How then, do we move backwards? How does a society, with most of the people having no clue of future events, move from being dependent on a vast and intertwined network of goods and services produced by the indigenous people of whereever, to a local resource and renewable energy based society, and do so in the timeframe available (20-30 years using the most liberal extimates, 10-20 with resonable estimates, 5-10 with worst case scenarios), all the while prices on everything increasing, world politics getting more militaristic, governments continuously reducing civil liberties, shortages of goods on the market and weather patterns resembling bad Hollywood movies?
Joined: Mar 04, 2005 Posts: 2552 Location: New Zealand
Posted: Tue Jul 18, 2006 11:34 pm Post subject: Running Out of Oil
Running Out of Oil
Quote:
"Proven" oil reserves, oil that's economically and technologically recoverable, are estimated to be more than 1.1 trillion barrels. That's enough oil, at current usage rates, to fuel the world's economy for 38 years, according to Leonardo Maugeri, vice president for the Italian energy company ENI. Mr. Maugeri provides a wealth of information about energy in "Two Cheers for Expensive Oil," published by Foreign Affairs (March/April 2006) and reprinted on the same date in Current.
There are an additional 2 trillion barrels of "recoverable" reserves. Mr. Maugeri says these oil reserves will probably meet the "proven" standard in a few years as technological improvement and increased sub-soil knowledge come online. Estimates of recoverable oil don't include the huge deposits of "unconventional" oil such as Canadian tar sands and U.S. shale oil, plus there are vast areas of our planet yet to be fully explored. For decades, alarmists have claimed we're running out of oil. In 1919, the U.S. Geological Survey predicted that world oil production would peak in nine years. During the 1970s, the Club of Rome report, "The Limits to Growth," said that, assuming no rise in consumption, all known oil reserves would be entirely consumed in just 31 years.
capmag _________________ Human history becomes more and more a race between education and catastrophe. H. G. Wells.
Fatih Birol's motto: leave oil before it leaves us.
Joined: May 15, 2005 Posts: 4144 Location: THE MATRIX
Posted: Wed Jul 19, 2006 12:49 am Post subject: Re: Running Out of Oil
Oh thats hilarious.
Did anyone cetch the other articles on that website...oh man.
These people are just waiting for the ice to melt so they can exploit further.
I think I smell oil, big oil, big oil money going to economists that say what big oil likes to hear.
I thought that 180 bbls of canadian tar sands was added to the proven reserve estimates?
Mr. Williams sites the USGS in 1919 and the Club of Rome in 1970 claiming either "peak" or "all gone" yet if we take the numbers at that time - were they right?
After all the club of rome outlook was way before the big adjustments upwards of OPEC reserves and excluding all oil found to date and I bet that similar reasoning was behind the 1919 USGS assertion.
Of course they can make mistakes but did they is the real question?
Joined: Mar 04, 2005 Posts: 2552 Location: New Zealand
Posted: Wed Jul 19, 2006 1:19 am Post subject: Re: Running Out of Oil
That's exactly my point. There is"enough" oil there for everyone. However, we are not only going to squabble over what is left (e.g. Iraq) but also we will destroy the environment while we go about extracting this (e.g. Arctic and Antarctic). These are the key issues at stake here. Not peak oil. How do you persuade Big Oil and allied politicians to accelerate the generation of clean energy technologies? _________________ Human history becomes more and more a race between education and catastrophe. H. G. Wells.
Fatih Birol's motto: leave oil before it leaves us.
Joined: Oct 17, 2005 Posts: 68 Location: The Netherlands
Posted: Wed Jul 19, 2006 6:08 am Post subject: Re: Running Out of Oil
According to the explanation on the website Reserve Growth for Dummies, it is logical for 'proven' reserves to grow over time, until you run out of 'probable' reserves to eat. As time goes by, engineers learn more about an oil field, and therefor can make a better estimation of the oil that is still present. Therefor, oil companies are normally underestimating their proven reserves at first, only to upgrade 'probable' oil to 'proven reserves' over time. The 'proven' figure is useless for estimating the oil in the field that used to be present or will be extracted in the future. What you really want to have is the 'probable' (50%) figure and the cumulative production so far.
