I think this is the beginnings of an economy based on perpetual growth and fossil fuel energy running headlong into geological energy constraints. Basically I see an undulatory downward path for the rest of my life. From here out, I think any rallies in our economic condition are going to be met with spiking commodity prices that knock us right back down.
Joined: Dec 07, 2005 Posts: 1985 Location: Australia
Posted: Tue May 16, 2006 7:03 pm Post subject: Re: Oil, Gold, Copper will all fall this week.
Well so far my gold "correction" of $20-30 has held. (Not that I am beating my own drum as most of my conclusions are based on other peoples analysis.)
Open interest also suggests gold was further shorted and THAT caused the drop NOT initiated by longs taking profit.
Since then gold has started showing signs of recovery.
Compare Gold with for instance Copper and you see gold is still way behind.
Funny thing was Dennis Gartman (closet gold bear who has predicted long term gold gains but first a serious correction for at least over year now) was on Bloomberg yesterday.
As usual he suggested that gold was ahead of it self and needs to come down to $550 and then will be a nice buy.
Looking at the copper chart, which really looks parabolic, he just concluded, yeah that a result of short sellers covering.
HELLO!!! A handful of gold bears are ahort >10,000 TONS and this clown thinks only copper can go parabolic.
Signs are this is not yet the time for a larger correction.
Joined: Nov 07, 2005 Posts: 12 Location: Warsaw, Poland
Posted: Wed May 17, 2006 1:22 am Post subject: Re: Oil, Gold, Copper will all fall this week.
Marklar wrote:
There's just so much cockiness on the bullish side. So I'm taking somewhat of a superstitious point of view. Murphys law would kick in if I were to buy oil futures, I'm sure.
You can still buy out-of-the-money call options, preferably with distant delivery dates. They're cheap and relatively safe.
Joined: Aug 14, 2005 Posts: 766 Location: Dead civilization walking
Posted: Wed May 17, 2006 2:33 am Post subject: Re: Oil, Gold, Copper will all fall this week.
June gold is at 20 dollars to 716 in London and silver rung the 14 dollar bell again. Those shorts are gonna get their balls squeezed out their eyesockets! What kind of rise will their short-covering cause?
The USD index is gimping back down to the 83700s as well. I wonder if well see 750 by Friday?
I wonder if I'm gonna stay up 72 hours straight trading again? Maybe I'll take profits so I can sleep
Posted: Wed May 17, 2006 7:14 am Post subject: Re: Oil, Gold, Copper will all fall this week.
When the price of gold crashed on Monday, it came on the heels of the EU announcement they would offer incentives to resolve the nuclear issue. Today, the price of gold is up and I notice the Iranians are rejecting any EU incentives. Seems related to me.
Posted: Wed May 17, 2006 10:11 am Post subject: Re: Oil, Gold, Copper will all fall this week.
Looks as if a lot of money is seeking refuge in the bond market. There's a broad, across the board sell off taking place right now. The Dow is broaching -200 already, only two hours plus into the trading session. Perhaps Ike Iossif, on thre negative end of developments, was prescient yesterday:
Quote:
... The markets sold off hard last week prompting calls for the end of Western civilization as we know it! Well, we do not think it will happen this week; we can still enjoy driving our gas guzzling Hummers while drinking our overpriced lattes. Why? Because the markets are deeply oversold and most indicators are--at most--a day away from the bottom of their range. The deeply oversold condition combined with Options Expiration this week ought to give the market the opportunity to bounce, and we expect it to do so by Wednesday. If it doesn't, that would mean we are facing a major change in trend, and in that case, the Western civilization may not end, but those who remain bullish, they'd better run for the hills!
Posted: Wed May 17, 2006 1:44 pm Post subject: Re: Oil, Gold, Copper will all fall this week.
strange indeed. Everything sinking.
Glad I bought my $70 Strike Put options for Apple last week. It's now at $65 and looks to be oversold and reverse any day now. So I'm taking my profit.
My first "big" win and I'm pretty excited about it I've only been trading for about 3 months and from what I'm seeing the Nasdaq 100 has broke some serious support on the downside. I hope it reverses soon so I can get in on the next upswing.
I find it weird that stocks are falling so much along with gold, sliver, and oil. Sell in May and RUN away, as fast as you can.
Posted: Wed May 17, 2006 6:06 pm Post subject: Re: Oil, Gold, Copper will all fall this week.
Since last Thursday, I starting buying into the immediacy of a minor correction, but I never figured there'd be as large a sell off in metal stocks as there was, with such a small dip from the last run up in metals. After today, I lost 2/3 of my Sentry fund's profits. I didn't think it'd drop so significantly without a larger correction in bullion prices, because I figured miners' profit-margins were huge even at January's levels, so I didn't bother locking in my profits...
