I think this is the beginnings of an economy based on perpetual growth and fossil fuel energy running headlong into geological energy constraints. Basically I see an undulatory downward path for the rest of my life. From here out, I think any rallies in our economic condition are going to be met with spiking commodity prices that knock us right back down.
Joined: Oct 23, 2004 Posts: 5928 Location: New Jersey
Posted: Wed Jan 18, 2006 8:53 pm Post subject: Re: The Proposed Iranian Oil Bourse
Excellent summaries from Petrodollar and Montequest. Thanks.
Reviewing Bureau of Economic Analysis figures, the US current account deficit had grown from $393 billion in 2001, to $481 billion in 2002, and to $531 billion in 2003. But as the energy price shock wave cascaded through the economy in 2004 and 2005, the current account rapidly escalated to $668 billion in 2004 and around $800 billion in 2005. Now in 2006, it may reach $1 trillion.
This is what an empire does - extract as much as possible from it subjects
(in this case, most of the rest of the world). In exchange for real goods and energy, subjects are given, well, essentially intrinsically worthless fiat money. But there is a very real string of miltary bases and when necessary, actual military force used, to maintain the status quo.
Posted: Wed Jan 18, 2006 8:55 pm Post subject: Re: The Proposed Iranian Oil Bourse
MonteQuest wrote:
Oh? I care differ. The opening page to my book, Madmen at the Helm:
Monte! Haven't seen any posts from you in a while. I heard you were seen heading for Monument Valley with a plastic bag full of peyote buttons. I was afraid you forgot to spit out the strychnine. (Just kidding)
Sorry, I'm afraid that author has a poor grasp of Roman history (and probably any type of history for that matter.) It reads like he just copied down fragments off of a couple of book jackets. Those who correlate Classical history to Western European history usually posit that as Rome inherited the Greek culture and ended the incessant wars between the Greek city-states, so America inherited European culture and ended the incessant wars between the European states. According the this view, the "American Empire" began at the end of WW2. The author of your book seems to be pointing to the transition point of Roman Republic to Roman Empire to suggest that George Bush is planning a coup d'etat of the US. Sounds a bit far fetched, doesn't it? I mean, even for this crowd.
Posted: Wed Jan 18, 2006 8:59 pm Post subject: Re: The Proposed Iranian Oil Bourse
DantesPeak wrote:
Not an empire? Then what is it?
Read my last few posts for a description.
Giving the colonies money in exchange for trinkets isn't very bright really. What's going on is more like a reverse Manhattan island purchase from the 1600's. Read Warren Buffet's recent comments on the trade deficit. It's posted in another thread.
Posted: Wed Jan 18, 2006 9:46 pm Post subject: Re: The Proposed Iranian Oil Bourse
Daryl wrote:
Chicken_Little wrote:
Just like Rome, it builds military bases wherever it goes and rules through proxies, levying taxes on its vassal states in the form of dollar hegemony.
Carthage was an ancient city located in the North African coast where the country of Tunisia is today. They were a traditional rival of Rome. From http://www.wsu.edu:8080/~dee/ROME/PUNICWAR.HTM here is an excerpt from a description of the 3rd - and last - Punic War.
"The harbor and the city was demolished, and all the surrounding countryside was sown with salt in order to render it uninhabitable."
That makes so-called "dollar hegemony" look like a day at Disneyworld.
I wonder what the citizens of Vietnam would say about that -napalm bombings were probably match to sowing salt...
I would say any nation that roughly spends as much money on military as the rest of the world put together cannot be all about love and roses.
Posted: Wed Jan 18, 2006 10:08 pm Post subject: Re: The Proposed Iranian Oil Bourse
[quote="JayBee"]
Euric wrote:
kochevnik wrote:
Quote:
This from the guy who reportedly owns 200 million ozs of silver.
To those of us who understand kilograms better, this is equal to 6 220 700 kg or about 6220.7 t. Now, that is a lot of Silver!
I make it 6,250,000 kg
A troy ounce of silver is 1.1 ounces avoirdupois so he just got richer between posts.
Yup, call me Mr Picky.
Not quite. A troy ounce is defined as 31.1035 g. Thus, multiply 200 000 000 000 x 31.1035 and see what you get.
Once the petrodollar system ends one nice feature will be a move to start pricing gold and silver in the units the bars are in, that is the kilogram. There has to be a lot of loss and confusion when converting back and forth between real units of measure and obsolete units.
Joined: Mar 10, 2005 Posts: 283 Location: Airstrip 1
Posted: Wed Jan 18, 2006 10:12 pm Post subject: Re: The Proposed Iranian Oil Bourse
Daryl wrote:
Chicken_Little wrote:
Just like Rome, it builds military bases wherever it goes and rules through proxies, levying taxes on its vassal states in the form of dollar hegemony.
Carthage was an ancient city located in the North African coast where the country of Tunisia is today. They were a traditional rival of Rome. From http://www.wsu.edu:8080/~dee/ROME/PUNICWAR.HTM here is an excerpt from a description of the 3rd - and last - Punic War.
"The Romans, deeply suspicious of a reviving Carthage, demanded that the Carthaginians abandon their city and move inland into North Africa.The Carthaginians, who were a commercial people that depended on sea trade, refused. The Roman Senate declared war, and Rome attacked the city itself. After a seige, the Romans stormed the town and the army went from house to house slaughtering the inhabitants in what is perhaps the greatest systematic execution of non-combatants before World War II. Carthaginians who weren't killed were sold into slavery. The harbor and the city was demolished, and all the surrounding countryside was sown with salt in order to render it uninhabitable."
