Posted: Tue Mar 07, 2006 1:08 pm Post subject: Re: Housing Boom Officially Over - Collapse Imminent
This is what Im doing in my neck of the woods just to get some ideas out there.
The market here will hold out for another 24 months because the current govt wants to stay where they are in the next elections.After that I dont know what can happen.
I put a house in the city up for sale and hope to dump it fast.I dont think there is a better time and I hope its not too late.
The money from that goes to precious metals for a while.Then I shall see. _________________ ΜΟΛΩΝ-ΛΑΒΕ
Joined: Oct 12, 2004 Posts: 945 Location: Giant Pickup Truck Country
Posted: Tue Mar 07, 2006 1:15 pm Post subject: Re: Housing Boom Officially Over - Collapse Imminent
JoeCoal wrote:
Hey, what's everybody so worried about?
According to this guy, there IS NO Housing bubble...
Ever get the feeling that Bernanke is the clueless scapegoat installed to take the blame for the inevitable consequences of Greenspan's policies? _________________ The knowledge to survive post peak will not come from our laboratories. It will come from our museums.
Posted: Tue Mar 07, 2006 1:24 pm Post subject: Re: Housing Boom Officially Over - Collapse Imminent
There are some areas where the housing boom is still going on. I live in south Florida, and prices are still going up here. I invested in one lot that is part of a new subdivision in Sebring, Florida. Purchased in June 05 for $36,500. Comparables are selling right now for $55-60,000. If it is sold this summer, it will easily get $60,000, maybe more.
I don't live there, I live in Fort Lauderdale. The value of my home has gone up easy 20% from last March until now.
There is still money out there, looking for a place to buy. It's just trickling away from Everytown, USA, and flowing toward the hot spots. A lot of the baby boomers want to live in the warmer parts of CA, or in south Florida. The warm weather and ocean breezes are good for their rheumatoid arthritis. So, they and their millions are fighting for condos and houses in these areas.
My point is just that the entire bubble isn't popping. Rates have been so ridiculously low for so friggin' long, that everyone and the janitor have all bought homes. The market is saturated. You still see price growth in desirable areas, but the rest of the market is slowing down because 1. everyone who is marginally qualified has a house; 2. the barriers to entry are going up (rates are rising).
The bubble won't actually burst on it's own; something else will pop it. It was said earlier in the thread, as long as employment is stable, the housing bubble should be stable. Stagnant, but stable.
The fact that you still see growth in some areas, like down here, prove that the bubble isn't bursting yet. There is still price competition for the property in areas that are perceived as premium locations.
Joined: Aug 13, 2005 Posts: 603 Location: BlueRidgeVA
Posted: Tue Mar 07, 2006 9:37 pm Post subject: Re: Housing Boom Officially Over - Collapse Imminent
Wahoo wrote:
There is still money out there, looking for a place to buy. It's just trickling away from Everytown, USA, and flowing toward the hot spots. A lot of the baby boomers want to live in the warmer parts of CA, or in south Florida. The warm weather and ocean breezes are good for their rheumatoid arthritis. So, they and their millions are fighting for condos and houses in these areas.
Whew! It's good to know that our concerns about hyper-inflated RE assets are baseless....just a bunch of baby-boomers moving around. Thought we had a real problem there.
Of course, the Real Estate Agents like to use that argument when luring buyers into an over-priced market....."our location is so special that buyers will pay very high prices to live here".
Posted: Tue Mar 07, 2006 11:12 pm Post subject: Re: Housing Boom Officially Over - Collapse Imminent
Maybe some real estate gurus could tell me what this means...
Locally we have just hit a record in how many rentals there are on the market (as in people renting). The demand is also so high that there are very few advertised for any length of time, compared to a few months ago (we recently switched rentals and found it hard 3 months ago, but its worse now).
My elementary school explanation would be that the cost of owning a house is becoming too much and more people are forced to rent?
Joined: Apr 17, 2005 Posts: 2558 Location: Vancouver Island
Posted: Tue Mar 07, 2006 11:59 pm Post subject: Re: Housing Boom Officially Over - Collapse Imminent
yeah usually a shortage of rentals means housing has become out of reach for a big chunk of the population. This could be due to increased housing prices or it could be due to reduced income levels. Either way it's not generally a good thing _________________ shame on us, doomed from the start
god have mercy on our dirty little hearts
Interesting article, but contains some faults. Such as the comparison of 'loss' for rental and for buying. The calculations assume the 'loss' of buying for the first year only when interest payments are high. It does not compare the long term when the monthly costs for house owning come down, and especially it does not compare costs after a house has been paid for.
I did the calcuations for a flat ('apartment' for those from North America) and yes in the early years it would have been cheaper to rent but in the long term it has been cheaper to buy (including counting loss of interest if the capital was invested.) The time scale was:
Bought 1989
Monthly costs cheaper than renting 1994
'Peak cumulative loss' 1995 (due to repairs etc)
Break even point 2002.
