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Peakoil.com :: View topic - The Great Global Warming Whurlitzer
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The Great Global Warming Whurlitzer
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XOVERX
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Joined: Apr 18, 2006
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PostPosted: Sat Jul 01, 2006 7:31 pm    Post subject: The Great Global Warming Whurlitzer Add User to Ignore List Reply with quote

Is global warming true if George W. Bush sez the globe is warming?

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CKJ2fu_Gluo&mode=related&search=

Or should we just keep our head in the sand?

http://video.google.com/videoplay?docid=-7408504973132978571&q=global+warming

Do ya think fossil fuels have anything to do with all this?
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dissident
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PostPosted: Sat Jul 01, 2006 7:53 pm    Post subject: Re: The Great Global Warming Whurlitzer Add User to Ignore List Reply with quote

What is sad is that people will believe what politicians tell them about climate science and not the climate scientists. The so-called skeptics are, by far, not scientists. The handful of scientists that go against the consensus do not have rock solid research on which they stand. Instead they come up with far fetched ideas that wither in the face of scrutiny (e.g. Lindzen's infrared iris, or the supposed lack of a warming trend in satellite observations that was touted a few years back and has been shown to be due to omitting effects from aerosols).
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Kingcoal
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PostPosted: Sat Jul 01, 2006 8:50 pm    Post subject: Re: The Great Global Warming Whurlitzer Add User to Ignore List Reply with quote

There is scientific evidence for global warming and that evidence is reasonably credible. Most scientists will agree that the earth is getting warmer, abet slowly. What is not settled is whether or not this warming period we are now in is abnormal, let alone caused in any way by mankind. There have been many warming and cooling periods in the earth's history - and man wasn't around to cause them.

There is a point of view that I call the "it's all our fault theory," and people who subscribe to this theory label it "global warming." Global warming is simply that; warming. There is no connection to mankind there; that is a separate theory. You really need to add the two theories together and call it "human instigated global warming."
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Lore
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PostPosted: Sat Jul 01, 2006 10:00 pm    Post subject: Re: The Great Global Warming Whurlitzer Add User to Ignore List Reply with quote

Then the last couple of decades of warming are a climatic and statistical oddity since they coincidently coincide with sharp increases in CO2. I ask you, what are the chances of that?
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rwwff
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PostPosted: Sat Jul 01, 2006 10:00 pm    Post subject: Re: The Great Global Warming Whurlitzer Add User to Ignore List Reply with quote

Kingcoal wrote:
You really need to add the two theories together and call it "human instigated global warming."


Already got a name for it in common use:
Anthropogenic Global Warming, usually abrev (AGW).
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rwwff
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PostPosted: Sat Jul 01, 2006 10:04 pm    Post subject: Re: The Great Global Warming Whurlitzer Add User to Ignore List Reply with quote

Lore wrote:
Then the last couple of decades of warming are a climatic and statistical oddity since they coincidently coincide with sharp increases in CO2. I ask you, what are the chances of that?


Actually, you'd have to say the chances are unknown. We don't have a long enough historical record of the needed resolution to make any suggestions about odds of coincidence.

Could be 1 in 3; could be 1 in a million. Flat don't know.

OTOH, I don't think odds of coincidence figure highly into the science of AGW.
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NEOPO
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PostPosted: Sat Jul 01, 2006 10:04 pm    Post subject: Re: The Great Global Warming Whurlitzer Add User to Ignore List Reply with quote

pfft.

Earth warmest in at least 400 years, panel finds

“human activities are responsible for much of the recent warming.”
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Lore
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PostPosted: Sat Jul 01, 2006 10:08 pm    Post subject: Re: The Great Global Warming Whurlitzer Add User to Ignore List Reply with quote

rwwff wrote:
Lore wrote:
Then the last couple of decades of warming are a climatic and statistical oddity since they coincidently coincide with sharp increases in CO2. I ask you, what are the chances of that?


Actually, you'd have to say the chances are unknown. We don't have a long enough historical record of the needed resolution to make any suggestions about odds of coincidence.

