We cannot drill our way out of this oil crisis. Since 2000, oil companies working in the U.S. have doubled the number of wells drilled per year.
Although increased drilling has added new oil to the nation's supply, it has not done so fast enough to offset the terminal decline of existing fields.
We are going to have to import more of our oil. Period.
Posted: Wed Sep 15, 2004 8:05 pm Post subject: A Culture of Quantity to a Culture of Quality.
Predicting the future can be an express ticket to the Hall of Fools, but here's my best shot based upon a lot of reading and just common sense. What the public certainly doesn't understand about the world energy situation is that we don't have to run out of oil and gas for life to turn upside down in this country. All you have to do is squeeze the supply, jerk the price, and all the systems and sub-systems we depend on will de-stabilize creating a domino effect that will clatter its way through our entire economy. I don't believe you have to be a cynic or a "pessimist" to recognize this. It would appear patently obvious. For those who question that assumption, I invite you to read my posts on this subject:
Since our economy at any given moment consists of sixty million people scurrying to the next "blue light special" to buy goods on credit made by people 12,000 miles away, we can expect some pretty far-reaching consequences. From what I have read, we are going to have to give up suburbia, Wal-Mart, and industrial agriculture. We will have to live locally in a way that does not require us to drive cars all the time. We will have to grow more of our own food closer to home. Small-town America will find themselves miles away from essential goods and looking forlornly over their shoulders in the direction of where Charley's Hardware store used to be before Wal-Mart came to town. There will be an extravaganza of default and repossession of homes and property such as the world has never seen before. With the recent easy and low credit access, people have been induced to trade in the equity value of their homes for lump sums of cash to buy SUV's and other "toys." We can assume that some of them are already in trouble with credit card debt. Connect the dots.
We will need to downscale everything, especially agriculture. It will be one of the first systems to fall apart in a world of higher-priced and less reliably available energy, and when it goes down people are really going to suffer. We need to change directions in a big way; from competition to cooperation, and from profitability to sustainability. Think outside the box; try to think of ways to not use more resources.
A lot of jobs and vocational niches are going to vanish--forever. Every "leisure oil use" activity and all their associated industries and jobs will disappear over night. Expect large-scale unemployment and a drastic drop in wages. In China today, $5/hr in a factory is about average. Get used to the idea. In world of greater resource scarcity, the salvage of existing material is going to be a huge business. A lot of the retail of the future will consist of recycled refurbished goods. I can see the railroad system of the US replacing the long-haul trucking system; more efficient and you don't need "tires." We will look back at the 20th century as the "Age of Manufacture."
The biggest question about these massive changes is how much disorder will attend them as nations jockey to contest resources. The downscaling of America is our agenda for survival in the 21st century. It implies a lot of difficult adjustments and even hardship, but we just may find a culture of quality and purpose in a world where a culture of quantity once ruled. Prepare for austerity. We will all be paupers for a while. _________________ A Saudi saying, "My father rode a camel. I drive a car. My son flies a jet-plane. His son will ride a camel."
Live in Arizona? Check out: http://sustainablearizona.org and read my blog.
Last edited by MonteQuest on Sat Jan 15, 2005 1:56 pm; edited 2 times in total
One of the reasons why society has considered itself "advanced" these past few decades is because the standard of living has risen and the life expectancy has lengthened.
Though I firmly believe life expectancy has increased soley due to advancements in the medical field. Better sanitation, antibiotics, and technology like MRI's and CAT scans to detect illness in the early stages are the bigest reasons why we live longer now.
Quite frankly, America is an obese nation. We can all stand to eat less and I doubt it would affect our lifespans any. Probably increase life spans for many by cutting out harmfull cholesterol and excess fat. Beyond that, it doesn't take much to provide the basics of of life.
Although your scenario has people living as "paupers", I really only think a slight attitude adjustment is necessary for all Americans to continue living perfectly happy, fulfilling lives without all the bells and whistles that the industrialized consumer economy has to offer. Just so long as we focus our remaining energy into the medical field, and provide a liveable existance to all men, there really should be no hardship.
