How then, do we move backwards? How does a society, with most of the people having no clue of future events, move from being dependent on a vast and intertwined network of goods and services produced by the indigenous people of whereever, to a local resource and renewable energy based society, and do so in the timeframe available (20-30 years using the most liberal extimates, 10-20 with resonable estimates, 5-10 with worst case scenarios), all the while prices on everything increasing, world politics getting more militaristic, governments continuously reducing civil liberties, shortages of goods on the market and weather patterns resembling bad Hollywood movies?
Posted: Tue Jan 31, 2006 10:17 pm Post subject: Re: Bush: "America is addicted to Oil"
The main thing that needs discussion here is ethanol from biomass.
It seems that Brazil has weaned themselves from oil imports in this way. Granted the USA is mostly non-tropical. But is there ANY merit to the idea that ehtanol from biomass (waste, landfill stuff, not the old Pimental analysis of corn) can mitigate PO?
Here are some probably inflammatory links to get the ball rolling:
"As that happens, says Vinod Khosla, a Silicon Valley venture capitalist who has become one of the nation's most influential ethanol advocates, "I'm absolutely convinced that without putting any more land under agriculture and without changing our food production, we can introduce enough ethanol in the U.S. to replace the majority of our petroleum use in cars and light trucks."
Can we have some serious objective analysis of this possibilty? I really don't know I am just asking. If this is false/PR/BS, please cite the up-to-date debunking links and studies. If it is a genuinely hopeful possibility, please list the best investment opportunities in this.
Joined: Dec 02, 2005 Posts: 6276 Location: Oil-addicted Southern Californucopia
Posted: Tue Jan 31, 2006 10:37 pm Post subject: Re: Bush: "America is addicted to Oil"
C'mon folks. Let's look at the big picture here. Dubya calling 'murica an "oil-addicted society" is a titanic step forward.
Nit-pick all you want, but this is huge.
(I think those who have posted about the true state of Iraq's reserves are definitely on to something. It really looks like we've discovered that there isn't all that much to be recovered in that pitiful, wretched excuse for a "country". They probably also know that the Kuwait information is true. Cheney and company undoubtedly are now fully aware of what is looming just over the horizon...)
Posted: Tue Jan 31, 2006 11:08 pm Post subject: Re: Bush: "America is addicted to Oil"
Can somebody please address the reality, or lack thereof, of the proposal to relace oil with ag waste biomass feedstock ethanol? (Not corn or sugarcane edible portions). Is it true that Brail has eliminated all oil imports in this way?
Come on! Yes Bush is an idiot, but these posts about him are wasting time.
Let's please have some definitive analysis and or links on the above topic, which was the ONLY thing of substantive interest in that speech.
Joined: Dec 02, 2005 Posts: 6276 Location: Oil-addicted Southern Californucopia
Posted: Tue Jan 31, 2006 11:22 pm Post subject: Re: Bush: "America is addicted to Oil"
MattSavinar wrote:
About as huge as a 750 pound, bed-ridden obeses person admitting their addicted to donuts.
But that's the first step, isn't it? Have we all forgotten that this is the guy who said a while back that the solution to our oil problem was more consumption and production?
The vast majority of sheeple in this country do not have the barest, faintest, most basic notion of what is going on, and what is about to befall them. Their reaction to Dubya's comment will be: "Huh? What? Are we using too much oil or something? Is something going on?"
It's a sea-change folks. Those of you who can't see that are really letting your doomerosity get you down.
Joined: Dec 18, 2004 Posts: 4053 Location: One Mile From the Columbia River
Posted: Tue Jan 31, 2006 11:22 pm Post subject: Re: Bush: "America is addicted to Oil"
About as huge as a 750 pound, bed-ridden obeses person admitting their addicted to donuts.
Best,
Matt
-------------------------
Exactly what I was thinking... and the doctor is telling him to eat cake instead of donuts.... and for technology to find even more garbage for him to eat.
What a disgusting pack of lies. I only watched off and on but in that short time I heard him lie about the US liberating the German prisoner camps... what on earth does that have to do with the state of the union anyhow? And I had no idea the USA beat the Russians into Poland.
Then he commented to the effect that immigration was necessary for our nations strength. I almost puked. Like increasing the US population is the solution for depleting natural resources. I heard him say later on that technology could find a replacement for oil. Oh yeah. I believe that!! I thought I heard him say something about Iran NOT being a democracy. I thought they just had a national election in '05. I also heard him say the US will win the war against the insurgency in Iraq. Yup, the situation in Iraq looks brighter all the time.
I'm sure there are many other outright lies vomited forth tonight in this 'speech', many likely posted above (I haven't read all the posts here)
Strangely most Americans will probably believe the pack of lies fed to them by the maniac-in-chief. In fact, his ratings may even improve... I went to my TKD class tonight and was kicking quite a bit faster and harder than before. I suppose I can thank him for that.
EB _________________ Everything is Impermanent. Shakyamuni Buddha
Posted: Tue Jan 31, 2006 11:28 pm Post subject: Re: Bush: "America is addicted to Oil"
Yes, Iraq opened their eyes, and they are afraid. Also, they can't withdraw, cause there isn't anywhere to go.