I'm new to this. Why does this seem so disproportionate to me? Was I just underestimating everyone’s paranoia in the stock market? Are the bearish big shots just that much more influential in the stock market than they are with the commodity traders?
Joined: Aug 14, 2005 Posts: 766 Location: Dead civilization walking
Posted: Wed May 17, 2006 6:45 pm Post subject: Re: Oil, Gold, Copper will all fall this week.
kabu wrote:
Since last Thursday, I starting buying into the immediacy of a minor correction, but I never figured there'd be as large a sell off in metal stocks as there was, with such a small dip from the last run up in metals. After today, I lost 2/3 of my Sentry fund's profits. I didn't think it'd drop so significantly without a larger correction in bullion prices, because I figured miners' profit-margins were huge even at January's levels, so I didn't bother locking in my profits...
I'm new to this. Why does this seem so disproportionate to me? Was I just underestimating everyone’s paranoia in the stock market? Are the bearish big shots just that much more influential in the stock market than they are with the commodity traders?
The predictions are all over the map. I'm guessing it's a sell on rumor buy back on news thing. The higher CPI scared everyone into thinking that more rate hikes are a certainty. Now that they've had a day to digest things, I am waiting to see what tomorrow will bring. If the metals go up tonight, I am definitely setting limit orders behind the advancing price to protect gains; shoulda done that last night actually.
I am still holding onto my gold and silver longs for now. It's continuing education in finance and investment and speculation in the University of Hard Knocks.
Posted: Wed May 17, 2006 7:37 pm Post subject: Re: Oil, Gold, Copper will all fall this week.
kabu wrote:
Since last Thursday, I starting buying into the immediacy of a minor correction, but I never figured there'd be as large a sell off in metal stocks as there was, with such a small dip from the last run up in metals. After today, I lost 2/3 of my Sentry fund's profits. I didn't think it'd drop so significantly without a larger correction in bullion prices, because I figured miners' profit-margins were huge even at January's levels, so I didn't bother locking in my profits...
I'm new to this. Why does this seem so disproportionate to me? Was I just underestimating everyone’s paranoia in the stock market? Are the bearish big shots just that much more influential in the stock market than they are with the commodity traders?
This is a different market from the past. Much more volatile and dangerous.
You have to keep firmly in mind, that everyone in the market is an amateur this time around. Noone in authority has any type of significant Crash experience.
1929 was a long-time ago, and the crash that is currently building is a global monster no one has seen before.
Experts can see it coming, they just don't know what to do, so the market is going to be very unpredictable.
Gold and silver will still be the safe haven choice in the end, it just may be a bumpy road getting there.
I've been looking forward to this correction. It's more emotional than based on fundamentals and so harder to anticipate.
There are a few issues I've been hoping would drop, but was starting to worry that they would go down as far as I wanted.
I'm buying at the moment and will continue to do so likely for the remainder of the week.
I don't do futures, for the most part I'm buy and hold. On a rare occasion I'll take profit on a given company, usually only to add a bit more to another purchase.
I buy silver, the inventory is much lower, the upside has a better percentage and the silver miners are usually more stable, since most of them are not pure plays. Silver is usually a secondary resource for another commodity, like zinc which is another of my favourites. _________________ Gravity is not a force, it is a boundary layer.
Everything is coincident.
Love: the state of suspended anticipation.
To get any appreciable distance from the Earth in
a sensible amount of time, you must lie.
Posted: Wed May 17, 2006 9:27 pm Post subject: Re: Oil, Gold, Copper will all fall this week.
Too much inflation is happening, it's killing businesses and deflation is kicking in. As a result people are running for the bond market. It's only temporary, soon it will be back to the bull market for gold. These deflationary shocks will happen though when oil goes up too fast like it has been lately.
Posted: Wed May 17, 2006 9:43 pm Post subject: Re: Oil, Gold, Copper will all fall this week.
Thanks for the words, all. I was feeling like a sucker for still holding the bag, but yeah, I guess everyone gets their turn when things are this emotionally charged. I'm going to buy a bunch of bullion or something after my next paycheck! Holding it will make me feel better.
To tell you the truth, I've spent the last hour writing about the ongoing tragedy in the middle-east, and that's pretty much whipped me back into shape, and I've slapped myself on the wrist fer being so as ungrateful for my fortune.
Posted: Thu May 18, 2006 3:37 pm Post subject: Re: Oil, Gold, Copper will all fall this week.
I got stopped out on the way back down today in GLD around 680. It's looking to me like we might still be heading back to 650 or lower on this correction.
I'm bullish long term, and I think an investor today will be in good shape with a long into the future. I think a long trader today is facing some sizeable short term risk.
I'm holding the mining stocks CDE HL because at these prices the P/E is looking pretty good and I think they'll come around OK.
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I've only been trading for about 3 months and from what I'm seeing the Nasdaq 100 has broke some serious support on the downside. I hope it reverses soon so I can get in on the next upswing.