What I see happening now is 1% of the population controlling 99% of the wealth, and therefore resources. Overcoming that hurdle will be the hardest part. As cheap oil become extremely expensive oil, I believe we will see a world where 1% of the population still live morbidly "obese" lives while 99% of the population starves to death, or the equivilant. or more to the point, I see 1% of the population directing 99% of the population into Total War while they sit in their ivory towers
I like the Saudi quote. But I think it needs to be updated to reflect modern attitudes:
"I rode a camel, my son drives a car, his son flies an airplane. His son sits on a camel in an airplane sipping champagne. His son will walk"
Although your scenario has people living as "paupers", I really only think a slight attitude adjustment is necessary for all Americans to continue living perfectly happy, fulfilling lives without all the bells and whistles that the industrialized consumer economy has to offer.
My use of the word pauper is a relative term. When compared to how we live in the US today and how we will live in the near future, I find it apropos, but your point is well taken.
Quote:
Though I firmly believe life expectancy has increased soley due to advancements in the medical field. Better sanitation, antibiotics, and technology like MRI's and CAT scans to detect illness in the early stages are the bigest reasons why we live longer now.
I agree totally. As the hideous diseases that once plagued mankind were laid to rest, life expectancy increased dramatically. Post-peak, those insidious diseases will rear their ugly heads once more. Mother Nature always bats last. _________________ A Saudi saying, "My father rode a camel. I drive a car. My son flies a jet-plane. His son will ride a camel."
Live in Arizona? Check out: http://sustainablearizona.org and read my blog.
Joined: Apr 03, 2004 Posts: 6338 Location: My Grandkids' Farm
Posted: Thu Sep 16, 2004 1:01 pm Post subject:
One thing I’ve noticed in the last months looking for property has been the tiny, nearly abandoned towns spread across the US. I had meant to start a thread on that but haven’t had the time so I’ll interject it here.
In the less mobile future I can see those thousands of towns no more than two days wagon (or electric car) ride apart once again become populated and the little cobbler shops returning right along with Charley’s Hardware.
Why were they abandoned in the first place?
Mobility. More and better jobs, restaurants, walmarts 60 miles down the road in an air conditioned Delta 88 is why. Bigger and bigger farms exporting not only 200-300 miles but all the way around the world meant fewer and fewer rural jobs and less need for local services.
When there is more small-scale farming going on, and a trip sixty miles down the road is a major investment, Charley’s may once again be viable.
Of course maybe I just hate China-Mart. _________________ Make a plan and work it:
In the less mobile future I can see those thousands of towns no more than two days wagon (or electric car) ride apart once again become populated and the little cobbler shops returning right along with Charley’s Hardware.
Yes! I have 212 acres in NW Missouri. When I was a child there were several surrounding little towns with Charley's Hardware, Joe's Grocery, and Bart's Tavern. Now, about the only thing remaining is the truck scales and the elevator. Many of the old brick buildings still stand on the abandoned main streets; the elaborate hand-painted glass windows covered in dust from ages gone by. In some places, you can buy almost the whole town just for the back taxes! _________________ A Saudi saying, "My father rode a camel. I drive a car. My son flies a jet-plane. His son will ride a camel."
Live in Arizona? Check out: http://sustainablearizona.org and read my blog.
We will need to downscale everything, especially agriculture. It will be one of the first systems to fall apart in a world of higher-priced and less reliably available energy, and when it goes down people are really going to suffer.
I would think it the other way round. Increased food production, locally, will become very important. Expect government to have increased control of oil, artificially adjusting prices so that agriculture is both (a) subsidised, and (b) gets enough of the stuff.
In the initial stages we can expect governments to try to implement reductions in oil consumption through taxation; taxing motor fuel much more harshly will push people to truly focus on increasing MPG. And if that doesnt work, yes, rationing. Expect large taxes on civil aviation fuel. A lot of aviation is pure leisure and could easily be dumped.
In the UK we already have different taxation of agricultural diesel. Dont know about the US.
Posted: Thu Sep 16, 2004 8:40 pm Post subject: Re: A Culture of Quantity to a Culture of Quality.
