Like the illusion of Wall Street, with its vast and powerful investment banks, now shuttered, China too is an illusion perpetuated by the Globalists that gave us the 15,000 mile Caesar salad, poisoned cat food and lead based paint on babies' pacifiers. Like the illusion that money would come from thin air to always push housing prices higher, China has spent a generation pursuing its illusion. Pursuing an unattainable dream to be like the West, while 6000 years of its carefully shepherded top soil blows into the sea.
Joined: Apr 28, 2006 Posts: 2897 Location: East Texas
Posted: Mon Jun 05, 2006 12:34 am Post subject: Re: Energy and the Mother of Invention
DefiledEngine wrote:
Quote:
Oh, we've got plenty of that nasty black and yellow stuff; and we're gonna burn every last accessible pound of it, and I think it'll take a good fifty years to accomplish that task.
Ì believe you're right, we've got lots of trees to burn as well. And other plants. I wonder how the world's topsoil, oceans and fish will be doing in 2056 with buisness as usual?
I'm not sure about the trees going, but it could just be my silly emotional attachment to them. Haiti could very well be the model....
Also, it would be incorrect to suggest this as business as usual. Think of it more as business in desperation, consuming everything and anything that will make even a hint of smoke.
The level of sorrow by 2040 could easily be dictated by whether mythical fusion begins to be EROI+ or whether we find a way to tap that quasi-infinite heat source beneath our feet.
Quote:
You think we're going to be able to rise population levels as well?
Not long term. I go with the IPCC charts on population on this one. Caps out at 9bil. I think, even without tech, we could hold that population for a few years, but the havoc we would reak in doing it could be mind boggling.
Posted: Mon Jun 05, 2006 12:40 am Post subject: Re: Energy and the Mother of Invention
Please?
Quote:
Let's stay on topic, Carry global warming over to the Environment Forum.
_________________ A Saudi saying, "My father rode a camel. I drive a car. My son flies a jet-plane. His son will ride a camel."
Live in Arizona? Check out: http://sustainablearizona.org and read my blog.
Joined: Apr 28, 2006 Posts: 2897 Location: East Texas
Posted: Mon Jun 05, 2006 1:07 am Post subject: Re: Energy and the Mother of Invention
Quote:
Let's stay on topic, Carry global warming over to the Environment Forum
Correct me if I misread the original post... the topic as I understand it was invention requiring excess energy.
My argument is that the inventions we need are likely at least decades away, but are within the realm of possibility. As well as an observation that the leaders of some 3 billion people have already decided that we're going for it. To support that observation I offered some, perhaps pithy, notes on coal and uranium use over the next fifty years, the mechanics of supply, price, and demand, as well as to acknowedge the suffering that is almost certain to be the result of this chosen gamble. [I was once accused as heartless because I didn't properly acknowledge this and express my sorrow over these tragedies.]
I understand that the scale of this wager in some ways is so large that it is perhaps easier to simply dismiss out of hand, rather than consider the possibility that a few people would wager the lives of billions of people over the shape of things to come. My reading of things is that, not only can they, but that they have already done it.
In thirty or so years, I expect to be hearing one of two things, either "Um folks, we have a problem...." or "Step Right Up!! See the Marvelous Shell Machine. Water in the tube, a little wait, a little zap, pop it in the oven, and *poof* Seattle is Online!!" [exp: fusion failure / fusion success]
Joined: May 15, 2005 Posts: 4142 Location: THE MATRIX
Posted: Mon Jun 05, 2006 1:24 am Post subject: Re: Energy and the Mother of Invention
Take away the energy and you have very little waste - take away the cheap energy and the cheap goods made by them and you have no junk - take away the junk and you have no Edison.
If every man/woman had to sow and harvest their own crops and 1000 other home made/hand made/D.Y.I tasks they would have less time for alot of things - fortunatelty one of these things will be driving
Invention and innovation came slowly thoughout most of history.
Sometimes 1000 years of doing something "the wrong way" or what in hindsite is seen as "The hard way" was experienced before the lights finally came on in someones head and then another 1000 years before the knowledge is spread to considerable parts of the world as old dogs dislike new tricks....
It is no surprise to see a huge and unmistakeable correlation between the rise of the petroleum age and mankinds subsequent rise in technology.
What? ya think we were just collectively retarded and squishy headed before the 19th and 20th centuries?
Of course not - few had time to really think.
Our ability to critically think our way out of this will be greatly diminished post peak and dare I imply that desperation will not be our old friend/motivation as it may have been in the past which is a pre emptive SLASH at anyone suggesting that a manhattan project type effort toward alternatives by TPTB will "fix" anything.