That makes so-called "dollar hegemony" look like a day at Disneyworld.
You can assume i'm familiar with Classical History. A quick reference to the Punic wars would have sufficed. Good thing the Romans never had nuclear weapons, Agent Orange or Napalm, eh?
The USA makes the Romans look like Sunday School teachers.
BTW the Romans would never really have sown dozens of square miles of land with salt since salt in those days was worth its weight in gold. Think about it. it just makes the story sound better.
Then again, being American, you probably take the Old Testament literally.
Joined: Oct 23, 2005 Posts: 1839 Location: East of Eden
Posted: Wed Jan 18, 2006 10:38 pm Post subject: Re: Iran Oil Bourse
RonMN wrote:
Now if the iranian oil bourse is but the first...and other oil exporting countries set up the same type of exchange based on the euro (or any currency other than the US dollar)...well...how much value can the dollar lose before there's a panic sell-off?
_________________ "If a path to the better there be, it begins with a full look at the worst." — Thomas Hardy
Joined: Jan 18, 2006 Posts: 369 Location: Bordeaux
Posted: Thu Jan 19, 2006 3:51 am Post subject: Re: The Proposed Iranian Oil Bourse
I rather agree with HonestPess in thinking that an American "Empire" is purely an emotionnal qualifier, not related to geographical or political facts (not much land outside the US for an empire humm, compare to France for example).
The empire notion may be justified economically, but when examining figures, it's all the same much exagerated.
The US has a dollar stock which grows 7.8% a year. The GDP growth (wealth creation) is 4.5%. This means that there would have been dollar printing (money creation) for about 3.3%, and in that, I don't even count domestic inflation which is 3.5% due to oil price increase for example.
Conclusions:
- The US export inflation, but at a 3.3% (maximum) rate, it's rather a light tax for a nation which provide protection for a huge number of countries (sometimes against theirs people's will ?) from Europe against the Soviet Bloc to today's Korea or the Balkans.
- Foreign countries possess huge amount of US dollars (due to US trade deficit). Central banker or foreign businessmen are financier, they are not that dumb! They reinvest in the US, buying US stocks, bonds or real estate. If the US is an empire, it's definitely an empire owned by foreigners
So people who talk about an American Empire using historical references or vague philosophical concept should consider present economical figures or geopolitcal facts.
Facts are cruel
Posted: Thu Jan 19, 2006 4:26 am Post subject: Re: The Proposed Iranian Oil Bourse
Last night I was watching a documentry regarding ElSalvador. I would say that to say US provides protection is a far cry from reality consider what kind of protection is given and who gets it in what form. The matter in other words is FAR from being that simple and NICE. IT IS UGLY what is done in the name of Protection or Democracy.
In one of messages here a reference was made to Viet Nam and the bombings there. What about Agetn Orange that was dropped. That Is In Humane, it is as simple as that. Thus the talk of God by Bush just makes me laugh. He must be living in a different dimension and by a different set of standards.
Those Ten Commandments are good, but they are not followed. _________________ Men argue, nature acts !
Voltaire
"...In the absence of the gold standard, there is no way to protect savings from confiscation through inflation."
Joined: Jan 18, 2006 Posts: 369 Location: Bordeaux
Posted: Thu Jan 19, 2006 4:39 am Post subject: Re: The Proposed Iranian Oil Bourse
shakespear1 wrote:
Last night I was watching a documentry regarding ElSalvador. I would say that to say US provides protection is a far cry from reality consider what kind of protection is given and who gets it in what form. The matter in other words is FAR from being that simple and NICE. IT IS UGLY what is done in the name of Protection or Democracy.
Maybe because you consider only the half empty portion of the glass ?
Ask the Taiwanese, the Kosovars, the Coreans, the Afghans who were under the Taliban regimes or the Saudis maybe they would have another story to tell ?
But maybe you can tell me of another country with a better foreign policy ?
Joined: Dec 08, 2004 Posts: 921 Location: 145'2"E 37'46"S
Posted: Thu Jan 19, 2006 5:54 am Post subject: Re: The Proposed Iranian Oil Bourse
miniTAX wrote:
...
But maybe you can tell me of another country with a better foreign policy ? (than US)
Its actually very nearly all of them.
How many other coutries maintain military bases in more than a hundred foriegn nations?
How many coups has New Zealand sponsored in the last decade?
How much nuclear waste has China fired at Japan lately?
Don't think should call it the American Empire, most yanks are serfs, same as everywhere else. The US is just the current military gorilla of neoliberal capitalism, that is the real empire. Bush will go, in flames or not, the US$ may crash, or not, and the Empire will trundle on regardless (at least till dieoff).
Unless we stop buying it and get busy building its replacement.
Posted: Thu Jan 19, 2006 6:00 am Post subject: Re: The Proposed Iranian Oil Bourse
miniTAX wrote:
But maybe you can tell me of another country with a better foreign policy ?
You won't get a repy to that question. The critics of the US in this forum have no Plan B. But there are others - Islamo-fascists for example - who have a Plan B ready for them as soon as the US steps out the way.
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for a nation which provide protection for a huge number of countries (sometimes against theirs people's will ?) from Europe against the Soviet Bloc to today's Korea or the Balkans.
