New extraction tech to double accessible world oil

killJOY · Fission Joined: Feb 21, 2005 Posts: 2510 Location: ^NNE^

The subtitle of this article is "Fun With the Word 'Could.'"
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"By the time individuals discover that remaining resources will not be adequate for the next generation, the next generation has already been born. " David Price

auscanman

No technologies in the article sound like they are anywhere near being commercially feasible. The stuff towards the end of the article really sounds like a pipe dream. It'd be great if microbes could actually chop off long hydrocarbons, but that's got a long way to go.

I almost hope none of these developments pan out, since they would lower the price of oil, act as a disincentive for development of alternative energies and eventually lead to cliff oil with a presumably much larger population and worse environmental and climatic degredation, rather than the slow dropoff currently expected within the next few years

MacG · Light Sweet Crude Joined: Jun 04, 2005 Posts: 1178

Yea, yea. Great, Even if it's true, then what? Fossil is fossil. Hubbert nailed it in Science in '49. Fossil run out.

Listen here: I know you are scared. I'm scared too. It is much worse before it happen. As soon as it happen, it's just a matter of coping with it, and it's much easier just of a sudden. Like riding a rollercoaster - the way up is the worst. As soon as it starts the downslope, you stop worrying and start enjoying the ride. We all know where it will end, dont we?

EnergyHog · Heavy Crude Joined: Mar 27, 2006 Posts: 215

Concerned · Light Sweet Crude Joined: Sep 23, 2004 Posts: 1553

rockdoc123 · Light Sweet Crude Joined: May 16, 2005 Posts: 1712

Rather than jumping on the ole "oh that is just peak denier bullshit" bandwagon let's look at what he is talking about in detail.

The seismic imaging to look at water channeling etc. is called 4D seismic (the fourth dimension being time). Basically what happens is a 3D seismic grid is layed out over a producing field and data is acquired at different phases of production. It is possible to monitor movement of different fluid phases in this manner. 4D is currently being used in Saudi and other mature areas. Not real new technology but is an tool that has not yet seen widespread application.

In terms of improving the quality of seismic signal this is something that is a continually evolving process. I am always amazed to see recent reprocessing of a seismic line acquired say 5 years ago that had the state of the art processing thrown at it at the time. Usually there is a phenomenal improvement due entirely to better signal processing algorithms. My experience with this over the past 30 years is the only limits is peoples imagination.

The drilling technology thing is a bit over the top I think, reminds me somewhat of that really awful scifi film where they drill through the earths crust to the mantle/core interface using this huge articulated train like contraption with a drill consisting of a rotating cavalcade of laser beams. Good fun to watch but don't wait on the patent to appear.

As to the microbe thing....this is already used in bioremediation efforts. Basically we have always known that it is bacteria and other little gremlins that cause otherwise good oil to become heavy through biodegradtion, a natural event that occurs up to temperature ranges of about 70 - 80 C. This notion has been used to clean up oil spills through seeding bacteria in high quantities in a given area and providing a lot of fertilizer to speed the reaction.

As to what improving recovery can do for the earth's reserves...think about it. Campbell made a generalization that is correct as long as you think of it as being somewhere in the ballpark but the ballpark is really, really big..that being average field recovery is 30%. But what we are seeing is that through application of various technologies recovery factors in fields such as Abaqiq will be over 70%, in California at Kern River up to an unheard of 90%. If by some continued effort they could do this to all of the big fields in the world the affect on ultimate recovery would be astounding. My first pass thought on this would be it would extend a peak out for quite a ways but would be unlikely to actually affect the ultimate level of production.

seahorse · Expert Joined: Oct 15, 2004 Posts: 2256 Location: Arkansas

Rockdoc,

Your best guess, how soon could this new technology be used to extend the average recovery rate to 70%? Are we talking within the next five years?

Hypothetically, if PO were to occur in 2012 (based on known technologies) could these new technologies be brought in use soon enough to extend that date significantly?

dinopello

Sounds like more ideas to extend the plateau, but then could be a really nasty cliff at the end.

Extending the plateau could be good, if we will use that time to build a parachute for the fall off the cliff. Sounds reasonable - preparing for a sharp discontinuity that we all know is coming...

Right?

sicophiliac

Frank

Not much sense worrying about global climate change then, is there?

The issue is much broader than PO - it's about sustainability in general. More oil = larger footprint = harder fall but further down the road.

Zardoz

MonteQuest

RG73

thor · Heavy Crude Joined: Jun 21, 2005 Posts: 453

I don't see how these new technologies can be timely implemented on such a scale that peak is pushed forward significantly. This is not to say new technology will never work, but I expect decades for commerically viable paradigm shifts to come online while we frantically pump 84 mbpd as we speak.

Sad

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