Hoarding is exactly what the government is doing right now by filling the SPR, and frankly it's the best thing that could happen. It drives prices up. High prices encourage demand destruction. They also finance new well development. The hoarded oil gives us a buffer to fall back on once shortages become more prevalent. High prices are what we need in order to adapt to what's coming, and the sooner they happen, the better.
Posted: Tue Apr 22, 2008 5:13 pm Post subject: Re: Housing & Economic Collapse - In Progress
The near term in all of this could be very near indeed!
Some great ideas here! Anybody remember the little booklets available at the County Agent's office on soil conservation, livestock ponds, rural sanitation, etc.? How about we put together some stuff for hime to hand out/e-mail/give talks on the media, about the common sense stuff this site knows so well? Average Joe is clueless, but he doesn't have to stay that way. I heard tales growing up of US govt campaigns during WWII for scrap metal drives, Victory Gardens, and Rosie the Rivetter posters to encourage women to go to work for the war effort.
Yeah, I know, it's not in the govt's/big oil's best interest to do certain things, yada, yada. I think it will come to that, though. I'd rather see that than the "sit on the lid of this garbage can to keep the smell inside" policies we see now. _________________ Local fix-it guy..
This is an ABC news segment about people having to choose between gas and food. There's guy in the piece that drives 40 miles to go to church. Of course that dude lives in Phoenix.
Posted: Tue Apr 22, 2008 5:54 pm Post subject: Re: Housing & Economic Collapse - In Progress
patience said:
Quote:
Yeah, I know, it's not in the govt's/big oil's best interest to do certain things, yada, yada. I think it will come to that, though. I'd rather see that than the "sit on the lid of this garbage can to keep the smell inside" policies we see now.
It appears that the federal government is paralyzed, and it has grown so large and bureaucratic that it seems unlikely that it will be able to respond to anything fast enough to affect constructive change. At this point, it is doubtful that it could act fast enough to stop a glacier.
Only local and state governments, as inefficient as we have let them become, have the were withal to act in communities best interest. To accomplish this, the capacity to tax on a federal level will have to be curtailed. The federal government has proven repeatedly, for more than fifty years, that it is unable to judicially handle the nation’s budget. As long as they retain the power to tax indiscriminately, they will continue to squander outlandishly.
For us to survive with any semblance of a modern civilization, our entire infrastructure and life style will have to be altered. This will not be done with a federal structure that panders to special moneyed interest and dissolute and self interested federal bureaucracies.
Joined: Mar 09, 2007 Posts: 213 Location: No. Calif.
Posted: Tue Apr 22, 2008 7:13 pm Post subject: Re: Housing & Economic Collapse - In Progress
shortonoil wrote:
It appears that the federal government is paralyzed, and it has grown so large and bureaucratic that it seems unlikely that it will be able to respond to anything fast enough to affect constructive change. At this point, it is doubtful that it could act fast enough to stop a glacier.
You mean like official Brown during hurricane Katrina:
Posted: Tue Apr 22, 2008 8:56 pm Post subject: Re: Housing & Economic Collapse - In Progress
CC’s quick update for the Denver, Colorado area.
Current situations, the reactions of people and how my city’s doing might be of interest.
I’m a computer tech for many small to medium sized businesses in the Denver Metro area. Everything from Landscaping companies to Catholic Schools, Real estate companies to Horizontal Drilling Consultants. I think I have a good mix of businesses giving me a somewhat “behind the scenes look” at what’s going on in the local economy. I can’t stress how much I value the knowledge some have shared on this board regarding local bank failures, legal workings and such proving we aren’t cooks it’s everyone else!
To begin I’d like to mention the Church across the street from where I live. They post group meetings and church events. As I posted in another thread a while back, there was a bulletin in regards to a Foreclosure Support Group. It’s nice to see how churches bring people together to help each other. I wonder if it’s like going to AA meetings? How interesting it’d be to be a fly on that wall during those group conversations. For those who haven’t been part of group therapy/discussion, I can tell you there’d be some juicy stories in a foreclosure group therapy. Encompassing alcohol, drugs, sex, and now of course debt, a communion of personal train wrecks in which people admit their mistakes, desires, and convictions. It doesn’t get any more ‘real’ than group therapy and if you don’t know already, people have some fuct up lives (but what’s new?). I’ve noticed the church become busier and a fuller parking lot. Now there are younger couples and children while not even two years ago it was mostly older and elderly people. I think there will be a greater move towards spiritualism and that’s great for those who want to be a part of it.
Now for what I see while working… aside from arguments with my boss regarding oil being in a “bubble” due to the housing bubble imploding and there needs to be a new bubble and how this is just like in 70’s and 80’s, peakoil denial... i don’t waste my time anymore… I get to see real drama when I go to visit my customers. I have to say that I appreciate my customers a lot. Their success is proportional to my own success and I wouldn’t want it any other way. Unfortunately many of my customers are in industries that are *about to get OWNED over the next couple years. *Notice I said “about to”, I’ve gotten a little crap on this board for playing down the current crises but I haven’t explained much as to why I’m becoming more optimistic. In reality it’s analogous to a personal “suckers rally” but in reality, to me, things aren’t as bad as they should be or I thought they’d be by now. I predicted the mortgage company across the street from my work going out of business last October and it appears to be THRIVING! The Real estate company I work for has more realtors coming on and things are getting busier and busier. When they laid off some people before Christmas and said that they may be hiring them back in April, I laughed inside and also felt bad for their misinterpretation of the current state of affairs. I ended up being the one who was wrong though. I thought April would be when reality sunk in. I guess next April, or the April after that, or the ones before and after 2012 will be when TSHTF. It’s not like I want doom but when my best friend buys a new house against my recommendations and more and more realtors are coming onboard at a major real-estate company I have to stop and wonder if I’m the one who’s deluded.
