I think this is the beginnings of an economy based on perpetual growth and fossil fuel energy running headlong into geological energy constraints. Basically I see an undulatory downward path for the rest of my life. From here out, I think any rallies in our economic condition are going to be met with spiking commodity prices that knock us right back down.
Joined: Apr 27, 2007 Posts: 4351 Location: The Great Sonoran Desert
Posted: Tue Dec 04, 2007 11:56 am Post subject: Re: Housing Boom Officially Over - Collapse Imminent
Eli wrote:
I won't save them all but I hope I do what I can.
The book of Matthew
34 Then shall the King say unto them on his right hand, Come, ye blessed of my Father, inherit the kingdom prepared for you from the foundation of the world:
35 For I was an hungred, and ye gave me meat: I was thirsty, and ye gave me drink: I was a stranger, and ye took me in:
36 Naked, and ye clothed me: I was sick, and ye visited me: I was in prison, and ye came unto me.
37 Then shall the righteous answer him, saying, Lord, when saw we thee an hungred, and fed thee? or thirsty, and gave thee drink?
38 When saw we thee a stranger, and took thee in? or naked, and clothed thee?
39 Or when saw we thee sick, or in prison, and came unto thee?
40 And the King shall answer and say unto them, Verily I say unto you, Inasmuch as ye have done it unto one of the least of these my brethren, ye have done it unto me.
Peddle your bullshit somewhere else...
Quote:
Genesis 9:7 Be fruitful and multiply. Bring forth abundantly in the earth, and multiply in it."
Guess you are still having kids...eh Eli?...or have you stepped to the "dark side".
Good grief. _________________ "There must be a bogeyman; there always is, and it cannot be something as esoteric as "resource depletion." You can't go to war with that." Emersonbiggins
"... hope is a rotten-thighed whore" Niko Kazantzakis
Posted: Tue Dec 04, 2007 12:07 pm Post subject: Re: Housing Boom Officially Over - Collapse Imminent
Eli wrote:
This so called plan by Paulson is nothing, and will create as many problems as it solves.
What I can't figure out is if the bonds are going to pay the home"owners" a stipend directly, a la the FEMA debit card racket, or pay the banks to keep interest rates artificially low for the borrowers. It seems like it would be easier to have Fannie Mae blow up to 3-4x its current size to subsidize new, artificially low-rate mortgages using money they we don't have. Hey, it works for warmongering.
It all spells doom in the end, though. _________________ "It's called the American Dream because you'd have to be asleep to believe it."
Joined: Jul 17, 2004 Posts: 490 Location: Amerika (most of the time)
Posted: Tue Dec 04, 2007 12:49 pm Post subject: Re: Housing Boom Officially Over - Collapse Imminent
OK WTF is up with this. I bank with Citi and these jackasses have just sent out this note.
Quote:
Dear Customer:
On December 20, 2007, the User Agreement for Inter Institution
Transfers will change. Here what's changing:
After a review of our security practices, the daily limit on Outgoing
Standard (3-day) transfers was changed temporarily to $2,000 on October 30, 2007. That $2,000 limit will be made permanent with this upcoming change to the User Agreement.
This smells awfully strange to me and kind of sucks for me because I transfer money to my other accounts at other banks regularly. Am I being paranoid or should I be concerned about my little pittance at Citi? _________________ Simon's Law: Everything put together falls apart sooner or later.
I don't think of all the misery, but of all the beauty that still remains.--Anne Frank
Joined: Jun 18, 2005 Posts: 3970 Location: In a van down by the river
Posted: Tue Dec 04, 2007 12:49 pm Post subject: Re: Housing Boom Officially Over - Collapse Imminent
you have two small kids yourself don't you Roc?
I am not trying to peddle BS, and I am not one of those people who is attempting to save souls through the internet.
I hear what you are saying about protecting your family and I agree with that 100%.
But lets drop it and get back on subject.
Edit that Paulson deal is FUBAR from the word go he is asking municipalities to float bonds just as the worst housing collapse since the GD gets started.
It is a recipe for magnifying the collapse, Muni's will be under increasing pressure for all kinds of services as we turn into steep recession, they will be horribly strapped, this plan just gives them more rope to hang themselves.
That Citi info is suspicious just like how Wells Fargo had a major banking outage when this whole mess got going in August. I can tell you I wouldn't be banking with Citi right now, you could be depending on FDIC bailout and I don't trust that.