Joined: Jan 18, 2005 Posts: 265 Location: London, UK.
Posted: Wed Jul 19, 2006 6:11 am Post subject: Re: Running Out of Oil
Quote:
During the 1970s, the Club of Rome report, "The Limits to Growth," said that, assuming no rise in consumption, all known oil reserves would be entirely consumed in just 31 years.
This is a common mis-quote and is entirely wrong.
Maybe Mr. Maugeri should actually read the Club of Rome report. _________________ Life results from the non-random selection of randomly generated replicators
Joined: Oct 23, 2004 Posts: 5343 Location: New Jersey
Posted: Wed Jul 19, 2006 7:15 am Post subject: Re: Running Out of Oil
bobbyald wrote:
Quote:
During the 1970s, the Club of Rome report, "The Limits to Growth," said that, assuming no rise in consumption, all known oil reserves would be entirely consumed in just 31 years.
This is a common mis-quote and is entirely wrong.
Maybe Mr. Maugeri should actually read the Club of Rome report.
Yes, I agree.
In the early 1970s, in circumstances I don't want to go into, I was introduced in detail to the Club of Rome report by a MIT professor. However I don't remember anyone involved with the report making the implication that the report was about running out of oil - although I do remember critics of the report making statements like that way back then.
In fact, the report got most all of the major trends right - including the effects of global warming, resource depletion, etc., leading eventually to a likely population crash.
Joined: Dec 02, 2005 Posts: 6276 Location: Oil-addicted Southern Californucopia
Posted: Wed Jul 19, 2006 7:34 am Post subject: Re: Running Out of Oil
Yet another delusional economist wrote:
"That reflects the awesome control that radical environmentalists have over Congress."
ROFLMAO!
Where does this guy get this stuff? He should have a stand-up act! He could have a great career as a comedian! _________________ "Thank you for attending the oil age. We're going to scrape what we can out of these tar pits in Alberta and then shut down the machines and turn out the lights. Goodnight." - seldom_seen
There are an additional 2 trillion barrels of "recoverable" reserves. Mr. Maugeri says these oil reserves will probably meet the "proven" standard in a few years as technological improvement and increased sub-soil knowledge come online.
Apparently Mr. Maugeri doesn’t spend much time reading the news.
We are seeing more and more marginal fields left undeveloped as the cost of exploration and development skyrocket. This is a trend that I would expect to continue over the next few years as oil prices continue to escalate. One third of drilling costs is the cost of energy, as the cost of energy increases so does the cost of exploration and development. As the cost of development skyrockets more fields become, (think deep water, deep wells), economically unfeasible. It is apparent that the expanding oil development era is over; maybe someone should inform Mr. Maugeri.
Joined: Oct 12, 2004 Posts: 989 Location: Where walking makes you a wierdo
Posted: Wed Jul 19, 2006 11:01 am Post subject: Re: Running Out of Oil
bobbyald wrote:
Quote:
During the 1970s, the Club of Rome report, "The Limits to Growth," said that, assuming no rise in consumption, all known oil reserves would be entirely consumed in just 31 years.
This is a common mis-quote and is entirely wrong.
Maybe Mr. Maugeri should actually read the Club of Rome report.
I have read many cornocopian claims that the Club of Rome Limits to Growth report was a failure. Is there somewhere online that tracks the report's actual predictions and their accuracy?
I think Matt Simmons wrote something about the LTG oil prections and how the actual predictions were closer than what the critics claim. Anyone got a link for that? _________________ The knowledge to survive post peak will not come from our laboratories. It will come from our museums.
Posted: Wed Jul 19, 2006 12:52 pm Post subject: Re: Running Out of Oil
You're welcome. That report is one of the things that got me looking into the peak oil thing. It also gives Simmons' current writings a bit more cred with me. _________________ Civilization is a personal choice.
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