Oil's energy contribution has declined by about 12% since 1999. The world's economies have also declined by about 12%. (Using conventional metrics, which are time delayed determinations, this will only be seen in hind sight). The massive destruction of asset values now occurring testifies to it happening.
Peak is well behind us, world economies have peaked and will continue to decline.
Joined: Aug 19, 2004 Posts: 1786 Location: Republic of Texas
Posted: Sat Apr 08, 2006 4:13 pm Post subject: The Economy must be doing worse than we're told
All the mainstream economic media say the US economy is chugging along nicely with only a hint of slowdown in the 3rd quarter and a "leveling" of home prices.
This contradicts what I'm see out here in the real world. I'm seeing LOTS of people trying to sell off excess personal toys like boats, lake lots, and motorcycles.
I watch the local want-ad papers and ebay for bargins on things I enjoy. I'm seeing a MUCH higher volume of stuff appearing. Things are also staying for sale longer. They are also selling for much lower prices.
Example:
After five days on the auction block, this motorcycle has only been bid up to $5,100
Three years ago this style of bike in this condition would have *easily* brought $12,000 in the first few bids since new ones like it were $21,000. It would have eventually sold for around $17,000.
I'll be watching this bike to see if it even tops $11,000 _________________ Conform . Consume . Obey .
Joined: Sep 12, 2005 Posts: 289 Location: Victoria, Australia
Posted: Sat Apr 08, 2006 4:26 pm Post subject: Re: The Economy must be doing worse than we're told
I'm seeing much the same here in Australia. Heaps of cars parked outside houses with FOR SALE signs. Motor bikes and boats too.
Where I really notice the change is in Opportunity Shops. I think you call them Thrift Shops. I'm always popping into Op Shops to try to find a bargain. Not so long ago I used to regularly see things like blankets, towels, sheets at cheap prices. Now I see practically none. Those that are there are quite expensive.
There also used to be heaps of really cheap curtains. Recently a friend was moving house and needed curtains. I visited every Op Shop in and around Melbourne for curtains and found none worth having. We even put our names down with about 6 stores and after 3 months - nothing.
This suggests to me that people are not buying new curtains and linen - and therefore none end up in the Op Shops.
Posted: Sat Apr 08, 2006 6:11 pm Post subject: Re: The Economy must be doing worse than we're told
TT wrote:
I'm seeing much the same here in Australia. Heaps of cars parked outside houses with FOR SALE signs. Motor bikes and boats too.
Where I really notice the change is in Opportunity Shops. I think you call them Thrift Shops. I'm always popping into Op Shops to try to find a bargain. Not so long ago I used to regularly see things like blankets, towels, sheets at cheap prices. Now I see practically none. Those that are there are quite expensive.
There also used to be heaps of really cheap curtains. Recently a friend was moving house and needed curtains. I visited every Op Shop in and around Melbourne for curtains and found none worth having. We even put our names down with about 6 stores and after 3 months - nothing.
This suggests to me that people are not buying new curtains and linen - and therefore none end up in the Op Shops.
Agree with you as well. Just going through the Real Estate paper today and I couldn't believe how many ads, had "NEW PRICE" or "Price Reduced" over them. LOTS of them!!!
I live in a very desirable neighbourhood and 2 doors down the house is on it's 5th open house. This would have been unheard of last year. It would have been snatched up before an open house would have been necessary.
Neighbour across the street has just been let go from making Mufflers for GM SUV's (saw that one coming) an everyone else I talk to is working harder at keeping their head above water.
Posted: Sat Apr 08, 2006 8:06 pm Post subject: Re: The Economy must be doing worse than we're told
threadbear wrote:
Interesting posts. This kind of thread is very useful as we are being constantly lied to by the media. House prices seem to be hitting a plateau on Vancouver island and Gulf islands in Canada, even though unemployment is at an all time low. Construction is the only area where people are making much more money than they used to make. It's a real worker's paradise, here. Other than that incomes aren't going up.