Joined: Mar 18, 2005 Posts: 2691 Location: Minnesota
Posted: Tue Dec 04, 2007 1:44 pm Post subject: Re: Housing Boom Officially Over - Collapse Imminent
Munis are already getting scarry. If these bond insurers (who insure municipal bonds) go down the drain, then the muni bonds will get a ratings cut & who knows if you'll be able to sell them at that point.
Hell, ACA stock is at a whoppin' 51 cents right now _________________ Quis custodiet ipsos custodes.
Joined: Mar 12, 2007 Posts: 1008 Location: As close as I can get to the beginning of the pipe.
Posted: Tue Dec 04, 2007 3:47 pm Post subject: Re: Housing Boom Officially Over - Collapse Imminent
Big RC, if I were in your shoes, I would remove my funds from Citi toot sweet. I'm not sure what that means, but it sounds like trouble is getting ready to visit your accounts.
Here's one of the first indications in the MSM that our problems in Housing are related the end of growth and contraction related to peak oil rather than economic changes related to bad mortgage underwriting.
Quote:
"The recent spike in home foreclosures in Massachusetts is caused primarily by falling housing prices, and not by rising mortgage payments, according to research released yesterday by the Federal Reserve Bank of Boston."
Joined: Jun 18, 2005 Posts: 3970 Location: In a van down by the river
Posted: Tue Dec 04, 2007 3:53 pm Post subject: Re: Housing Boom Officially Over - Collapse Imminent
To all those that have Banking accounts with Citi there is cause to be concerned about your money.
If you have a large savings account taking some precautions might be worth it.
First that little reduction in online wire transfers is legitimate and slightly worrying.
They are desperately trying to raise cash, there is that Dubai deal that is at a loan shark rate.
They are selling assets to raise even more capital.
Quote:
Citigroup Sells 2 Manhattan Buildings To SL Green For $1.6 Billion
December 03, 2007: 06:02 PM EST
NEW YORK -(Dow Jones)- Citigroup Inc. (C) agreed to sell two downtown Manhattan office buildings to SL Green Realty Corp. (SLG) for about $1.58 billion, the companies said Monday.
FSA tells UK mortgage lenders to prepare for a wave of defaults and difficulties obtaining funding. _________________ Volatility. When life isn't exciting enough.
Joined: Apr 27, 2007 Posts: 4351 Location: The Great Sonoran Desert
Posted: Tue Dec 04, 2007 6:18 pm Post subject: Re: Housing Boom Officially Over - Collapse Imminent
Eli wrote:
you have two small kids yourself don't you Roc?
I am not trying to peddle BS, and I am not one of those people who is attempting to save souls through the internet.
I hear what you are saying about protecting your family and I agree with that 100%.
But lets drop it and get back on subject.
Ok dropped.
My point was that if someone in need asks I may be in the position to help.
It is because I have two kids that I will not stand for someone stealing my food...period.
It can be no other way.
Now back to our regular scheduled program. _________________ "There must be a bogeyman; there always is, and it cannot be something as esoteric as "resource depletion." You can't go to war with that." Emersonbiggins
"... hope is a rotten-thighed whore" Niko Kazantzakis
Joined: Aug 11, 2005 Posts: 252 Location: Vancouver, BC
Posted: Tue Dec 04, 2007 6:56 pm Post subject: Re: Housing Boom Officially Over - Collapse Imminent
Quote:
At least in the US, it is no longer made, nor do we have the machinery (or the skills) with which to make much of the essential industrial equipment that we use and need.
The argument that we don't have the machinery is ridiculous. Do you actually know inventory levels of equipment and machinery in the US or are you just stating an opinion? Here in Canada, we have ALOT of factories sitting idle with a whole lot of equipment available for reallocation. I wish I could remember which latin country it was that had a financial crisis (saw the documentary at the film festival). The banks closed one day and they couldn't withdraw their money. The citizens ended up raiding the closed factories, salvaging the materials and creating their own cooperative factories. There is a lesson to be learned from that. It is amazing what they recycle and reuse in latin countries.
As to the "know how" - give me BREAK! For goodness sake, I'm a 35 yr old who has worked in offices my whole life - but guess what? I can operate a machine press, a lathe, etc. Its not that hard. My soldering isn't bad either. For a grade 5 science project, I made an operational circuit board out of recycled materials. As a woman, I rarely get the opportunity to flex those creative muscles but I'm sure I could in time of need. There are plenty of men out there who can and do better than that. Don't underestimate us.
