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| Do you think that terminal climate change is likely |
| Yes |
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41% |
[ 30 ] |
| No |
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27% |
[ 20 ] |
| Not sure |
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16% |
[ 12 ] |
| This is a stupid question |
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15% |
[ 11 ] |
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| Total Votes : 73 |
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americandream
Fission
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Joined: Oct 18, 2004
Posts: 2106
Location: kiwibush
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 Posted: Mon Apr 24, 2006 2:26 am Post subject: End of the World |
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I'm doing a poll on what the breakdown is between those who see climate change as likely, those who don't, those who don't know and those who are downright sceptical of the notion........
.........in a nutshell are we, in running the civilisation we are, heading for the cliff edge climatically?
Thanks for your time.
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Peak_Plus
Heavy Crude
Joined: Oct 01, 2004
Posts: 214
Location: Germany/Ohio
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| Posted: Mon Apr 24, 2006 5:45 am Post subject: Re: End of the World |
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How do you define "terminal?"
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MadMarcus
Tar Sands
Joined: Feb 17, 2006
Posts: 62
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| Posted: Mon Apr 24, 2006 5:54 am Post subject: Re: End of the World |
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| Peak_Plus wrote: | | How do you define "terminal?" |
I'm with Peak_Plus. While I answered the question I really have no faith in my answer without knowing how you define terminal.
I do not think climate change will render the Earth uninhabitable |
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Doly
Expert
Joined: Dec 03, 2004
Posts: 4041
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| Posted: Mon Apr 24, 2006 6:22 am Post subject: Re: End of the World |
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I'm assuming that "terminal" in this context means a change big enough to cause havoc with our current crops.
I really don't know. I used to think it was unlikely, but recent informations seem to point that it is a real possibility. I wish things were clearer. |
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Rincewind
Heavy Crude
Joined: Jun 17, 2004
Posts: 197
Location: New Zealand
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| Posted: Tue Apr 25, 2006 6:33 pm Post subject: Re: End of the World |
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Hmm Terminal sounds very final
Life is a lot more resilent than we generally think. I was once told that about the only way to wipe out on Earth was for the sun to go Nova, as there are bacteria living happily in the crust.
So for me their is a heirarchy something like:
1 End of current world order (you know the US, EU, Russian Fed, China dominated world)
2 End of technocratic civilisation (hygiene, easy information transfer)
3 End of humans as the dominant species (Yes I know the bacteria really run the planet but you know what I mean)
4 Human species extinct
5 Chordates extinct (things with backbones)
6 Invertbrates extinct (cockroaches)
7 Life extinct
On this scale the worst I can conceive of as a result of climate change is about level 3 basically back to a population of under 1 million dominated by hunter/gather and slash and burn subsistance agriculture (but this would take centuries/millenia). 1 I think is inevitable and 2 is [highly] possible.
Rincewind |
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americandream
Fission
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Joined: Oct 18, 2004
Posts: 2106
Location: kiwibush
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| Posted: Wed Apr 26, 2006 1:38 am Post subject: Re: End of the World |
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"Terminal" here meant a point at which the climate soup flips over into a rapid imbalance that is no longer friendly to life.........the underlying notion being.....that there are drivers present today with uniquely intensive co2 output profiles, namely, this civilisation.
Does anyone know of an equivalent open ended co2 input mechanism in past planetary history.
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Tanada
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Joined: Apr 28, 2005
Posts: 3879
Location: West shore Lake Eire, MI, USA
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| Posted: Wed Apr 26, 2006 5:02 am Post subject: Re: End of the World |
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| americandream wrote: | "Terminal" here meant a point at which the climate soup flips over into a rapid imbalance that is no longer friendly to life.........the underlying notion being.....that there are drivers present today with uniquely intensive co2 output profiles, namely, this civilisation.
Does anyone know of an equivalent open ended co2 input mechanism in past planetary history. |
As a matter of fact, yes. During the great glaciation "snowball earth" period 400 million years ago the ice sheets met at the equator and rainfall effectively stopped. Without rainfall the CO2 in the air was not absorbed by condensation drops and mixed with the surface waters of the earth, instead it continued to build up from volcanic sources for millenia, perhaps even a million years or more. Once the greenhouse effect grew intense enough to melt the equatorial portion of the ice sheet the surface waters rapidly warmed by absorbing solar energy. A feedback loop took effect and within less than a millenia all the surface ice on Earth melted from pole to pole. The open surface water released water vapor into the air and it started raining again, washing the CO2 out of the air into the surface waters and ocean. This resulted in a very thick limestone layer world wide, which is popular in geology field trips relating this scenario.
Do a search on the "snowball Earth" threory to see if I messed up any of the details from memory.
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smallpoxgirl
Moderator
Joined: Nov 08, 2004
Posts: 6359
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| Posted: Wed Apr 26, 2006 8:13 pm Post subject: Re: End of the World |
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| americandream wrote: | | Does anyone know of an equivalent open ended co2 input mechanism in past planetary history. |
In all fairness, it's not open ended. These are fossil fuels. Every drop of gasoline was once a plant or something. Life survived on earth then, and it will continue into the forseable future. I like Rincewind's scale, and I would agree. #1 almost certain. #2 likely #3 maybe #4 unlikely.
