Posted: Sun May 14, 2006 3:03 pm Post subject: Oil, Gold, Copper will all fall this week.
I believe there will be a large sell off this week bring Oil down to $65, Gold $650, Copper close to $3.
There is so much speculation in the commodity index that it appears people can no longer afford them and are switching to other products.
The fact is the Fundamentals are now way out of wack, funds have pushed prices to levels which the consumers can't afford.
Quote:
Copper has doubled in price this year even though industrial demand is flat.
"This is fairyland," said Richard Elman, head of the Noble Group. "We have
never seen such a disconnect between reality and pricing
of raw materials. The long-term story is sound but the short-term froth is patently frightening."
William Adams, an analyst at BaseMetals.com, said demand for copper tubes was collapsing as producers switched to PVC plastics. The market in Germany has halved from 90,000 to 45,000 tonnes. "There's a very rapid switch from copper. When it turns, copper could easily drop $1,000 a tonne in one day," he said.
David Threlkeld, a veteran copper trader, said the market had been "out of control" for months, allowing speculators to run roughshod over industrial producers and users. "The LME has been seduced by hedge funds, [which have] pushed prices to levels unsupported by fundamentals. There's a vacuum below and the crash could set off a chain of margin calls running through the whole commodities sector. We've got a crisis on our hands and it is a lot bigger than copper," he said.
If your in some highly speculative long positions in Gold mining or gold on margin, I would get out soon, if you have bullion, keep hold on it. I think oil will goto $65 this week and lower after that. $70 oil is effecting economies, people are driving less and it is effecting demand. Demand is going down, but prices are rising, production is increasing but still the price has recently been rising. The fundamentals are out of wack, expect a crash in all these prices. _________________
Man's like a candle in a candlestick,
Made up of tallow and a little wick;
Joined: Oct 18, 2004 Posts: 1943 Location: kiwibush
Posted: Sun May 14, 2006 3:46 pm Post subject: Re: Oil, Gold, Copper will all fall this week.
You mean a trampoline bounce......lol..the Chindian locomotive has left the station bound for the American way of life...and nothing is going to stop 2.5 billion people with a history of trading as long as your arm and a hunger for the glitz from getting a slice of the action....sorry.....world assets are not going to go back to the prices they once enjoyed....if you believe that you're plain ol kidding yourself. _________________ Bugger me, I hear oil's runnin out mate!
Joined: May 17, 2004 Posts: 140 Location: sydney, australia
Posted: Sun May 14, 2006 4:25 pm Post subject: Re: Oil, Gold, Copper will all fall this week.
ask him where he has his clients stocks. i bet they're in the broader stock market.
i don't know about oil and copper, but i'm confident gold will close the week higher. the gold supression scheme is coming undone and is the reason behind the recent runup and will continue to be one of the main drivers behind the continuing increase.
Eighteen of 28 traders, investors and analysts surveyed from Sydney to Chicago on May 11 and May 12 advised buying gold, which rose $27.50 to $711.80 last week in New York. Five recommended selling. Five were neutral.
Gold is up 31 percent the past two months, and Quantum Fund co-founder Jim Rogers says prices may reach $1,000. Investment in shares of the StreetTracks Gold Trust, which is linked to the price of gold, on May 12 swelled to $8.1 billion, the most since the fund began trading in November 2004.
I know Warren Buffett has recently said there is a speculative bubble in oil and metals. This might be true short-term, but how peak-aware is Buffet? I made my investments in metal/oils because of peak oil, and I still don't think speculation about the peak has significantly effected prices yet... _________________ "If you're always looking for the invisible hand to guide you, you will find that the invisible hand often gives you the invisible finger." - some guy on CNBC
Posted: Sun May 14, 2006 4:52 pm Post subject: Re: Oil, Gold, Copper will all fall this week.
americandream.
Quote:
Copper surged this week to an all-time high of $8,875 a tonne, rising almost 10pc on Thursday. Yet futures prices for April 2011 are just $3,778 a tonne.