Hey threadbear, I live in Vancouver myself and am astonished by how many people are banking on the whole "every house is going to be a million by the time the Olympics comes around" message in the MSM. I see labourers, making $35,000/year, buying up extra houses utterly convinced that they cannot loose. Everybody but my father is telling me to run out and do the same. No thanks! If anything, I'll buy some nice, cheap farmland like what my dad's got out in Quesnel.
Posted: Sat Apr 08, 2006 8:15 pm Post subject: Re: The Economy must be doing worse than we're told
Interesting posts. This kind of thread is very useful as we are being constantly lied to by the media. House prices seem to be hitting a plateau on Vancouver island and Gulf islands in Canada, even though unemployment is at an all time low. Construction is the only area where people are making much more money than they used to make. It's a real worker's paradise, here. Other than that incomes aren't going up.
Three years ago this style of bike in this condition would have *easily* brought $12,000 in the first few bids since new ones like it were $21,000. It would have eventually sold for around $17,000.
I'll be watching this bike to see if it even tops $11,000
Let's place predictions on the final selling price on the motorbike shall we?
Joined: Sep 25, 2004 Posts: 4726 Location: Boston, MA
Posted: Sat Apr 08, 2006 9:27 pm Post subject: Re: The Economy must be doing worse than we're told
Maybe it's just because I'm noticing it more often.
Maybe it's just that spring time is the time to sell.
But I have been noticing an alarming surplus of houses on the market.
I live in what is normally considered a "recession-proof" town. Yet somehow I see plenty of "price reduced" signs on massive houses. The school is having budget problems. Prices everywhere are going up and up. Traffic at the restaurant that I work at (but am quitting because I hate it there) is down.
Overall, things are not rosey.
And the capital gains/dividend tax cut extensions are probably not going to pass in Congress. The market will tank on that news and it will signal the start of Dow 8000.
We will not see 3.5% growth in the 4th quarter, I can tell you that much.
(I'm thinking 13,000 for the bike. But please give us a link to the item on Ebay, I want to check it out before making a real guess) _________________ "www.peakoil.com is the Myspace of the Apocalypse."
Joined: Jan 29, 2006 Posts: 309 Location: Fort Collins, CO
Posted: Sat Apr 08, 2006 11:17 pm Post subject: Re: The Economy must be doing worse than we're told
The housing market is bad here, especially the upper-end homes. A number of friends have been layed off, and have had to settle for lesser paying jobs, sometimes 10-20% less.
I don't think we're seeing this in the Stock Market, because the wealthy are still investing. There is a much wider gap between the rich and the non-rich.
Jim Gagnepain
http://home.comcast.net/~oil_free_and_happy/
Joined: May 17, 2004 Posts: 140 Location: sydney, australia
Posted: Sun Apr 09, 2006 12:23 am Post subject: Re: The Economy must be doing worse than we're told
uNkNowN ElEmEnt wrote:
Jaws please explain this graph. Is this how the Yuan is comparing to the US dollar?
yes, it's a graph of the yuan/usd exchange rate. the big drop in august was the 2% revaluation of the yuan.
you can see the symptoms of the US trade deficit with china. products are paid for in $US and the chinese are selling these dollars to buy back yuan. of course, there's also the massive influx of yuan to buy US treasuries (probably a sizeable fraction of 2 billion $ a day). otherwise the rate would be dropping like a stone.
the other symptom is interest rates in the US. the 30 year just crossed 5%, and the 10 year is not far behind. bond prices (inverse to yields) means people are selling bonds (or buying less of them - see above)
Three years ago this style of bike in this condition would have *easily* brought $12,000 in the first few bids since new ones like it were $21,000. It would have eventually sold for around $17,000.
I'll be watching this bike to see if it even tops $11,000
Its a Hardley, the things make great fashion accessories for dentists, but why waste more than $5 on it? Buy the Hardley tshirt and pretend like everyone else, no point to getting oil stains all over the garage floor and wasting $6G's on something this silly.
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