Why trust Peak Oil Prophets?

Jonathan_Hoag · Tar Sands Joined: Jan 30, 2005 Posts: 34

I mean, they are always wrong. Like that guy from the FedEX commercial.

Campbell prophesied peak oil for late 1990s, then early 2000s, now it's 2008 or thereabouts. Matt Simmons predicted $10 gas for this winter because of Hurricanes Katrina and Rita and is predicting $300+ oil for the near future.

Given their track record, should we not just label the lot of them "false prophets" and be done with it?

sch_peakoiler · Intermediate Crude Joined: Jan 15, 2006 Posts: 555

they are no prophets, they are analysts. And no single Analyst on this planet is 100% true. It is not about believing or not - faith has nothing to do with this (or very little). If you go like you are suggesting then you will have to mark millions of analysts in all areas as "false prophets".

An example of what you right about 10 dollars a gallon prediction of Matthew Simmons. He could never expect that all wester states open their petr. reserves to offset for US production decline because of the hurricane? this was the factor which saved the day, but the core of the Simmons's analysis is that the supplies are tight, with no spare capacity left -and you would hardly argue that would you?

but to return to the "prophecy" topic - no one on planet - frelling- earth is able to predict the peak as accurate as you would possibly wish.

mididoctors · Posted: Sun Feb 05, 2006 2:35 pm Post subject: Re: Why trust Peak Oil Prophets?

I don't is the simple answer but the counter arguments look increasingly thin

you would think politics and economics technology would interfere in the bell curve. not least because manipulation of the situation and blind panic may occur..along with a zillion other variables

Boris
London

Karl · Tar Sands Joined: Apr 04, 2005 Posts: 58 Location: UK

Matt Simmons applies his knowledge of Peak Oil to its possible economic effects. There are so many factors in play here that predictions can so easily miss the mark. Had not the US benefited from one of the mildest winters on record so far the current base price for oil could be so much different.

Campbell's work is trying to etablish the peaking of oil producing countries worldwide incorporating the production of convential and non convential oils. The picture is bound to be fluid and having to be constantly reavaluated, though by all accounts Geopolitical concerns could mean that today is as good as it gets.

Like anyting in life you should question this and find the answers for yourself. So the 'prophets' are not always totally accurate, but the finite nature of oil is indesputable and at some point it will peak. The signs are getting very strong that it is imminent.

cornholio · Last edited by cornholio on Sun Feb 05, 2006 3:18 pm; edited 1 time in total

You ask "why trust the peak oil prophets" and fault them for being a few years off in their predictions (regarding a complex world-scale event) when the question could be 1) why trust big oil's promises that there is no coming shortage and no need to develop alternatives now (are they biased, a little?) 2) Why trust Saudi Arabia, Iran, and Iraq to supply us cheap oil and give us a 20 year warning before oil output decreases (are they possibly our enemy?) 3) Why feel confident living in a system that depends so completely on a limited resource for transportation, manufacturing, heating and economic growth without KNOWING that supplies are in fact as limitless as you want to believe. I think that it is up to BigOil, the Saudis, the Government and all other institutions to prove that oil is not peaking (prove, not just dismiss the idea). If they cannot prove it and instead offer faith that technology and new discoveries will come through in the last minute then we should be preparing for PeakOil as though it were imminent. Why? Because to not prepare (we need 20 or so years to develope alternative transport and fuels) is just too dangerous given our complete dependance. The fact that a prediction date passed does not mean the event isn't imminent, and dismissing the topic based on a premature prediction does not defuse the issue.

Lack of "certainty" was used to delay action regarding global warming... This is a similar event, in which by the time there is "certainty" it will certainly be too late to act...

cornholio
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“When one admits that nothing is certain one must, I think, also add that some things are more nearly certain than others”
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jdumars · Posted: Sun Feb 05, 2006 2:39 pm Post subject: Re: Why trust Peak Oil Prophets?

bobbyald · Posted: Sun Feb 05, 2006 3:02 pm Post subject: Re: Why trust Peak Oil Prophets?

This is a major problem for us Peakers, we have cried wolf many times and been wrong. Now that the evidence is increasingly suggesting that we are getting close we are not believed. We cannot adequately counter the disbelievers and so action will not be taken making everything that much worse when it finally arrives.

It’s like jumping out of a plane without a parachute.
We initially say “we’ll hit the ground in 60 seconds”…but we don’t.
We then say “another 20 seconds and we’re dead”…but still we fall.
Then we say “latest estimates suggest 5 more seconds”…wrong again.

You say we’re "false prophets and we’ll never hit the ground".

Let’s just watch events unfold together shall we?
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Life results from the non-random selection of randomly generated replicators

grabby · Light Sweet Crude Joined: Nov 08, 2005 Posts: 1328

TonyPrep · Posted: Sun Feb 05, 2006 3:36 pm Post subject: Re: Why trust Peak Oil Prophets?

RonMN · Posted: Sun Feb 05, 2006 4:19 pm Post subject: Re: Why trust Peak Oil Prophets?

I can see where you're comming from Jonathan. It took me 7-9 months of hard study on this issue (PO) before i realized it was true.

If you look at the russian gas supply just weeks ago...all it took was a single cold snap for hundreds to die (hell, it was 580+ dead in the ukraine alone).

You can see we're NOT rebuilding the twin towers...nor New Orleans. They may talk a big game but the cold simple fact is we're broke. Pay attention to what the news is saying...but pay CLOSER attention to what it is NOT saying. Eventually you'll see for yourself.

The only reason I haven't seen a $1000+ a month heating bill (so far) is because it's been 40 degrees in Minnesota in january (and my bills have still been over $200 a month). I don't expect this kind of luck to last forever.
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Quis custodiet ipsos custodes.

clv101 · Posted: Sun Feb 05, 2006 4:40 pm Post subject: Re: Why trust Peak Oil Prophets?

dbarberic · Heavy Crude Joined: Sep 27, 2005 Posts: 240

Because what these people are telling you is "directionally correct".

In the business world, you never have perfect information to make a decision. You wait until you have 80% of the answer, make a decision, and move forward. As you progress, you make updates as the other 20% becomes known.

Gazzatrone · Posted: Sun Feb 05, 2006 5:54 pm Post subject: Re: Why trust Peak Oil Prophets?

Phil · Posted: Sun Feb 05, 2006 6:04 pm Post subject: Re: Why trust Peak Oil Prophets?

RacerJace · Posted: Sun Feb 05, 2006 8:17 pm Post subject: Re: Why trust Peak Oil Prophets?

It's also interresting to note that the psycology here ate PeakOil.com is sort of reversed with regard to getting it wrong.. Out in the wider public domain the financial and economic forecasters are usually just ignored if they predict a major downturn that never happens. Yet if they predict great growth and prosperity that never comes they are thrown to the lions and discredited. This is IMO why financial forecasters are cautiously optimistic. They don't like to be barers of bad news but are more scared of beeing too optimistic.

Here on this forum we seem to focus on the negative issues materialsing. If and when they don't we often seem to be dissapointed and start claiming the 'cry wolf' fables. My personal take on all of it is .. yes a lot of the PO material is alarmist in nature but it is for that very reason I am likely to take notice and do my own research to confirm/dispel it. Others are quite likely to just go 'ppppht' and wave off the idea of peak oil and continue to live in denial.. I guess this is just their way of dealing with something they are not capable of comprehending.