For OIL PEOPLE to RECOMMEND ALCOHOL is shocking.
nuf said.
now lets do the numbers to RAMP UP for ethanol to take over, remember ethanol takes1.6 times more to equate to equal volume of gas cause ethanol is a smaller molecule so you have to burn more of them for the same energy.
Ethanol can be made from 1 bushel of courn (that is french corn) and it can make 2.7 gallons.
40 percent is used in the manufacturing so since equiv energy is 1.6 tiumes that (We burn ethanol in our quads - great racing fuel with more power)
about one gallon of "gasoline" per bushel of corn
21 million barrels per day is 1 billion gallons of fuel per day which is
1 billion bushels of corn per day.
To supply the USA.
(No wonder they say MAKE IT FROM SAWDUST" they had to come up with an alternate source. Corn is not plentiful enough).
There were 9,915,051,000 bushels of corn produced i the USA last year.
that is ten days of USA car driving and oil needs.
so all we need to do is plant 37 times more corn next year as we did this year 36 times for gas, and 9 billion more if we still want to eat wheaties and corn flakes.
then we will be OIL FREE!
on ALKY!
EVERYONE MUST GET STONED
with that much alcohol being produced do you have any idea what it will do to the bear industry?
people will just get a straw and remove their gastank lid.
We will be like RUSSIA!
alsohol everywhere!
Will mellow the peak oil crisis anyway.
So Bush isnt dumb, he knew corn cannot do it.
if we use all our corn and all our wheat!
2.9 billion bushels of wheat grown in USA last year
so all we have to do now is use all our wheat and plant and we almost have three more days of driving UPS trucks around!
so all our corn and all our wheat will let us drive around for 13 days.
that means we eat cows instead of bread?
alfalfa can make alcohol.
The term pyrolysis is sometimes used to encompass also thermolysis in the presence of water, such as steam cracking of oil, or more generally hydrous pyrolysis. An example of the latter is thermal depolymerization of organic waste into light crude oil.
ok take all the alfalfa throw it into the grand canyon each year, cover it with dirt and let some water and lava cook it for a week, get some crude going.
we could make enough oil for about 20 days of driving around but the cows would die..
OK alcohol will not work, and it won't help more than a smidgen. it wont even slow anything down noticeably.
You can take all the corn produced in the united states and turn it to alsohol and it will have no more effect than everyone just taking a ten day vacation.
If we had 2 week vacations where no business was done 4 times a year, we would save 1 billionbarrels of oil a year.
this is the most immediate way to save fuel.
alsohol won't be succesful, and it is also unsustainable by any farming methods known today, we aare already short of water.
Interesting, when the WHITE HOUSE says we have an oil problem, then we have an oil problem.
Last edited by grabby on Wed Feb 01, 2006 12:20 am; edited 1 time in total
Posted: Tue Jan 31, 2006 11:37 pm Post subject: Re: Bush: "America is addicted to Oil"
I felt it was a huge step forward, especially for an adminstration replete with "oil men." However, I also thought it was a teaser for a follow-on speech focusing on energy that he is supposed to deliver next month. Coupling that observation with the usual SOtU cheerleading in a midterm election year leads me to reserve any real judgement until then. Based on the results from various academic sources (Pimenthal, notwithstanding) I am cautiously optimistic about the mention of ethanol from sources other than corn (e.g. switchgrass) and would like to see how he intends to make it a competitive substitute in the time frame mentioned. I would have liked the word "conservation" tossed in for good measure, but I understand that this is a political tight rope that he is walking. I was also glad that he didn't mention the words "tar sands."
IMHO, I think his raising this issue is borne out of political considerations rather than the spectre of any impending, geologically-based nightmares. Democratizing the Middle East has not occured as he and his cronies envisioned, Latin America is taking a decidely leftist turn and Russia is already playing political hardball with some of its resources. In other words, the supply chain isn't looking too secure for an economy that thrives on that black gold. Even he can see that it's time to start diversifying away from oil.
Joined: Dec 18, 2004 Posts: 4053 Location: One Mile From the Columbia River
Posted: Tue Jan 31, 2006 11:41 pm Post subject: Re: Bush: "America is addicted to Oil"
Interesting, when the WHITE HOUSE says we have an oil problem, then we have an oil problem.
__________________________
Great posting Grabby!!
... and the solution to it all is continuing the 2 million/year immigration pace (one million legal and another appx. million/year illegals legalized). I suppose when there are 400 or 500 million people or maybe even a billion people living in the USA things will get better. Oh, and technology will save us too. And investing the nations tax revenue (not) spreading democracy. _________________ Everything is Impermanent. Shakyamuni Buddha
Posted: Wed Feb 01, 2006 12:00 am Post subject: Re: Bush: "America is addicted to Oil"
Quote:
I am cautiously optimistic about the mention of ethanol from sources other than corn (e.g. switchgrass) and would like to see how he intends to make it a competitive substitute in the time frame mentioned.