MonteQuest wrote:
Expect large-scale unemployment and a drastic drop in wages. In China today, $5/hr in a factory is about average. Get used to the idea.
In some textile factories in China, the going rate is $1/hr. Boohoo. _________________ Live quotes - crude oil, gold and currencies
http://www.post1.net/lowem/page/livequotes
Joined: Aug 13, 2004 Posts: 435 Location: Hiding from the All-Seeing Eye
Posted: Thu Sep 16, 2004 8:58 pm Post subject:
Grond wrote:
What I see happening now is 1% of the population controlling 99% of the wealth, and therefore resources. Overcoming that hurdle will be the hardest part. As cheap oil become extremely expensive oil, I believe we will see a world where 1% of the population still live morbidly "obese" lives while 99% of the population starves to death, or the equivilant. or more to the point, I see 1% of the population directing 99% of the population into Total War while they sit in their ivory towers
I don't think I will be the only one extremely p*ssed about this. I don't like it now and hopefully if more people "wake up" a collective uprising of "the proletariat" may happen. I think it's safe to assume that most people in America agree that big business controls everything; they just don't understand how deep the control actaully is.......but they will soon enough.
Sometimes you have to cut off a branch to save the tree. If things get bad enough I wouldn't think twice about doing some pruning.
I would think it the other way round. Increased food production, locally, will become very important. Expect government to have increased control of oil, artificially adjusting prices so that agriculture is both (a) subsidised, and (b) gets enough of the stuff.
You are going to have to change your mindset. Words like increase, growth, expand, subsidies, artifical, golbal, big, are going to have to be replaced with decrease, stable, contract, renewable, true cost, balanced, small, local and sustainable. This isn't about using technology to "fix". The trends of technology are what has gotten us to where we are..in a hell-of-a-fix. _________________ A Saudi saying, "My father rode a camel. I drive a car. My son flies a jet-plane. His son will ride a camel."
Live in Arizona? Check out: http://sustainablearizona.org and read my blog.
I would think it the other way round. Increased food production, locally, will become very important. Expect government to have increased control of oil, artificially adjusting prices so that agriculture is both (a) subsidised, and (b) gets enough of the stuff.
You are going to have to change your mindset. Words like increase, growth, expand, subsidies, artifical, golbal, big, are going to have to be replaced with decrease, stable, contract, renewable, true cost, balanced, small, local and sustainable. This isn't about using technology to "fix". The trends of technology are what has gotten us to where we are..in a hell-of-a-fix.
I dont believe it is incorrect to say there will be increased local food production in the west. There will be a need for it.
Likewise I dont believe it is wrong to say we cant expect govts. to intervene to push people into using less oil. So yes, in the initial stages this can be done through increased taxation applied selectively. Which has the effect of subsidising other higher priority uses such as agriculture. People will rightly expect their govts. to ensure that local agriculture and other essential 'services' get priority over fuel over, say, those people who choose to drive large inefficient cars just because they have enough money to burn and couldnt care less about others.
When crises strike we expect our governments to act appropriately, and to take control in ways that would not be tolerated in 'peacetime' conditions. E.g look at what people put up with here in the UK during WWII. OK, maybe an extreme example.
Joined: Aug 13, 2004 Posts: 115 Location: United Kingdom
Posted: Fri Sep 17, 2004 5:02 am Post subject:
fred2 wrote:
In the initial stages we can expect governments to try to implement reductions in oil consumption through taxation; taxing motor fuel much more harshly will push people to truly focus on increasing MPG. And if that doesnt work, yes, rationing. Expect large taxes on civil aviation fuel. A lot of aviation is pure leisure and could easily be dumped...
I agree. As a transplanted Yank I am, and always will be, shocked by the price of petrol "over here." It hits me every time I fill up and as a result, I use a small car, drive as little as possible, and walk the rest. But I am amazed how many people in our village buy these big SUVs just for the wife to ferry the kids to school!! There is a perverse tug-of-war between "I should have x" but "I want y."