Bottom line. Houses, apartments, shopettes and suburban sprawl building are all still in full force. We seem hell bent on hitting this cliff at full throttle, it might make the ride a little more fun, might even get some style points.
Joined: May 19, 2005 Posts: 759 Location: Merry Ol' USA
Posted: Tue Apr 22, 2008 9:57 pm Post subject: Re: Housing & Economic Collapse - In Progress
Good post Contrarian.
1. You're not at all deluded - things are not at all as they "seem" on the surface. I work daily with developers in a fast-growing part of the country, where housing values have climbed ridiculously fast (it's not New York, Florida, DC or anywhere west of the Mississippi) in the past couple of years. All of a sudden approved projects have come to a screeching halt. On the other hand, huge projects - 250 million + - are still cooking like things are fine. Are they? No - what's happened is that these enterprises are so far into it that they can't stop. It's like being at the top of Mt. Everest - once you make it, you have to come back; you can't stop and wait for the storm to blow over because you'll die up there. This stuff is the same way - realtors have flat-out told me that nothing's selling, yet these huge projects continue to grind millions of dollars into the ground. What other choice do they have? Toss up their hands halfway in and tell their bank/investors "I'm walking on this one, we'll do it again when times are good". They'll be out of business.
2. There are a hell of a lot of things that are starting to make Peak Oil look small by comparison, ie the food markets.
All in all I think optimism is a good trait to have. But I have to admit, though I'm optimistic by nature I'm more of a pragmatist by nature. What do I see? The perfect storm, churning just up ahead, and I'm stuck on a rudderless ship heading straight for it. There's just too much funky crap goin' down in the city to believe otherwise... _________________ After fueling up their cars, Twyman says they bowed their heads and asked God for cheaper gas.There was no immediate answer, but he says other motorists joined in and the service station owner didn't run them off.
* With more than 1.8 million civilian employees, the Federal Government, excluding the Postal Service is the Nation’s largest employer.
* About 9 out of 10 Federal employees work outside the Washington, DC metropolitan area.
* Job growth generated by increased homeland security needs will be offset by projected declines in other Federal sectors; however, many job openings should arise from the need to replace workers who retire or leave the Federal Government for other reasons.
* Competition is expected for many Federal positions, especially during times of economic uncertainty, when workers seek the stability of Federal employment.
They will not go quietly into the good night. They buy everything that is possible to manufacture. They will do whatever it takes to protect themselves and their way of life.
See any problem in having the Fed's downsize and conserve? See any way for them to lead the way in a move to a new, lower energy way of life? _________________ Civilization is a personal choice.
Joined: Jun 18, 2005 Posts: 3667 Location: In a van down by the river
Posted: Wed Apr 23, 2008 8:15 am Post subject: Re: Housing & Economic Collapse - In Progress
Florida and California are ground zero for this collapse and are months or maybe even a year ahead of the rest of the country. They are leading the way down.
Joined: Oct 23, 2004 Posts: 5167 Location: New Jersey
Posted: Wed Apr 23, 2008 11:57 am Post subject: Re: Housing & Economic Collapse - In Progress
More bad news from AMBAC. Is anyone here surprised things are trending worse than what analysts have been telling us? Or that the 'worst' may not be over? Or maybe Bear Streans was more than a tad worse shape at the time of the Fed bailout than the Fed/Treasury/Wall Street would care to admit ? (see 82% loss on BS securities below)
Quote:
Credit Crunch Weighs On Ambac Results
By KEVIN KINGSBURY and LAVONNE KUYKENDALL
April 23, 2008 12:47 p.m.
Ambac Financial Group Inc. swung into the red in the first quarter on a further $1.73 billion in collateralized-debt-obligation losses and $1.04 billion in loss provisions, as the nation's second-biggest bond insurer continued to be weighed down by the credit crunch.
Revenue, which included many of the investment losses, was a negative $1.56 billion, compared with $461.8 million a year earlier. The mean estimates of analysts surveyed by Thomson Financial were for a loss of $1.51 a share on revenue of $414 million.
"While we realize that these are disappointing credit results, we continue to believe that the capital raise and strategic business actions taken during the quarter will enable us to get beyond this credit market," said Chairman and Chief Executive Michael Callen.
Ambac last month raised $1.5 billion, tripling its shares outstanding, and said it would stop insuring mortgage-backed debt to defend the key AAA rating at subsidiary Ambac Assurance. The plan received a skeptical reaction from investors, who were hoping for a bigger rescue via a direct injection of funds by banks.
Ambac originally projected that losses on the underlying collateral of the Bear Stearns transaction would be between 10% and 12%, but now expects losses at 81.8% of underlying collateral, a transaction that has seen an unexpectedly "rapid escalation of losses," and represents an outsized percentage of the insurer's expected credit impairment, Mr. Wallis said.
Posted: Wed Apr 23, 2008 12:49 pm Post subject: Re: Housing & Economic Collapse - In Progress
I can tell you as an educator in Central Florida that our school district is expecting one hell of a hit from all this. Here is a power point that was given to all our principals. I know some of the abbreviations may be strange but the bottom line is that a lot of things are going to get cut. Even with all the cuts listed we will still have a shortfall of 14 million. Its yet to be determined how we will meet that amount. Next year is going to be very interesting. Another district south of us is cutting nearly 20% of its teacher units.
'We're hearing talk of 50 billion euros of writedowns at UBS (nyse: UBS - news - people ),' said a London-based dealer, although he voiced scepticism over the rumours, commenting that UBS had published only recently.
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