So to sum up we had to hold the property for 13 years to make a profit over what we would have had to pay for renting. As we have had the flat for longer we are in the black. So profit-loss depends largely on your perspective of how long you are willing to look/hold things. _________________ We should teach our children the 4-Rs: Reduce, Reuse, Recycle and Rejoice.
Joined: Sep 06, 2004 Posts: 5317 Location: Smalltown New Zealand
Posted: Wed Mar 08, 2006 1:11 am Post subject: Re: Housing Boom Officially Over - Collapse Imminent
IslandCrow wrote:
It does not compare the long term when the monthly costs for house owning come down, and especially it does not compare costs after a house has been paid for.
How many are going to get into that situation, everyone I know is mortgaged to the hilt, you are 'expected' to borrow 3 times your salary, if you don't you are odd. _________________ "Complex problems have simple, easy to understand, wrong answers." - Henry Louis Mencken
Posted: Wed Mar 08, 2006 2:19 am Post subject: Re: Housing Boom Officially Over - Collapse Imminent
rogerhb wrote:
How many are going to get into that situation, everyone I know is mortgaged to the hilt, you are 'expected' to borrow 3 times your salary, if you don't you are odd.
OK "I am odd" , but then aren't most POers a little odd Partly I got into the situation by paying the mortgage down faster than agreed with the bank.
I have always been very conservative with handling money. Maybe because I have parents who have never taken a loan [now that is really odd in this society]
Talking about collapses, Finland went through a housing price collapse just after we bought the flat. While we paid less than the initial asking price (the person selling had a bridging loan and needed to sell, and had reduced the price before we saw the house) we did see the the value of our purchase drop in HALF. The reason for the bubble was that the banking system had been deregulated and foreign loans were more attractive, at least to businesses. This left the banks with lots of cash that businesses did not want so they pumped it into housing. In the crash that followed, a lot of couples that had two homes ('his' and 'hers') agreed to sell one of them so the market also become flooded.
On a practical note, I hope your banks are as willing to cooperate as ours - one time we got into financial difficulty (even with all our careful finanical handling ) and had to pay just interest for several months. What helped is that we contacted the bank as soon as we knew there was a problem and they were willing to help out . One advice we read about at that time was that if you were in difficulty it was best to contact the bank, before you had to start missing payments. That way the banks are much more willing to work with you. _________________ We should teach our children the 4-Rs: Reduce, Reuse, Recycle and Rejoice.
Posted: Wed Mar 08, 2006 4:50 am Post subject: Re: Housing Boom Officially Over - Collapse Imminent
Let people lose their money, they made it buying property and they will lose it buying property, christ there are idiots on this forum, someone with a screw lose was whining about music playing in this thread, hell there is stop button on the media player, mute on the computer, off on the sound system. I got rid of it to make them happy, but happyness is just a state of mind, if you need someone else to do something to make you happy, your in trouble, you need to do something yourself to make yourself happy. I won't be here much longer tiptoe around pleasing people, i'll just keep stuff to myself and not share. To the conservative people out there, get a fucking life instead of whining & complaining you have a problem with it because you were at work and music started playing. Seriously I went to the trouble to post a song about the house price crash in this related thread and people are nay saying.
Joined: Aug 19, 2004 Posts: 1599 Location: Republic of Texas
Posted: Wed Mar 08, 2006 6:53 am Post subject: Re: Housing Boom Officially Over - Collapse Imminent
Dukat_Reloaded wrote:
To the conservative people out there, get a fucking life instead of whining & complaining you have a problem with it because you were at work and music started playing. Seriously I went to the trouble to post a song about the house price crash in this related thread and people are nay saying.
That's pretty rude. _________________ Conform . Consume . Obey .
Posted: Wed Mar 08, 2006 7:18 am Post subject: Re: Housing Boom Officially Over - Collapse Imminent
TommyJefferson wrote:
Dukat_Reloaded wrote:
To the conservative people out there, get a fucking life instead of whining & complaining you have a problem with it because you were at work and music started playing. Seriously I went to the trouble to post a song about the house price crash in this related thread and people are nay saying.
That's pretty rude.
Just for the record I was not complaining... just trying to make a joke to incite Dukat . And he's right, if your going to surf this site on your employer's network then it's contents become your responsibility. So STFU and GBTW. _________________ -Dac
Winners never quit and quiters never win, but those that never win and never quit are idiots.
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, but then aren't most POers a little odd 
Partly I got into the situation by paying the mortgage down faster than agreed with the bank.
) and had to pay just interest for several months. What helped is that we contacted the bank as soon as we knew there was a problem and they were willing to help out . One advice we read about at that time was that if you were in difficulty it was best to contact the bank, before you had to start missing payments. That way the banks are much more willing to work with you.
. And he's right, if your going to surf this site on your employer's network then it's contents become your responsibility. So STFU and GBTW. 