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I hear babies quit their crying.
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grabby
Light Sweet Crude
Joined: Nov 08, 2005
Posts: 1328
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| Posted: Wed Apr 26, 2006 10:45 pm Post subject: Re: End of the World |
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People will be people.
Last edited by grabby on Mon May 08, 2006 1:41 pm; edited 1 time in total |
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Ibon
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Joined: Dec 03, 2004
Posts: 1173
Location: Seattle, Wa.
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| Posted: Wed Apr 26, 2006 11:17 pm Post subject: Re: End of the World |
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| Think about bogs, swamps, river deltas, ocean bottoms or any such places where oxygen deprives organic matter from decomposing and it builds up hundreds or thousands of feet thick. Add time and pressure and it works just like heat and pressure on olives making olive oil. |
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bobcousins
Light Sweet Crude
Joined: Oct 14, 2004
Posts: 1203
Location: Left the cult
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| Posted: Thu Apr 27, 2006 10:49 am Post subject: Re: End of the World |
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| Rincewind wrote: | So for me their is a heirarchy something like:
1 End of current world order (you know the US, EU, Russian Fed, China dominated world)
2 End of technocratic civilisation (hygiene, easy information transfer)
3 End of humans as the dominant species (Yes I know the bacteria really run the planet but you know what I mean)
4 Human species extinct
5 Chordates extinct (things with backbones)
6 Invertbrates extinct (cockroaches)
7 Life extinct |
Great scale! A little non-linear of course, the jump from 6 to 7 is a lot bigger than 1 to 2, but useful.
#2 and possibly are #3 are inevitable anyway, even without global warming. In a few thousand years when the next glacial period starts (ice age in lay speak), civilisation is pretty much doomed. There will be 1km thick ice sheets covering much of Northern Europe for example. At the turn of the last ice age, it is speculated there were as little as 75,000 humans, based on genetic variations.
Even a current spell of up to +2 deg human induced warming pales into insignificance compared to the +12/-12 variation over the history of the Earth.
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americandream
Fission
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Joined: Oct 18, 2004
Posts: 2106
Location: kiwibush
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| Posted: Thu Apr 27, 2006 5:12 pm Post subject: Re: End of the World |
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I guess to the extent that we tend to largely measure anything in terms of our presence on this planet...terminal here would mean liveability for the present ecosystem which has brought humankind to this point in its evolution.
Looking at the broader cosmic picture, I've no doubt that this planet has many an interesting detour to take before this particular solar system reaches its term.
In the presence of a co2 open ended civilisation such as ours.....(unlike many I'm not awfully sure that we have the ability to limit our drawdown of co2 from the planets reserves).......the question that comes to my mind is how long will the present ecosystem prevail before it flips to a state no longer friendly to the current crop of inhabitants. With an exponentially expanding co2 intensive global economy, it seems that time is not on our side.
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coyote
News Editor
Joined: Oct 23, 2005
Posts: 1840
Location: East of Eden
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| Posted: Sat Apr 29, 2006 11:03 pm Post subject: Re: End of the World |
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I agree that #s 4-7 on Rincewind's scale are unlikely; but they are possible. No less a scientist than Stephen Hawking has said that he can see runaway global warming happening, to the point where Earth more resembles Venus than itself today. He's a pretty smart guy... the worst-case scenario is possible.
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kam30en
Heavy Crude
Joined: Dec 17, 2005
Posts: 274
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| Posted: Wed May 03, 2006 12:23 pm Post subject: Re: End of the World |
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| If 10C warming occurs, and it looks like it will, since we are burning everything we can get our hand on, the habitable zone of the earth will be reduced dramatically. I would say Human numbers would be reduced to just a few million. |
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0mar
Light Sweet Crude
Joined: Oct 12, 2004
Posts: 1647
Location: Davis, California
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| Posted: Fri May 05, 2006 12:12 am Post subject: Re: End of the World |
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Earth's climate naturally changes. The question is not how we should avoid this change or try to change Earth's climate, but rather how we should adapt to a changing environment.
Chances are that anything steps we take to quell the environment will only make things work. We don't even know how the environment works. Our meddling is akin to throwing a bunch of tools at a jet engine and expecting it to miraclously work.
Instead, we should investigate what the likely effects of a warmer climate would be. Then, we should investigate how to best mitigate this new climate through new behaviors and new systems, not trying to change something we don't understand.
Even the absolute worst case scenario won't extinguish life on earth nor will it drive mankind to extinction. It may kill 50, 75 or even 90% of all human beings. It will definately not sterilze the earth. Nor will it doom large lifeforms. Life will adapt, as it always has. There might be a mass extinction, but nothing life hasn't been through already, so get that absurd scenario out of your heads.
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