Yes. The above is THE key point (whether it can be done, or not) nothing else in the speech matters.
Is the non-edible, waste biomass feedstorck version of ethanol feasible for large scale petroleum replacment or not??
Posted: Wed Feb 01, 2006 12:02 am Post subject: Re: Bush: "America is addicted to Oil"
Here's the best comment on it I have seen on this board so far (from MonteQuest):
Quote:
My best argument, that I suppose makes me a “doomer” is that the physical and chemical versatility of oil, combined with its high energy density, are such that no other known energy source can serve as a full or even adequate substitute. Energy density is the ratio of available energy per pound. For example: Gasoline’s energy density is 13,500 Wh/Kg (watt hours per kilogram) Ethanol, the often toted “replacement” is 7,850 Wh/Kg . Not nearly the bang for the buck as gasoline. The tide will turn on this fact alone.
But it it true that Brazil has by this means weaned itself from all imported oil? What are the implications if they actually have? Could USA do the same (granted USA is mostly non-tropical) ?
Posted: Wed Feb 01, 2006 12:02 am Post subject: Re: Bush: "America is addicted to Oil"
Odin wrote:
The 2nd Law of Thermodynamics only applies in a closed system; Earth is NOT a closed system.
A bit of correction for accuracy in your quote:
The earth is a closed system. I think you mean it is not an isolated sytem. 2nd Law applies to all systems; open, closed, and isolated. Entropy always increases in an isolated system, while it can be halted or reversed in an open or closed system due to the introduction of energy/matter, but only with and even greater increase in entropy elsewhere.
Quote:
The principle that energy always runs from hot to cold is completely equivalent to saying entropy always increases. In an isolated system like the universe, this is a constant. In open and closed systems, like living organisms and the earth, entropy can be reversed or reduced at one point, but only with an even greater increase in entropy at another point.
There are no free lunches. _________________ A Saudi saying, "My father rode a camel. I drive a car. My son flies a jet-plane. His son will ride a camel."
Live in Arizona? Check out: http://sustainablearizona.org and read my blog.
Posted: Wed Feb 01, 2006 12:08 am Post subject: Re: Bush: "America is addicted to Oil"
1 billion bushells is about 50 billion pounds which is about 25 million tons of organic produce.
Now I understand that the new cellulose high tech alcohol production is 168 percent efficient instead of 60 percent efficitn so I will say you will need about 8 million tons of organic matter/grass/day to make the alcohol required.
if your shooting for 75% replacement iit will be 5 million tons per day.
This is barely doable if we work hard
remember this is 1/10 the weight of ALL THE CORN WE HAVE HARVESTED last year.
This is about the only option if really gone for, that may take the edge off.
Amazingly the whitehouse figured this out and it is about as doable as setting a man on the moon in 1969.
If he gets his man off the moon and shoots for this technology, he may just turn into
(gasp)
the president that saved america
(Some my want to gargle quickly after this sentance.
But it will be true if he can pull it off.
and the Republicans may just win another majority in the house.
well, you know what, someone said this already, a lame duck prez in the second term is about the only guy who COULD upull this off.
Joined: Dec 18, 2004 Posts: 4053 Location: One Mile From the Columbia River
Posted: Wed Feb 01, 2006 12:10 am Post subject: Re: Bush: "America is addicted to Oil"
.......this is the most immediate way to save fuel.
alsohol won't do it, but no harm trying.
_________________
Actually there may be harm. Diverting more ever-shrinking arible land from food production to ethanol production will reduce food crops thereby causing food prices to increase and with the ever-growing population this will certainly bring on a food scarcity disaster eventually leading to mass-starvation.
There is no way out of this mess. _________________ Everything is Impermanent. Shakyamuni Buddha
Posted: Wed Feb 01, 2006 12:16 am Post subject: Re: Bush: "America is addicted to Oil"
eastbay wrote:
.......this is the most immediate way to save fuel.
alsohol won't do it, but no harm trying.
_________________
Actually there may be harm. Diverting more ever-shrinking arible land from food production to ethanol production will reduce food crops thereby causing food prices to increase and with the ever-growing population this will certainly bring on a food scarcity disaster eventually leading to mass-starvation.
There is no way out of this mess.
true. Excellent point, I was focusssed on the teknowlodgy there and not thinking of dinner.
long term it won't work you can't keep up this massive burning of energy it can't be supported. the land has only so much water and it will take more land to do this than all the farming for grain food in america.
Ok thanks.
I fixed that wrong sentance in the previous post.
the vacation idea is better.
BUT HEY!
Here is the answer. When you go to the store, you do not need to haul 2000 pounds of steel with you to pick up a quart of milk!
I mean, c'mon, we are the ones doing the wasting, right?
Why can't GM make a super Geo Metro that weighs 500 pounds and is meant as a personal vehicle? you could get 100 MPG and go buy a bike.
this is the only sensible thing to do.
Live like europe grow your food in the garden,
have a well, raise the shickens,,,,
oh wow, we are going back to 1800 again one way or another.
Last edited by grabby on Wed Feb 01, 2006 12:22 am; edited 2 times in total
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