DantesPeak
Expert
Joined: Oct 23, 2004
Posts: 5928
Location: New Jersey
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 Posted: Wed Jun 07, 2006 2:43 pm Post subject: EIA Report - Hurricane Impact on GOM Energy Production |
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The EIA has produced new report entitled “The Impact of Tropical Cyclones on Gulf of Mexico Crude Oil and Natural Gas Production”. It appears to be fairly well done and has lots of interesting graphs and correlations.
The Impact of Tropical Cyclones on on Gulf of Mexico Crude Oil and Natural Gas Production
Warning: 24 Page PDF
EIA explanation of report:
| Quote: | This report examines the historical impacts of tropical cyclones (including tropical depressions, tropical storms, and hurricanes) on Gulf of Mexico crude oil and natural gas production over the period 1960 through 2005, and on refinery operations over the past 20 years. Then, using the seasonal hurricane forecast published by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) in May 2006, together with an estimated historical relationship between tropical cyclones and production impacts, EIA generates possible ranges for total shut-in production during 2006. The report emphasizes the uncertainty of any forecast of shut-in production, due in part to the difficulty of predicting whether Atlantic tropical cyclones will enter the Gulf of Mexico and threaten the oil and gas producing region, as well as to the extent of their potential damage.
In May of each year, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) produces an outlook for the upcoming hurricane season in the Atlantic basin, which includes the Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico. As the season progresses, NOAA fine-tunes its projections. Those projections are driven primarily by their forecasts of the seasonal Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) index, which measures the collective intensity and duration of all tropical named storms and hurricanes in the Atlantic. For 2006, NOAA currently expects the seasonal Atlantic ACE index to range from 118 to 179 (135 percent to 205 percent of the normal level), corresponding to an 80 percent chance of an above-normal hurricane season in 2006. Although that forecast predicts a very active hurricane season, it is considerably lower than the Atlantic activity observed last year, which had an ACE index about 280 percent of the normal level. In addition to the ACE projections, for the 2006 north Atlantic hurricane season, NOAA predicts 13 to16 named tropical cyclones, with 8 to10 becoming hurricanes, of which 4 to 6 could become major hurricanes (Category 3 or higher). |
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