Hoarding is exactly what the government is doing right now by filling the SPR, and frankly it's the best thing that could happen. It drives prices up. High prices encourage demand destruction. They also finance new well development. The hoarded oil gives us a buffer to fall back on once shortages become more prevalent. High prices are what we need in order to adapt to what's coming, and the sooner they happen, the better.
Joined: Aug 13, 2004 Posts: 1173 Location: Richmond, VA, Pale Blue Dot
Posted: Fri Jan 20, 2006 7:05 pm Post subject: The Difference (in countries) Between 2% and 5%
If we were to start with a global production of 84 mbpd and figure that the halving time( ln(1/2)/-x.x%) would bring us to 42 mbpd, we can figure average annual production loss by dividing 42 by the duration (in years).
This, however, assumes immediate decline at these percentages from peak.
So if we wanted to focus on the difference between 2% and 5% decline, we would see that there is not a whole lot of oil separating the two if you divide the loss into 250 kbpd annual losses for any given country.
1.212 / .25 = 4.848
3.03 / .25 = 12.12
So we see that ~8 declining countries (all things being equal) separates economic havoc (2%) and the stone age(5%). I'm exaggerating but I think you get the point. _________________ "If you are a real seeker after truth, it's necessary that at least once in your life you doubt all things as far as possible"-Rene Descartes
"When you have excluded the impossible, whatever remains however improbable must be the truth"-Sherlock Holmes
Last edited by turmoil on Sun Jan 22, 2006 10:32 pm; edited 1 time in total
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