"Rather in the right with two or three then in the wrong with the majority" and "I dont care who said it - I like it " NEOPO
Joined: May 15, 2005 Posts: 4142 Location: THE MATRIX
Posted: Mon Jun 05, 2006 1:41 am Post subject: Re: Energy and the Mother of Invention
am I psychic or what?!!?!?
Dude - we/they can make a small piece of junk spin indefinately on a table top = fusion.
I blame hollywood, the sci fi genre in general and more specifically spiderman2 the movie
My brother in law has this "theory" that we can VENT co2 from the atmosphere through the "already there" ozone hole using a tube thereby solving global warming with a simple straw
I hope Monte found the humor I found in this as that is the only reason I would purposely leave the topic after being asked so nicely not to do so
Posted: Mon Jun 05, 2006 2:13 am Post subject: Re: Energy and the Mother of Invention
NEOPO wrote:
What? ya think we were just collectively retarded and squishy headed before the 19th and 20th centuries?
Of course not - few had time to really think.
I don't think that time to think was the major issue. After all, nowadays people are often so stressed with their jobs that they mostly avoid thinking out of work time. I think the reason has more to do with factors like:
1) Greater population. The more people, the more clever people.
2) Access to research tools (such as microscopes, precision instruments). There is a limited number of things you can do with your hands and eyes.
3) Widespread education.
4) Research being recognized as a useful goal in itself.
Joined: Apr 28, 2006 Posts: 2897 Location: East Texas
Posted: Mon Jun 05, 2006 8:20 am Post subject: Re: Energy and the Mother of Invention
NEOPO wrote:
Dude - we/they can make a small piece of junk spin indefinately on a table top = fusion.
I blame hollywood, the sci fi genre in general and more specifically spiderman2 the movie
Yeah, that was the second most rediculous sci-fi concept I've seen. The worst is of course faster than light travel.. I understand that its a requirement for the show to work as dramatic entertainment, but I still find it very difficult to suspend belief when someone makes a working fusion reactor i a small building, or travels from star to star in 5 seconds flat.
There is a reason I use the term hollywierd!!
On the other hand, there are no physical laws in play that exclude the possibilitiy of fusion power generation, so it can't be dismissed out of hand simply because sci-fi movie makers have used it as a prop. I don't think the odds of success are very high, especially not in this reduced time frame, but it does seem to be the end-game wager that is already on the table.
The real question is alluded to in the original post, do the lights stay on long enough for this technology to make it from a "just maybe it'll work" to powering the grid in fifty years?
Posted: Mon Jun 05, 2006 1:29 pm Post subject: Re: Energy and the Mother of Invention
rwwff wrote:
Correct me if I misread the original post... the topic as I understand it was invention requiring excess energy.
My argument is that the inventions we need are likely at least decades away, but are within the realm of possibility.
No, bringing invention to fruition makes a new demand on energy.
Decades? The inventions we need to bring to fruition now are wind, solar, and other renewables. Mass transit systems, mega expansion of the electrical grid and electrical power generation. These will require enormous amounts of new energy consumption to design, manufacture and deliver. _________________ A Saudi saying, "My father rode a camel. I drive a car. My son flies a jet-plane. His son will ride a camel."
Live in Arizona? Check out: http://sustainablearizona.org and read my blog.
Joined: Apr 28, 2006 Posts: 2897 Location: East Texas
Posted: Mon Jun 05, 2006 2:31 pm Post subject: Re: Energy and the Mother of Invention
MonteQuest wrote:
rwwff wrote:
My argument is that the inventions we need are likely at least decades away, but are within the realm of possibility.
No, bringing invention to fruition makes a new demand on energy.
Yes, it does make new demands on energy, which is why it is important for the price of oil to steadily climb in order to surpress stupid-uses demands. Only those demands which provide a rather massive energy payoff, such as building a nuclear power station, should be economically viable.
Quote:
Decades? The inventions we need to bring to fruition now are wind, solar, and other renewables. Mass transit systems, mega expansion of the electrical grid and electrical power generation. These will require enormous amounts of new energy consumption to design, manufacture and deliver.
While it should be noted that I have absolutely nothing against building jillions of wind turbines and solar panels, and even providing hefty tax rebates for folks installing solar panels at home, I don't think we come anywhere near close to our electrical needs with renewables. The grid is certainly a problem, but I think the companies involved will be able to keep manage.
However, the idea that we are going to deploy even the small amount of renewable tech that we are capable of producing just doesn't seem realisitic. I'd bet on practical fusion before I'd bet on mass deployment of renewables; and I don't have much confidence that practical fusion is likely eveb within the next hundred years.
