Posted: Thu Mar 27, 2008 1:18 pm Post subject: Re: Liebig's Law & Overshoot; Why There Will Be a Die-of
mos6507 wrote:
That's just one reason why cesarians are so common these days.
Yes, but the "ideal" age proposed is less than 19. By just intuition I guess the ideal age is more on the range of 20-26, less than 19 is simply too young. And wikipedia agrees:
"Women's fertility peaks around the age of 23-24, and often deteriorates after 30." Wikipedia _________________ anagami.net
Posted: Tue Apr 01, 2008 11:04 am Post subject: Re: Liebig's Law & Overshoot; Why There Will Be a Die-of
My wife was 36 when she had her first and only child. Both are healthy.
We have to give up on "ideal" and go for what is remotely doable. As I've said earlier the only way I can see of preserving any "right to procreate" in the face of massive and rapidly expanding overpopulation, is limit each couple to one child, and that only after the woman is at least 25, with benefits increasing for older births.
The world is already heading in this direction as women get mor education...and these trends should be encouraged by every means.
It is doubtless way to late for any of this to be effective, I fear. We are about to see major die off, if the recent huge increases in rice prices spread widely and prove to be longer lasting than a temporary spike. See related thread.
Joined: Dec 25, 2005 Posts: 567 Location: Hillsboro, West Virginia
Posted: Wed Apr 02, 2008 12:23 pm Post subject: Re: Liebig's Law & Overshoot; Why There Will Be a Die-of
dohboi wrote:
My wife was 36 when she had her first and only child. Both are healthy.
We have to give up on "ideal" and go for what is remotely doable. As I've said earlier the only way I can see of preserving any "right to procreate" in the face of massive and rapidly expanding overpopulation, is limit each couple to one child, and that only after the woman is at least 25, with benefits increasing for older births.
Sometimes the kneejerk answer isn't the right one. I propose a different sort of remedy to overpopulation, namely, war. Let us set our women to breeding babies hell-for-leather, raising all children with emphasis on physical fitness, muscular development, military training, and (of course) racial patriotism, giving each an IQ test at age 16, then sending them into combat duty for a period of 24 - 0.2(IQ) years, if positive, or receive a "procreation subsidy" of $200(IQ) - $24000, per year, if positive.
The land our soldiers take over will be theirs to settle, after their tour of duty is completed, subject to recall if their land is invaded by the enemy in the future. They will be set to work creating a new generation of soldiers for another wave of conquest, in which our race supplants other races - sort of the reverse of what Blacks and Mestizos are doing to us now.
One thing we must do, though, before we set out to reconquer California and Texas, is use our soldiers to round up the Federal Reserve governors and every member of their "advisory council," arrest them, and hold them absolutely incommunicado until they sign legal papers utterly forgiving the public debt of the United States, all endebtedness by the several states, and all private parties, corporate and individual, who owe any money to any bank. Or else we shoot them, and their heirs, and anyone else who might have a legal claim to money to which they have no moral claim because they never did any work to earn it.
dohboi wrote:
The world is already heading in this direction as women get more education...and these trends should be encouraged by every means.
How about... we don't educate women (much). In a world where even men don't need to be astrophysicists anymore, surely they must learn to be carpenters, masons, farmers, hunters and trappers, instead, and even more surely women can learn those home economics subjects like they used to. Tarzan brings home the meat. Jane bakes the bread. They take turns milking the goats until Boy is six years old. Then he does it.
Joined: Dec 25, 2005 Posts: 567 Location: Hillsboro, West Virginia
Posted: Wed Apr 02, 2008 3:19 pm Post subject: Re: Liebig's Law & Overshoot; Why There Will Be a Die-of
zensui wrote:
Jenab6, you fool. War is not a solution. We will start it over again if we don't learn to live within limits.
