Posted: Sun Oct 10, 2004 1:40 pm Post subject: Oil Income and Population
Some countries have become almost totally dependent on income from oil. What happens to economies and social structures which have been built largely or almost entirely on the base of a nonrenewable resource like oil? This is the situation of the Persian Gulf countries of Kuwait, Saudi Arabia, Iraq, Qatar, the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, and Oman. Iran and Venezuela, with modest agricultural bases, are not quite so dependent on oil, although both countries get most of their foreign exchange from the sale of oil. Elsewhere, both Libya and Brunei are almost totally oil-dependent.
Contrary to the common idea that increased prosperity results in a reduction in birth rate and population growth, with the social programs supported by oil income, and the Muslim tradition of large families, the growth rate of all the Gulf nations has been well above the average for the world which is about 1.3%. For example, the annual growth rate of the population in Saudi Arabia and in Libya is 4.1% (doubling in 17 years), Kuwait 6.0% (doubling in 11.6 years), Qatar 6.5% (doubling time 10.7 years), and United Arab Emirates 7.3% (doubling time 9.6 years). As a result of these high growth rates, about half the population of the Arab world is now under the age of 15. This fact has ominous portents of a huge increase in the population growth rate over the next two decades as they move into prime reproductive age. Also, this new generation is the first to live predominantly in cities. This has been made possible by oil wealth which allowed people to move beyond primarily agrarian and nomadic economies.
What is their long-term plan to provide for these population increases? Reduce production and raise the price so they can subsist on the revenues longer? _________________ A Saudi saying, "My father rode a camel. I drive a car. My son flies a jet-plane. His son will ride a camel."
Live in Arizona? Check out: http://sustainablearizona.org and read my blog.
What is their long-term plan to provide for these population increases?
As I understand it, the answer is "Nothing". In fact, the rapidly growing number of princes in Saudi Arabia (100,000+ as I recall) is presently leading to reduced circumstances for the princes, which is causing unrest and instability.
When their income starts dropping, the social pressures in the countries you mention may become quite destructive.
Joined: Jul 17, 2004 Posts: 486 Location: Amerika (most of the time)
Posted: Mon Oct 11, 2004 12:05 pm Post subject: Re: Oil Income and Population
MonteQuest wrote:
What is their long-term plan to provide for these population increases? Reduce production and raise the price so they can subsist on the revenues longer?
Very good question Monte. This problem clearly illustrates the problem with exponential growth. These countries will be devestated as depletion becomes more evident and economies falter and can't support these baby boom generations. One quick quesiton, after a certain point, when do the oil exporters have to start using their abundant resources for their booming populations and not for our wonderful SUVs? Can these countries feasibly withhold their oil for required usage or are they to dependent on revenue from oil sales. All of those new mouths to feed will require alot more resources. This is another tough situation.
Whenever you think the situation looks bleak, something else pops up that scares me even more about this situation. _________________ Simon's Law: Everything put together falls apart sooner or later.
I don't think of all the misery, but of all the beauty that still remains.--Anne Frank
One quick quesiton, after a certain point, when do the oil exporters have to start using their abundant resources for their booming populations and not for our wonderful SUVs? Can these countries feasibly withhold their oil for required usage or are they to dependent on revenue from oil sales?
Yes, how soon will the Gulf states have to start importing oil!??? Between the Gulf states and China, I see a huge increase in oil demand over the next 5 years to support the world's largest and fastest growing economy, and to meet the needs of "totally oil dependent countries" both in terms of economy, income, and infrastructure. So, the answer to your last question is both. _________________ A Saudi saying, "My father rode a camel. I drive a car. My son flies a jet-plane. His son will ride a camel."
Live in Arizona? Check out: http://sustainablearizona.org and read my blog.
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