Could be 1 in 3; could be 1 in a million. Flat don't know.

OTOH, I don't think odds of coincidence figure highly into the science of AGW.


Do yourself a favor... don't go to Las Vegas! I wouldn't want to bet the planet on it.
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rwwff
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PostPosted: Sat Jul 01, 2006 10:12 pm    Post subject: Re: The Great Global Warming Whurlitzer Add User to Ignore List Reply with quote

Lore wrote:
Do yourself a favor... don't go to Las Vegas! I wouldn't want to bet the planet on it.


I don't gamble; which is another reason that the "odds of coincidence" arguments are completely unpersuasive to me. CO2 either contributes to GW, or it doesn't; and the science so far indicates that it does.
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Lore
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PostPosted: Sat Jul 01, 2006 10:15 pm    Post subject: Re: The Great Global Warming Whurlitzer Add User to Ignore List Reply with quote

rwwff wrote:
CO2 either contributes to GW, or it doesn't; and the science so far indicates that it does.


Exactly!
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dwenergyman
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PostPosted: Sun Jul 02, 2006 10:40 am    Post subject: Re: The Great Global Warming Whurlitzer Add User to Ignore List Reply with quote

I believe any good discussion of global warming should include the story the dimming of the sun. It is important to be aware of a factor that is currently masking the full temperature gains of higher greenhouse gas levels.

NOVA | Dimming the Sun | PBS
http://www.pbs.org/wgbh/nova/sun/
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dissident
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PostPosted: Sun Jul 02, 2006 10:57 am    Post subject: Re: The Great Global Warming Whurlitzer Add User to Ignore List Reply with quote

This is an example of the sort of silly coverage of global warming in the media. Citing the opinion of Bernie Rayno, a meteorologist, is not equivalent to citing the opinion of a climate scientist. Mr. Rayno doesn't have the qualifications to make the ridiculous assertion that he does.

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grabby
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PostPosted: Sun Jul 02, 2006 11:00 am    Post subject: Re: The Great Global Warming Whurlitzer Add User to Ignore List Reply with quote

On my way to work today, the globe was really warm...
It was 85 and it was only 9 am!

This global warming is pretty obvious in the summer.
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rwwff
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PostPosted: Sun Jul 02, 2006 11:13 am    Post subject: Re: The Great Global Warming Whurlitzer Add User to Ignore List Reply with quote

dissident wrote:
Citing the opinion of Bernie Rayno, a meteorologist, is not equivalent to citing the opinion of a climate scientist. Mr. Rayno doesn't have the qualifications to make the ridiculous assertion that he does.


Nor does Jeanne Salvatore.

Basically, they quote Epstein, who follows the mainstream science line, Bernie Rayno who gives a "not our fault" remark on behalf of accuweather, and Jeanne Salvatore that gives the traditional forecast, ie, (since I saw big thunderstorms yesterday...) "We can expect to see thunderstorms..."

This isn't about GW, its the way the media covers everything.
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gg3
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PostPosted: Sun Jul 02, 2006 1:16 pm    Post subject: Re: The Great Global Warming Whurlitzer Add User to Ignore List Reply with quote

The relevant question, that US voters should be relentlessly asking of our elected officials, is, "What if you're wrong?"

If the human-impact advocates are wrong, what happens is economic conversion to non-fossil energy sources e.g. nuclear, wind, solar. Downside impact minimal, since jobs and profits lost in one part of the economy are gained in other parts. And this puts us on better footing to deal with PO.

If the head-in-sand advocates are wrong, what happens is that we do nothing until the climate hits the tipping point, after which things go crash in a manner sufficiently spectacular as to make PO seem like a picnic. And in all probability, the impact would be multiplied by PO.

Either way, PO means a combination of conversion and powerdown, which would be compatible with the conversion needed to deal with climate change. The longer we wait, the fewer options remaining.

As far as economics are concerned, the choice is between "more of the same" if we do-nothing, vs. the potential for another economic boom caused by all the activity in the conversion.

Clearly the do-nothing side is gaining mightily from "more of the same."
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