I disagree. We won't be able to "start it all over again" because there won't be any fossil fuels to do it again with. War is the right answer. Voluntary population reductions is the wrong answer. Why? Read Garrett Hardin's essay "The Tragedy of the Commons." He explains why voluntary population reductions don't work at the level of individuals. I've extended it to show why it won't work for nations.
Hardin explained that when individuals are asked to limit their family size so that population growth can be checked, some people will heed the call and try to act "responsibly." Others will be more selfish and less responsible. As the generations go by, the irresponsible and selfish people have more children than the obedient ones do, and whatever quality made for volunteerism in the matter of limiting family size will eventually be bred out of the population. The selfish genes will displace the socially responsible ones, and thereafter moral appeals to limit population size will have no effect on anyone's conscience or on their breeding habits.
A similar thing is true for nations. As long as technology exists, it can play the guardian role for a nation that restricts its breeding for sensible reasons of ecology or economics. Technology requires power (watts, joules per second) for its operation, however, and we are about to run short on such power (watts). After the power (watts) goes, the technology will not function, and the (political, military) power will shift at once to nations that did not limit their breeding and, hence, have large surplus populations to use on military adventures. It can be assumed, I think, that the leaders of such populous countries will notice any plums that are ripe for plucking, and the ripest plums will be the low population density rich countries that no longer have working high-tech weapons to protect them.
Voluntary limitations on population size don't work for either individuals or nations. The right way to limit population size is low technology warfare. By war, man provides himself with the eugenic predator that nature doesn't otherwise afford him. So breed them soldiers, train them, give them weapons, point them at the enemy, and yell CHARGE!
Last edited by Jenab6 on Wed Apr 02, 2008 5:58 pm; edited 3 times in total
Joined: Dec 25, 2005 Posts: 567 Location: Hillsboro, West Virginia
Posted: Wed Apr 02, 2008 4:10 pm Post subject: Re: Liebig's Law & Overshoot; Why There Will Be a Die-of
Ludi wrote:
Jenab6 wrote:
How about... we don't educate women (much).
Educating and empowering women has been one of the most successful ways of reducing population growth.
It really doesn't matter how or why population growth is limited. What matters is that not every group will limit their own growth. The problem is the "Tragedy of the Commons" that Hardin explained, except that the displacement occurs as the result of international or interracial competition, instead of the interpersonal competition assumed by Hardin's illustration. Again, it matters not at all whether the reason for a particular country's population reduction is educating women, or abortion, or infanticide, or the Carousel from Logan's Run. When the energy needed by technological national defenses is gone, as sooner or later it will be, then countries with small populations will be vulnerable to conquest by countries with large populations. Population reduction, by whatever means, is a fast lane to national extermination or enslavement in the coming low tech world.
Why is it that some people who can show a remarkable degree of good sense in some areas, can't apply the same intellectual prowess when the right answer is not also a nice answer?
Joined: Dec 27, 2004 Posts: 12015 Location: zombie horde wonderland
Posted: Wed Apr 02, 2008 4:20 pm Post subject: Re: Liebig's Law & Overshoot; Why There Will Be a Die-of
What "right answer"? Yours isn't the "right answer." It is only "your answer." Small, weak countries or populations will probably be wiped out in the future by larger, stronger populations. Oh well.
Later on, when we've gone back to the stone age, all populations will have equal technological ability, hence equal strength, and population will stabilize in the way it used to before civilization was invented.
Problem solved.
_________________ "...powerdown so soft and fluffy you'll think you're living in a pillow..." - jboogy
Joined: Dec 25, 2005 Posts: 567 Location: Hillsboro, West Virginia
Posted: Wed Apr 02, 2008 4:41 pm Post subject: Re: Liebig's Law & Overshoot; Why There Will Be a Die-of
Ludi wrote:
What "right answer"? Yours isn't a "right answer." It is only "your answer." Small, weak countries or populations will probably be wiped out in the future by larger, stronger populations. Oh well. Later on, when we've gone back to the stone age, all populations will have equal technological ability, hence equal strength, and population will stabilize in the way it used to before civilization was invented. Problem solved.