Joined: May 17, 2004 Posts: 1966 Location: Democratic People's Republic of Washington
Posted: Mon Sep 20, 2004 10:18 am Post subject:
MonteQuest wrote:
Quote:
In the less mobile future I can see those thousands of towns no more than two days wagon (or electric car) ride apart once again become populated and the little cobbler shops returning right along with Charley’s Hardware.
Yes! I have 212 acres in NW Missouri. When I was a child there were several surrounding little towns with Charley's Hardware, Joe's Grocery, and Bart's Tavern. Now, about the only thing remaining is the truck scales and the elevator. Many of the old brick buildings still stand on the abandoned main streets; the elaborate hand-painted glass windows covered in dust from ages gone by. In some places, you can buy almost the whole town just for the back taxes!
Little Man
Sung by: Alan Jackson
I remember walking round the courthouse square sidewalks,
Looking in windows at things I couldn't want.
There's Johnson's Hardware, and Morton's Jewelry,
And the Old E King, and the pots they carried.
They're the little man. The little man.
I go back now, the stores are empty.
'Cept an old Coke sign dated 1950.
Boarded up like they never existed,
Or renovated and called historic districts.
There goes the little man. There goes the little man.
<Chorus>
Now the court square's just a set of streets,
People go round but they seldom think,
About the little man that built this town,
Before the big money shut'em down.
And killed the little man, offed the little man.
</Chorus>
He pumped your gas, and he'd clean your glass.
One cold rainy night, he fixed your flat.
A new store came where you do it yourself,
You buy a lotto ticket and food off the shelf.
Forget the little man, forget about the little man.
He hung on there for a few more years,
He couldn't sell slurpees, and he wouldn't sell beer.
Now the bank rents the station to a man down the road.
And they sell velvet Elvises and second hand clothes.
There goes the little man. There goes another little man.
<Chorus>
Now the court square's just a set of streets.
People go round but they seldom think,
About the little man that built this town
Before the big money shut'em down.
And killed the little man, offed the little man.
</Chorus>
Now the stores are lined up in a concrete strip,
You can buy the whole world in just one trip.
Save a penny cause it's jumbo size,
They don't even realize,
They're killing the little man, offed the little man.
<Chorus>Now the court square's just a set of streets.
People go round but they seldom think,
About the little man that built this town,
Before the big money shut'em down.
And killed the little man, offed the little man.
</Chorus>
It wasnt long ago when I was a child,
An old black man came with his mule and plow,
He broke the ground where we grew our garden,
Back before we'd all forgotten,
About the little man. The little man.
Long live the little man. God bless the little man. _________________ Here Lies the United States Of America.
Cool! I almost forgot that one by Alan! Good post! _________________ A Saudi saying, "My father rode a camel. I drive a car. My son flies a jet-plane. His son will ride a camel."
Live in Arizona? Check out: http://sustainablearizona.org and read my blog.
Joined: Jul 17, 2004 Posts: 480 Location: Amerika (most of the time)
Posted: Sat Sep 25, 2004 5:26 pm Post subject:
Hawkcreek wrote:
Don't know how I missed this thread till now. It is a good one.
I just wanted to add that I think in a lot of cases, having more "stuff", is just a filler for not having enough "connections". Most of us used to have connections to that "little man" Alan is talking about. We saw him every day, and in a lot of cases, he was us (probably not proper grammar). I can remember pumping gas and washing windshields for the same old folks at the gas station in my old home town. They knew my name, said good morning, and smiled. When they didn't smile, I wondered what was wrong. When I graduated from high school, some of them were smiling at me when I walked past with my diploma (probably amazed that I made it).
Our lifestyle has taken most of these connnections from us. Even worse, our strongest connections - to our own families - have been weakened to the breaking point ---- past the breaking point in many cases. We don't have time any more. That is the most valuable thing that the politicians, corporations, and constant advertisement propaganda have stolen from us. In the pursuit of low quality toys, we have enslaved ourselves.
It may take a total breakdown in society just so we can have enough time to smile at one another again.
Excellent, excellent post. That is so true. I know I would gladly be willing to trade some of my salary for more than my wonderful two weeks of vacation from a 50-60 hr/week job.
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