So, my opinion on this is that the inventions that we really need in order to meet the demands of peak oil are legislative, not technical. We need massive regulatory relief and liability protection, and we need laws that make NIMBY's pay for the inconveniences they place on the rest of the system. Safety to the point of starvation is not a good plan in my book.
Posted: Mon Jun 05, 2006 3:17 pm Post subject: Re: Energy and the Mother of Invention
rwwff wrote:
Yes, it does make new demands on energy, which is why it is important for the price of oil to steadily climb in order to surpress stupid-uses demands. Only those demands which provide a rather massive energy payoff, such as building a nuclear power station, should be economically viable.
GDP cares not whether the use is stupid or not. So, everyone who has a stupid use job or priduct goes pound sand while we use their "freed-up" energy to build nukes?
Quote:
We need massive regulatory relief and liability protection, and we need laws that make NIMBY's pay for the inconveniences they place on the rest of the system. Safety to the point of starvation is not a good plan in my book.
Safety to the point of sustainability is though, isn't it?
You still need new energy to build nukes. _________________ A Saudi saying, "My father rode a camel. I drive a car. My son flies a jet-plane. His son will ride a camel."
Live in Arizona? Check out: http://sustainablearizona.org and read my blog.
Joined: Apr 28, 2006 Posts: 2897 Location: East Texas
Posted: Mon Jun 05, 2006 3:43 pm Post subject: Re: Energy and the Mother of Invention
MonteQuest wrote:
rwwff wrote:
Yes, it does make new demands on energy, which is why it is important for the price of oil to steadily climb in order to surpress stupid-uses demands. Only those demands which provide a rather massive energy payoff, such as building a nuclear power station, should be economically viable.
GDP cares not whether the use is stupid or not. So, everyone who has a stupid use job or priduct goes pound sand while we use their "freed-up" energy to build nukes?
Nah, they can go find something productive to do with their time. Something that doesn't simply leach off of cheap oil.
Quote:
Quote:
We need massive regulatory relief and liability protection, and we need laws that make NIMBY's pay for the inconveniences they place on the rest of the system. Safety to the point of starvation is not a good plan in my book.
Safety to the point of sustainability is though, isn't it?
Only if its possible while maintaining at least 2000 kwh/mon/family in the US.
Quote:
You still need new energy to build nukes.
Yes, but you get that energy by taking it from people who aren't truly productive, and you take it from them with massive hikes in the price of oil. Those jobs which can't be sustained at the $100/bbl and $200/bbl price points need to be terminated, badly. If they can't find a job, they can go do something like manicure lawns with reel mowers, hoes and rakes; drug around by hand in a big red wagon. Nothing but sweat input, all dollars out are income.
Posted: Thu Jun 08, 2006 10:34 am Post subject: Re: Energy and the Mother of Invention
rwwff wrote:
MonteQuest wrote:
rwwff wrote:
Yes, it does make new demands on energy, which is why it is important for the price of oil to steadily climb in order to surpress stupid-uses demands. Only those demands which provide a rather massive energy payoff, such as building a nuclear power station, should be economically viable.
GDP cares not whether the use is stupid or not. So, everyone who has a stupid use job or priduct goes pound sand while we use their "freed-up" energy to build nukes?
Nah, they can go find something productive to do with their time. Something that doesn't simply leach off of cheap oil.
Quote:
You still need new energy to build nukes.
Yes, but you get that energy by taking it from people who aren't truly productive, and you take it from them with massive hikes in the price of oil. Those jobs which can't be sustained at the $100/bbl and $200/bbl price points need to be terminated, badly. If they can't find a job, they can go do something like manicure lawns with reel mowers, hoes and rakes; drug around by hand in a big red wagon. Nothing but sweat input, all dollars out are income.
Posted: Thu Jun 08, 2006 11:55 am Post subject: Re: Energy and the Mother of Invention
rwwff wrote:
Nah, they can go find something productive to do with their time. Something that doesn't simply leach off of cheap oil.
Yes, but you get that energy by taking it from people who aren't truly productive, and you take it from them with massive hikes in the price of oil. Those jobs which can't be sustained at the $100/bbl and $200/bbl price points need to be terminated, badly. If they can't find a job, they can go do something like manicure lawns with reel mowers, hoes and rakes; drug around by hand in a big red wagon. Nothing but sweat input, all dollars out are income.
A prime example of another hand-waving dismissal by RGR.
Do you even try to think these things through?
Good grief! _________________ A Saudi saying, "My father rode a camel. I drive a car. My son flies a jet-plane. His son will ride a camel."
Live in Arizona? Check out: http://sustainablearizona.org and read my blog.
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