I suppose that if it doesn't matter to you which people, or what sort of people, the survivors are, then your point of view is understandable. Some of us, however, have preferences in that regard. And anyone who would have his own nation be among the survivors will have to oppose voluntary population reductions, since to advocate them is to advocate national military weakness in an ecologically competitive low technology world. Bear that in mind whenever you believe that you should write the pronoun "we." We who? That "we" might not include you, nor yours, if you make it a habit to insist that the right answer is merely another answer.
Joined: Dec 27, 2004 Posts: 12015 Location: zombie horde wonderland
Posted: Wed Apr 02, 2008 5:00 pm Post subject: Re: Liebig's Law & Overshoot; Why There Will Be a Die-of
My opinion doesn't matter. I have no control over anyone else's reproduction, or over anyone else's decision to go to war.
People probably aren't going to be worrying about things like population reduction in the low energy future. They'll be worrying about how to get enough to eat.
You're welcome to promote national military strength all you want.
Go have some more babies, while you're at it. _________________ "...powerdown so soft and fluffy you'll think you're living in a pillow..." - jboogy
Joined: Dec 25, 2005 Posts: 567 Location: Hillsboro, West Virginia
Posted: Wed Apr 02, 2008 6:32 pm Post subject: Re: Liebig's Law & Overshoot; Why There Will Be a Die-of
Even in the post-dieoff steady state, human tribes will find it wise to maintain a high birthrate. The tribes will again fill the Earth until it has reached the contemporary logistic maximum population, at no later than which time, they will begin attempting, incessantly, to enlarge their populations by the "takeover" method of warfare. This condition of life will never end, and the only thing peaceniks of those future times will achieve is the extinction of their own tribes after their more aggressive neighbors defeat them and take from them all that they have.
Joined: Aug 03, 2007 Posts: 3129 Location: Boston Suburbs
Posted: Wed Apr 02, 2008 8:11 pm Post subject: Re: Liebig's Law & Overshoot; Why There Will Be a Die-of
Ludi wrote:
People probably aren't going to be worrying about things like population reduction in the low energy future. They'll be worrying about how to get enough to eat.
Still, there seems to be no shortage of people in poverty who are worrying about how to get enough to eat and yet are continuing to procreate.
I have nothing against Catholics, but just thought this link would be most appropriate in illustrating the point:
Joined: Dec 27, 2004 Posts: 12015 Location: zombie horde wonderland
Posted: Wed Apr 02, 2008 8:27 pm Post subject: Re: Liebig's Law & Overshoot; Why There Will Be a Die-of
mos6507 wrote:
Still, there seems to be no shortage of people in poverty who are worrying about how to get enough to eat and yet are continuing to procreate.
They aren't worrying about population reduction, are they? _________________ "...powerdown so soft and fluffy you'll think you're living in a pillow..." - jboogy
Joined: Dec 18, 2004 Posts: 4122 Location: One Mile From the Columbia River
Posted: Wed Apr 02, 2008 10:24 pm Post subject: Re: Liebig's Law & Overshoot; Why There Will Be a Die-of
Ludi wrote:
mos6507 wrote:
Still, there seems to be no shortage of people in poverty who are worrying about how to get enough to eat and yet are continuing to procreate.
They aren't worrying about population reduction, are they?
No. They're not worrying about finding food all that much. Very, very few starve to death in The West. And the poor are procreating because starvation is no longer on the list of risks as it would have definitely been in the past. The poor know the state will provide for them and their children's basic needs so procreating more than they otherwise would isn't economically disadvantageous.
I remember a Hill Street Blues episode where one cop, referring to the poor having so many children, said, 'they're on a genetic collision course with the Neanderthals.' Something like that, anyhow. There was some truth to that remark. _________________ Everything is Impermanent. Shakyamuni Buddha
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