If you believe prices are going up forever, why don't you buy copper for April 2011 delivery, it is a bargin. _________________
Man's like a candle in a candlestick,
Made up of tallow and a little wick;
Posted: Sun May 14, 2006 5:18 pm Post subject: Re: Oil, Gold, Copper will all fall this week.
Dukat_Reloaded wrote:
americandream.
Quote:
Copper surged this week to an all-time high of $8,875 a tonne, rising almost 10pc on Thursday. Yet futures prices for April 2011 are just $3,778 a tonne.
If you believe prices are going up forever, why don't you buy copper for April 2011 delivery, it is a bargin.
Joined: Oct 18, 2004 Posts: 1943 Location: kiwibush
Posted: Sun May 14, 2006 6:08 pm Post subject: Re: Oil, Gold, Copper will all fall this week.
oilluber wrote:
Dukat_Reloaded wrote:
americandream.
Quote:
Copper surged this week to an all-time high of $8,875 a tonne, rising almost 10pc on Thursday. Yet futures prices for April 2011 are just $3,778 a tonne.
If you believe prices are going up forever, why don't you buy copper for April 2011 delivery, it is a bargin.
= trade of the decade
Yeah....you wanna lend me the money. Cos ya can smell roses, doesn't mean that ya wants to be a rose gardener.
Yanks....ur all the same..full of yaselves and ur invincibility. _________________ Bugger me, I hear oil's runnin out mate!
Joined: Dec 07, 2005 Posts: 1857 Location: Australia
Posted: Sun May 14, 2006 6:16 pm Post subject: Re: Oil, Gold, Copper will all fall this week.
Just because fundamentals suggest that some commodities are overpriced, why would the 'crash' come THIS week???
Price retreatments can happen ANY week and as a trader you always need to ensure you don't overtrade on leveraged positions without proper stoploss strategies.
Money management is simply the most important rule when trading.
I agree however with basketballjones gold is more likely to up rather than down. During the last few months whenever there has been dips there is a lot of short covering trying to bailout driving the price right back up.
Some wallstreet favourite analysist like Gartman has been predicting a gold top for over a year now.
Prechter went out to his clients when gold was $630 and recommended the sell of a lifetime. Gold was going right back to $350.
These guys failed in their analysis casue they haven't accepted the fact that the market is manipulated and there is are some HUGE short positions out there from before gold hit $500.
China, Russia etc knows this and have put a bear squeeze on to ensure the trapped bears don't get away.
Furthermore, there aren't that many smalls specs in gold.
The big guys usually like to wait for the little people to get in and then cashout.
Having all that said, there will be some swings also in Gold.
I just don't think we are there quite yet.
Perhaps $20-30 dips for now.
Regarding oil...oil recently broke 70$ and ha succesfully tested $69-70 level and found support. Think we need to see at least a peak up to $80 before any bigger retracement.
By then hurricance season should have started some activities, so retracements here may also be brief and shallow.
Copper...Personal thoughts only. China is stocking up copper to 1. get rid of dollars, 2. have stocks in case of serious oil crisis anmd of course 3 for their property boom etc.
It would be silly of them to stop buying now as their US$ reserves would grow faster and it would be harder for them to diversify without upsetting US + trigger off larger scale sales. i.e. as long as China buys stuff instead of diversifying into other currencies, the move is seen as legit rather than abandonment of $.
Joined: Jan 18, 2006 Posts: 13 Location: Corvallis, OR
Posted: Sun May 14, 2006 6:20 pm Post subject: Re: Oil, Gold, Copper will all fall this week.
Sure there might be a sell off in the short term, but there are some pretty good reasons for the increase in commodity prices. The whole world is shaky on the dollar, copper is in short supply and in high demand, and--guess what--energy costs are up 50% over last year's average (and up 30% every year for the previous three). Destabilizing economies? Sure. That's the whole point of resource extraction "peaking", especially when population and economic growth are still on the upward swing.