My mother grew up on a farm so I'm sure she could teach me the "old ways" on food growth.
The knowledge still exists - the ppl and resources have been reallocated to service sector jobs but they are still part of our society.
I still believe things will continue to deteriorate...but I don't think its quite as bad as you would have us believe. It took the Romans centuries to completely fall and I see the same thing happening to us. In fact, the senate arguments that raged on about growth have eerie similarities to growth arguments and climate change debates happening now. Have we learned anything from that? Probably not
Posted: Tue Dec 04, 2007 7:16 pm Post subject: Re: Housing Boom Officially Over - Collapse Imminent
Twilight said:
Quote:
FSA tells UK mortgage lenders to prepare for a wave of defaults and difficulties obtaining funding.
That translates to everyone having difficulty obtaining funding. Corporations, local governments, pension funds, individuals and etc. This translates to hard economic times ahead on both sides of the pond, and perhaps a total monetary/financial rout.
It is not hard to read between the lines on this one. It is stated in bold faced caps.
I know there ain’t no heaven, and I pray there ain’t no hell! Blood, Sweat and Tears
Joined: Mar 12, 2007 Posts: 1008 Location: As close as I can get to the beginning of the pipe.
Posted: Tue Dec 04, 2007 7:42 pm Post subject: Re: Housing Boom Officially Over - Collapse Imminent
We keep coming back to the magic date of 1970 as the turning point for when our economic problems started here in the US. So why is 1970 the magic number, Robert Reich? Reich describes the coping mechanisms well, but doesn't connect them with the underlying reason for the failure of the middle class since 1970.
Quote:
"In short, it's the economy, stupid -- but not just the current slowdown. The underlying problem began around 1970. And any presidential candidate seeking to address it will have to think bigger than stimulating the economy with tax cuts or spending increases."
It's actually not about the economy, Reich. You need to think larger scale. You totally missed it, just as Clinton did. It's about the energy, dummy.
Posted: Tue Dec 04, 2007 7:43 pm Post subject: Re: Housing Boom Officially Over - Collapse Imminent
FairMaiden, any manufacturing the US has now, it may not have ten years into a cataclysmic economic collapse, should one occur.
It is a case of "use it or lose it."
It doesn't matter what it is. Ten years idle and in most cases it's good for nothing but scrap. Considerably less if left unsecured.
The outcome can only be different if such assets are recognised as critically important through foresight. Someone has to have the foresight to save it many years before it is needed again. It didn't happen in the Soviet Union, and there are post-Thatcher dead industrial zones scattered throughout the UK where you can see the same thing. Skills left unexercised disappeared on the same timescale. Post-collapse, retooling and retraining is going to go to whoever has a heavy manufacturing base left unscathed unless the affected countries recognise the problem for what it is and get their crap together immediately.
If there is a sudden collapse and you are the fortunate owner of a stack of cash, you can put your money where your mouth is by buying a bankrupt machine tool factory or a workshop with a capacity for a wide range of metalwork and turning it into a going concern. You might have to sit on it for a decade and absorb the costs of protecting it before there is demand. In the meantime residual demand will be met by scavenging of existing inventory. If conservation of primary (ie tool) manufacturing is not done on a large scale by either government or private individuals, then you lose it forever and have to pay foreigners to get it back.
Your argument is not the default outcome, it requires an appropriate response. The default outcome is entropy. Believe me, there is no shortage of places in the here and now where you can go look and see for yourself. _________________ Volatility. When life isn't exciting enough.
Posted: Tue Dec 04, 2007 7:55 pm Post subject: Re: Housing Boom Officially Over - Collapse Imminent
FairMaiden said:
Quote:
The argument that we don't have the machinery is ridiculous.
A CAT D9 dozer has one part made in the US, the engine. The tracks are made in Japan, the undercarrage in South Korea and all the hoses in China. An M1 Abrams tank has the engine made in the US, the gun turrent, the tracks, the gun barrel and the electronics are made in other countries. The US makes nothing, it assembles, and that includes the vast majority of our weapons.
So you can run a lathe; can you cut threads, could you mill a crack shaft, or run out a 6 foot tapered spline to a 10,000 ths? You would have a hard time finding many milling machines or engine lathes in the US that could that - to say nothing of someone who could actually do it.
Could you make the casting patterns for a 4 foot helically rotating cutter blade, and then machine it? I knew the people who did know. They are gone, their factory is gone and skills that took them a life time to acquire are gone. They are a few of many and much that has left us.
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