coal to extract, the energy profit ratio of coal (EPR or EROEI) has been declining steadily since the 1960s. At these rates, coal will break even by 2040 according to Heinburg in The Party's Over. North America is riding the natural gas plateau, and by all indications, it is on the cliff side rather than the ascent side.
I think all the doom sayers are right; I've been a moderate until of late. After looking at the data and reading The Collapse of Complex Societies, I think it's going ot be rough.
Natural Gas:
The infrastructure just isn't there, and building it will cost tons of money (on the order of trillions) and consume copious amounts of oil. We will be even MORE dependant than we are now on foreign energy (most natural gas reserves are overseas, especially in Qatar, Russia and that bastion of democracy, Saudi Arabia). Gas to liquids assume that there is plenty of natural gas to go around. I don't think that will be the case in a decade, assuming we have invested several trillion dollars to retrofit our infrastructure to accomodate natural gas. While NG may be an option elsewhere, especially in countries that have the infrastructure, it probably won't be one here. We need at least 50 LNG terminals, I think we have 3 right now, 5 being built and 20 being planned. I may be wrong in these numbers, but I know that the steps are being taken too slowly.
Coal:
As I said before, if the current trend of EPR/EROEI continues, coal will no longer be an energy source by 2040. Also, most of the easy seams have been exploited or are being exploited right now. Much of coal extraction uses oil directly, in giant machines, which according to Heinburg can burn 100 gallons of diesal in an hour. The transportation of coal also uses oil. Using coal to offset oil depletion will consume even more coal obviously. 250 years at current consumption is ideal; in reality we have growth and if supplemanting oil decline with coal production is to take place, then we will run out even sooner. With growth alone, the reserves shrink to 160 years according to Limits to Growth : 30 year update. Supplemanting will cost even more and then there is the peak to consider. The question isn't how much (because in coal, this question is nearly moot), but rather how fast. How fast can we offset decline (3% is the conservative amount, 5-7% looks more likely due to 2ndary recovery being used right now)?
I don't think the American Economy will be able to handle these stresses, provided that we can't weather the storm right now with abundant everything. The dollar is falling fast and nations are losing trust in it as a reserve currency. Unemployment is fairly high. There is a risk of a large scale inflation and a stock market crash/disinvestments. The housing and retail bubbles are just about to burst. Imagine the consequences of peak oil or peak gas (which probably already happened at least on this continent). This is why I have already made plans to leave this country as soon I earn my PhD (to where I don't know! lol) _________________ Joseph Stalin "It is enough that the people know there was an election. The people who cast the votes decide nothing. The people who count the votes decide everything. "
So I'm confused. United Airlines, one of the worst-managed airlines and corporations in the world, whose problems stem more from the unions bleeding them dry, is an example of the coming oil crisis?
Because they cannot operate at a profit if oil is over $30/barrel. It is a harbinger of things to come. Companies with thin margins.
Quote:
[quote=MonteQuest]
The U.S. airlines have pleaded for President Bush to stop diverting oil from the market to the Strategic Petroleum Reserve at a time of record jet-fuel prices. Any investor will tell you that you buy low, sell high. Unfortunately, the government is doing just the opposite by accelerating the rate at which it's filling the SPR at a time when oil prices are sky high. Well, we know why they are doing that, the price is low compared to what it will be.
Perhaps you could explain the 30% drop in the price of a barrel of crude oil in the past few weeks then.
A dip in the roller coaster of oil prices. We are now headed back up.
Quote:
Quote:
The domino effect of job loss will cascade through the economy. If the government bails them out it will cost billions of taxpayer dollars, much like the S & L fiasco of the 1980's
Despite almost each and every economic indicator showing the opposite, including the Federal Reserve Board raising a key interest rate .25% recently.
Bet your money on the stock market, the trade deficit narrowing, and housing prices to keep going up. What news do you read?
Quote:
You guys are being extremely simplistic here. There is more to world energy consumption than just "We're not going to have enough oil." If that's true, why? "Demand will outpace supply as production lowers." Okay, why? What makes up the demand? Are there alternatives to some of that demand?
Simplistic? I have been studying these issues for over thirty years. My posts on the subject are anything but simplistic. There are alternatives to some of that demand, yes, but not all and unless it is all, we cannot grow the economy.
Quote:
If it's a choice between spending money, no matter what the cost, or the, ah, collapse of modern civilization, which do you think will be the choice? Converting the world from using oil for anything to using other energy sources than oil when possible could be the great public-works project of the 21st century.
Primary science cannot be bought at any price. And if it could, it would take 20 years to build the infrastructure to support it. Where will the money come from for capital investment? The US savings rate is at .2%, .0% after X-mas. We have borrowed 80% of the rest of the world's savings to fund our consumer binge. Looking for a world charity handout or Central Bankers bailout? Dream on... There are no techno-fixes for peak-oil and nothing that can be done with our present monetary system. Every dollar in circulation is money borrowed at interest from somewhere. All but the nickels in your pocket. No growth, the Federal Reserve Promissary notes we call "money" are called in. Oops! No money in the US Treasury, and China owns all our real estate via Fanny Mae. _________________ A Saudi saying, "My father rode a camel. I drive a car. My son flies a jet-plane. His son will ride a camel."
Live in Arizona? Check out: http://sustainablearizona.org and read my blog.
once the last baby boomer dies on his throne of garbage, SHTF.
grab your jocks and cocks , ladies, the american dream is coming to a conclusive finale. might take fity. doubt it. The last waltz.
Its truly amax=zing that some folks cant understand simple laws of supply and demand.
I say teach ecology as soon as baby is popped out.
The canaries song is almost gone. Look for some dead birds real soon.
Airlines' Woes May Be Worse in Coming Year
Quote:
With the six big airlines expected to lose another $5.5 billion this year, every one of them - American, United, Delta, Continental, Northwest and US Airways - has announced plans for deeper cuts in 2005. All told, they will reach $7.5 billion in spending and at least 20,000 jobs.
Quote:
Airlines are hoping for a reprieve in the form of lower prices for jet fuel, which rose 74 percent this year, to more than $1.50 a gallon. That could give them an opportunity to be profitable again after losing $30 billion in the last five years.
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