Long term = prices are still too low. They will drop when 4 billion people are dead of starvation and the world economy is decimated.
Posted: Sun May 14, 2006 6:26 pm Post subject: Re: Oil, Gold, Copper will all fall this week.
Dukat_Reloaded wrote:
If your in some highly speculative long positions in Gold mining or gold on margin, I would get out soon, if you have bullion, keep hold on it. I think oil will goto $65 this week and lower after that. $70 oil is effecting economies, people are driving less and it is effecting demand. Demand is going down, but prices are rising, production is increasing but still the price has recently been rising. The fundamentals are out of wack, expect a crash in all these prices.
Other than relying upon the thoughts of others, what special knowledge do you bring to this issue?
Did you predict the crash in the stock market in 1929, or 1987? Did you pick the peak in gold back when it hit over $800 or silver over $50?
Do you do PRIMARY research, or are you just a parot, mimicking what you hear from others, finding them somehow convincing?
And I guess the most important question to authenticate your "cry wolf", what is your bank account balance as a result of your great wisdom in trading markets?
My guess is that you are bogus, and that any person who buys or sells upon your statements is just as big an idiot as someone as yourself who relies upon someone else who happens to put his thoughts on markets in writing, thus making them "factual".
Perhaps this is a harsh assessment of your post, but then, I think that your obviously heightened sense of fear (panic) of market movements is a clue that you are not one to be relied upon for financial advice. Furthermore, it is a serious matter to attempt to influence others one way on another as to how to place their bets in the financial arena. Are you prepared to make good on the losses you may cause by your recommendations?
Maybe the only bigger idiot would be someone who acts upon your second hand brilliance.
Posted: Sun May 14, 2006 6:33 pm Post subject: Re: Oil, Gold, Copper will all fall this week.
So let me get this straight, commodities are overbought so this week there must be a crash. Commodities were overbought last week, the week before that, the week before that, and the week before that, and probably a few more. So why now?
You backed your claim up with a story about builders switching from copper to PVC. Are people going to switch from gold to fools gold? From silver to tin? And instead of oil, I'll just fill up with fake oil substitute because at $75/bbl I had decided to just forego the commute to work altogether. Could copper go down because people switch to PVC? Sure, if that buying source was a large percentage of the market but what does that have to do with the other commodities?
Joined: Oct 18, 2004 Posts: 1943 Location: kiwibush
Posted: Sun May 14, 2006 6:33 pm Post subject: Re: Oil, Gold, Copper will all fall this week.
How much of a brain does it take to work out that 2.5 billion Chindians sucking at the planets resources are gonna put price pressures on a swathe of them long term....lie big time......you'll get see saws as markets micro fluctuate.....but long term....say 2011......if you reckon that we are gonna be behind where we are at present, costs adjusted for inflation......lol....I want what you are smoking dukati. _________________ Bugger me, I hear oil's runnin out mate!
Joined: Aug 14, 2005 Posts: 382 Location: Mississippi Delta
Posted: Sun May 14, 2006 6:48 pm Post subject: Re: Oil, Gold, Copper will all fall this week.
You may be right. I've been waiting for a correction for about 3 weeks, but just Friday broke down and bought a couple of eagles. Now it'll probably come down. However, at about 5 hours into the trade week (2100 NY time) gold is up almost $10.
Edit to add: I actually posted this about a quarter till. You can keep up with it here.
METALS prices rallied to all-time highs at the weekend on a rush of speculative buying amid geopolitical concerns and tight supplies.
Metals were boosted also by news last week that economic giant China planned to set up strategic reserves of copper, aluminium, uranium, coal, iron, and other key mineral resources over the next five years.
The prices of aluminium, copper, zinc and nickel struck fresh record highs as low global inventories, supply disruptions and concern over Iran prompted frenzied speculative buying.
_________________ Let us make him who shall nourish and sustain us. What shall we do to be invoked; to be remembered in the earth.
We have tried with our first creatures but we could not make them venerate us.
So let us try to make obedient respectful beings who shall
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